Constituency Profile: Cypress Hills

Click here to get a map of Cypress Hills constituency

This marks the first in a series of 58 constituency profiles in lead up to the November 7, 2011 provincial election in Saskatchewan. We start things off today with the profile for the Cypress Hills constituency in the extreme southwest corner of Saskatchewan.

For decades the riding now known as Cypress Hills formed the lynchpin or cornerstone of the old Liberal 'L', the 15-odd seats along the Alberta and United States borders that the Saskatchewan Liberal Party could always count on winning. This voting history of this area is very much on the political right. David Wylie of the Conservatives was the first MLA for this area, from 1905 until 1917 when he lost to Alexander Colquhoun of the Liberals. This seat was then in the Liberal camp in the 1921, 1925, 1929, 1934 and 1938 elections. In fact in 1925, Peter Hyde was acclaimed as the Liberal MLA for Maple Creek (as this constituency was known until 1995). The most noteworthy MLA from this period was George Spence from 1927 to 1934. Spence held several cabinet portfolios in the Liberal dynasty, including Highways, Railways, Labour and Industries, Agriculture and Public Works. Spence was also elected in 1925 as the federal Liberal MP for Maple Creek. The Liberal streak ended in 1944 with the CCF sweep and the election of Beatrice Trew in this riding. Trew was the grandmother of Kim Trew, who has just retired as the MLA for Regina Coronation Park after 25 years.

Trew's hold on Maple Creek didn't last long. In 1948, Alex Cameron of Richmound took back Maple Creek for the Liberals, and would remain the MLA for this area through the 1952, 1956, 1960, 1964 and 1967 elections until his defeat in 1971. Cameron was the Liberal finance critic through the 1950s, and was runner-up in the 1959 leadership race. When the Liberals ended their 20 years in opposition in 1964, Cameron joined the Thatcher Government as Minister of Natural Resources and played a key role in shotgunning the rise of the Potash industry in Saskatchewan.

The 1970s was a period of transition in the Maple Creek riding. The NDP edged out a narrow win here in 1971, but the Liberals took back the seat in 1975. In the historic 1978 election that saw the first collapse of the Saskatchewan Liberals, this riding went from the Liberals to the PC column. The new MLA was Joan Duncan, who would be re-elected here in 1982 and 1986. Duncan was one of the first women to become a cabinet minister in Saskatchewan and held several cabinet portfolios in the Devine Government including Tourism and Northern Affairs. Duncan was dropped from cabinet in 1989 and didn't run for re-election in 1991.

In 1991, the PC Party hung onto this seat in spite of the NDP landslide win. Jack Goohsen from Gull Lake was the new MLA here. Goohsen was left out of the creation of the Saskatchewan Party in 1997, likely because he was charged at the time of trying to buy sex from a prostitute. Goohsen was later convicted of that charge and resigned as the MLA for Cypress Hills. In the June 28, 1999 by-election, Cypress Hills was won by Wayne Elhard of the Saskatchewan Party, making him the first elected Sask Party MLA. When the Sask Party won government in 2007, Elhard was made Provincial Secretary and Minister of Highways and Infrastructure.

To date, none of the other parties have nominated anyone to run against Elhard. This is a testament to Elhard's personal popularity and his iron grip on the riding. In 2003 Elhard was elected in Cypress Hills with over 75% of the vote, and there is no reason to believe that he will have any difficulty getting re-elected this time, especially if he is acclaimed!

Another weekend, another leadership ballot

The Alberta Liberals elected a new leader last weekend. The Alberta Tories held a leadership ballot this weekend. This coming weekend it will be the turn of the Saskatchewan Greens to elect a new leader.

The cutoff for nominations is tomorrow. So far Victor Lau and Brendan Cross are the only names put forward for the leadership. It will be interesting to see if any 'dark horse' candidates jump in at the last minute.

Brad Wall comes to the aid of Ethical Oil

Brad Wall is socking it to American environmental activists. This is consistent with the Premier' initiatives aimed at advancing the provincial economic boom. We can like expect to hear more about this from Premier Wall during the provincial election campaign and beyond as the Saskatchewan side of the oilsands revs into action.

Brendan Cross seeks Green Party leadership

No, this is not the theatre of the absurd, you read the headline correctly. Brendan Cross is running in the September 25 leadership race for the Green Party of Saskatchewan. Interim leader Victor Lau is also in the running. May the best man win!

