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Saturday, October 29, 2011

Constituency Profile: Carrot River Valley

Carrot River Valley constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on Carrot River Valley constituency, please click on this link.

Carrot River Valley constituency came into being for the 1995 provincial election. It is a merger of most of the old Nipawin and Kelsey-Tisdale ridings. The first MLA for Carrot River Valley was New Democrat Andy Renaud, a realtor from Tisdale who was the MLA for Kelsey-Tisdale from 1991 to 1995. Keley-Tisdale had a long history of electing CCF/NDP MLAs, and Renaud caught the tail end of that tradition. Renaud captured 43 percent of the vote in 1995, but in 1999 he slipped to 39 percent and Carl Kwiatkowski of the Sask Party roared to victory here with 50 percent of the vote. Kwiatkowski had a promising political career but died suddenly early in 2003. In the subsequent by-election, former Reform MP Allan Kerpan won Carrot River Valley for the Sask Party again with 48 percent of the vote. Kerpan was