No challengers yet in Weyburn-Big Muddy and Cypress Hills

According to the most recent information available, the Saskatchewan Party MLAs in Weyburn-Big Muddy and Cypress Hills don't have any nominated challengers yet. Dustin Duncan and Wayne Elhard are the two MLAs in question. It has been decades since an incumbent MLA was acclaimed in this province. We here at Sask Politics 1 will let you know if and when there is new information on candidates in either of these constituencies.

Saskatchewan NDP promise a second bridge for Prince Albert

The Diefenbaker Bridge in Prince Albert.

The Saskatchewan NDP have promised a new bridge for Prince Albert if they win the November 7 provincial election. For those of you who are not intimately familiar with Prince Albert, the city only has only bridge that spans the North Saskatchewan River. That bridge is the Diefenbaker Bridge, and it will have to be renovated sooner or later at great cost and inconvenience to the city. There were plans years ago for a second bridge at 6th Avenue East, but the land for the bridge was too expensive for the city to purchase at the time. I don't know if this issue will sway a lot of votes or not, but it will certainly get people in Prince Albert talking, since the city has needed a second bridge for a long time now.

Former NDP MLA savages party record on health care reform

This link will take you to the story. This can't be a very welcome development for the party that lays claim to the legacy of Tommy Douglas. The timing of Dr. Draper's comments is also likely unwelcome by the New Democrats, given that the party is a life and death struggle leading up to the November 7 election. On the other hand, NDP fortunes can't possibly get any worse - perhaps party fortunes will begin to rebound soon.

New Democrats respond to Praxis poll

 Saskatchewan NDP Leader Dwain Lingenfelter, image courtesy of Regina Leader Post

You can read about it here.
I thought the New Democrat response to the polling was fine, given how difficult the numbers are for them. They know this provincial election is an uphill battle, and they are honest about it. Saying that they want an issues-based campaign is a good way to go - the NDP may be able to boost their turnout on November 7 by drawing attention to issues that are important to voters.

A quick glimpse at the coming contest in Moose Jaw North

Moose Jaw North NDP candidate Derek Hassen, image courtesy of the Moose Jaw Times Herald.

This Moose Jaw Times Herald story on the coming contest in Moose Jaw North is worth your time to read. This is just a taste of the type of intense contests that will be underway in about a dozen seats this fall. Be sure to stay tuned to Sask Politics 1 in the days ahead, as we are just days away from launching our series on each of the 58 constituencies where ballots will be cast on November 7th.

When will the Sask Party stumble?

Will Chabun has written a very interesting piece about the future fortunes of the Saskatchewan Party. It is a very curious thing - the Sask Party has enjoyed a steady rise since its inception in 1997. It does not appear that the Sask Party will falter anytime soon. Anyhow, be sure to read on and leave your comments behind!

Elections Saskatchewan Website Completely Revamped

We are happy to report that the people over at Elections Saskatchewan have completely updated their website.

Finally!! Sorry, but it was fairly unattractive and onerous... not at all a place one would want to send a new or undecided voter, in hopes that they might get excited about politics.

The link for the site has not changed - it is still http://www.elections.sk.ca/ - but the look, feel and functionality has.

On first glance, it appears to be user-friendly and well-done. Bright colours and easy to understand, and follow, links make it a site one might want spend some time in.

This looks like a site that someone put some thought into to make sure it would appeal to 'normal folk' and politicos alike.

Well done!!

The recent public opinion poll

The Praxis Analytics polling released this past week is very interesting. It bears repeating the numbers here; Sask Party 63.4%, NDP 26.1%, Liberal 5.9%, Green 3% and 'Others' 1.5%. 800 folks were sampled during the last week of August and the first week of September.

The implications of these results should be obvious to anyone with a functioning brain. With the Sask Party now polling over 60% provincewide, it now commands most of the free enterprise vote and some of the NDP electoral base too. Brad Wall and the Sask Party have the potential with these numbers to win every one of the 58 seats in the Legislature. This means MLAs like Warren McCall in the fabled NDP stronghold of Regina Elphinstone-Centre are even in the fight of their lives. The NDP will struggle this fall to win any seats at all.

It appears that Brad Wall's popularity is growing,and the hatred of Dwain Lingenfelter is also growing. Wall has played all of moves right, and the province's population and economy both continue to grow hand in hand. Meanwhile 'Link' completely underestimated his Sask Party opponents when he returned to Saskatchewan in 2009, and thought he would cruise back into government easily. It will be most curious to see which of its 20 seats the NDP can hang onto on November 7.

The Enumerators Are Out

Having just completed our enumeration I thought I'd let people know about a few things that may be helpful for some households.

First, all voters will be required to produce identification at the poll, providing proof of name, and physical address. More information on this can be found at www.elections.sk.ca

Advance Polls will be held:
Tuesday, November 1st through Friday, November 4th, 2011
from 3 p.m. to 10 p.m. CST.
And on Saturday, November 5th, 2011
from 12 noon until 7 p.m. CST.
Election Day is November 7th.
Again, further information on this is available at www.elections.sk.ca

In my home, it is likely at least one of us will be away for work during the advance polls and on election day. When I asked about this, I was surprised and happy to be handed an application for a mail in ballot, called Absentee Voter Information form E-127, complete with an envelope to mail it in with. The number to call for information about absentee voting is 1-855-879-8013.

Enumerators are easy to spot. They are wearing neon yellow vests, and come to your door with a clipboard. The process is simple and quick, and the gal doing the job in my area was well-informed and prepared.

This job - done well - makes a big difference to voters, and candidates alike. A big thank you from SaskPolitics1 to those enumerating this time around.

New provincial election poll

Be sure to check out our new provincial election poll - tell us which party you plan to vote for on November 7, and be sure to tell us why here.

More reflection on the shakeup in the Green Party of Saskatchewan

Yesterday's big news about the shakeup within the Green Party of Saskatchewan is very interesting, and merits further analysis. After all, it is not every day that the leader of a political party quits and joins another party.

So what are we to make of Larissa Shasko's departure from Leader of the Green Party? The irony is that Shasko has generated more media attention with her move to Yens Pedersen's NDP campaign in Regina South than she did as Leader of the Greens. One cannot help but wonder what motivated Shasko to make this defection. The timing is very deliberate, obviously timed to sting the Greens as we are now just over 2 months away from voting day. Regardless of whether one sees Shasko's defection as a betrayal or a smart move, the perception that this move was intended to hurt the Greens is self-evident. It can also be argued that some in the Saskatchewan NDP have come to see the seatless Greens as a threat to their own electoral fortunes this fall. It may very well be that Shasko has now burned her Green bridges behind her. But it may also be that this move sparks a rapid political rise within the NDP with for Shasko, who knows?

The departure of Shasko from the Green Party leadership and the subsequent rise of Victor Lau to that same post places the Greens at an electoral crossroads. While Lau has not achieved an electoral success yet, he is a seasoned political figure in our political culture. Regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees with Lau's political beliefs, it can likely be agreed that Lau is well spoken as a would-be politician and handles himself well. But only time will tell whether the Greens have been handed a setback or an opportunity. We will soon find out one way or another.

Greens Have a New Leader

One can never say politics in Saskatchewan is boring. Just like that, things change!

Today, Larrisa Shasko announced she is stepping down as leader of the Green Party in Saskatchewan. Victor Lau, as deputy leader, is now the new leader.

Mr. Lau is the candidate for Regina Douglas Park. The current MLA for this constituency is NDP Leader Dwayne Lingenfelter.

Two provincial party leaders running in the same seat? Of course, more will follow on this.

And it is on...

The last gorgeous long weekend of summer is over. The Riders won. Labour Day activities were observed and enjoyed. The ads have begun.

In sixty-two days most people in this province will head to their local polling station to cast a ballot.

What can we expect between now and then? Well, lots.

There will be lots of advertising, both prior to and of course after, the official writ period - another month away, by the way.

All candidates, should be on the doors en masse. Those who are truly serious about actually hearing what people have to say, have been at this for quite some time now and some are well on their way to completing follow-up canvases of the constituency they are seeking office in.

We can expect the so-called 'special interest' groups - which isn't really fair, they simply are organizations bringing information forward - to increase the volume, intensity and frequency of their messages as well.

And, we can expect the main provincial campaign between the leaders to ramp up significantly.

What about this site?

This site is geared to be about sanity. A level playing field.

This is the place where busy people will be able to come, to quickly gauge the tones and issues of the day quickly and easily. The twitter feed at the top, direct from the parties, puts all of their words together in one place. The twitter feed along the side - has what others are saying about Saskatchewan Politics at any given moment. Those with no connection to Twitter can still reap its benefits here.

This is the place where people who are wanting to privately learn more about the issues and the parties - young people, the un-engaged - can come to easily find the information they seek. There will be links and pages to help people find candidate websites, Facebook pages, and Twitter feeds (if they so wish), and there are links to Elections Saskatchewan pages and other places where pertinent fact-based information can be found. It is our goal to provide information in such a way, that people who have rarely, or never, voted before will be able to build the confidence and interest to do so privately and at their leisure.

It is our goal, to serve both the busy politico and the learning voter.

Candidates, campaign teams, and active volunteers, this site is here to help you engage voters. When you encounter the people who you sense are tuned out, not just from you, but from the process, offer them an opportunity to explore on their own. Sure, you lose a bit of control over the message, but it is human nature for people to respect the person who shows them respect. Please trust that will count for something.

Also, candidates and campaign teams. As pages go up here linking our visitors through to your contact pages and information, please take a moment and check your links. If there are any changes that need to be made, please email us at saskpolitics1@gmail.com. It is our most sincere desire to present a fair and accurate platform for everyone.

As a final note... Congratulations to each and every person who has opted to put their name forward for election. Many have considered it, but you have done it. You have our most sincere admiration and respect, we hope we serve you well in your quest to ultimately serve others.

Our best wishes to everyone involved. The race is now on.

Happy Labour Day everyone

We at Sask Politics 1 would like to take a moment to wish everyone a Happy Labour Day. This is a day when all working people in the province have the opportunity to take a break and take stock of their working lives. This year, Labour Day has added importance in Saskatchewan. It is very likely that with a fixed election date of November 7, the provincial election campaign will unofficially begin tomorrow. The election writ will not be dropped until the end of September, but the parties are expected to release their full advertising blitz and intense on-the-ground campaigning from this week onward. Please be sure to check this website every day during the provincial election campaign for new and up-to-date information on the election campaign as it unfolds.

Will voter apathy drive down turnout on November 7?

Will voter apathy drive down voter turnout on November 7? It is tempting to say yes and leave it at that. Certainly voter apathy will arguably be the greatest challenge Premier Brad Wall faces in the election campaign this fall. The onus is on the Premier to motivate his own supporters to not take the outcome this November as a foregone conclusion and get them to vote. In the face of overwhelming odds, Dwain Lingenfelter and the Saskatchewan NDP face a similar task. However, fear of annihilation at the polls may actually motivate New Democrats to get out and work for the party, Link or no Link.

Thus the challenge facing Premier Wall is potentially more elusive. Or maybe not. Being the Premier of Saskatchewan, Wall can potentially provide incentives for party members to work this fall, with promises of jobs, board appointments and the like. Given his powerful orator abilities, it may also be that Wall can fire up his supporters with great speeches. Whatever the case, it is up to the Premier and his key people to ensure that Sask Party members are highly motivated to work hard and ensure a landslide election win.

Will there be any surprises on election night?

The question being posed here is, will there be any surprises in the election results on November 7? Of course there will be - there are always surprises in election results! However the outcome of the 2011 election has been confidently predicted by political pundits years in advance - this means that we are guaranteed to see at least one surprise on November 7!

So what might this surprise be? The conventional wisdom is that the Saskatchewan Party will gain seats at the expense of the NDP as it cruises to a second term. Given the consistent public polling results that have been released in recent years, it is unlikely that this conventional wisdom will not come to pass.

Therefore the coming surprises may have something to do with the magnitude of the Saskatchewan Party's victory and the scope of defeat for the Saskatchewan NDP. Therefore two possibilities emerge - either the Sask Party could gain more seats and the NDP could lose more seats than expected, or the Sask Party could gain fewer eats and the NDP could lose fewer seats than expected. Unless there is a dramatic shift in opinion before November 7, we are unlikely to see the NDP build on the 20 seats that they currently hold in the Legislature. But this doesn't mean that the NDP can't defeat any incumbent Sask Party MLAs.

There are 3 seats where Sask Party MLAs are vulnerable to NDP victories this fall. The margins of victory for Darryl Hickie in Prince Albert Carlton, Warren Michelson in Moose Jaw North and Jeremy Harrison in Meadow Lake were all within 100 votes last time. If you add the votes that the Liberal candidates in those constituencies received in 2007 to the Sask Party total, the pluralities of victory for Hickie, Michelson and Harrison grow to 660 votes, 236 votes and 431 votes respectively. Of the 3, it appears that Harrison is the most vulnerable to a surprise NDP win, since a plurality of 236 votes is not an insurmountable lead. However, at this point there is provincewide momentum for the Saskatchewan Party, and likely many new voters in these ridings who are originally from out-of-province. Thus the challenge for the Sask Party and the Sask NDP will be command momentum in this marginal ridings and to deliver enough identified supporters to the polls to ensure a victory. Who ever said Saskatchewan politics is boring?!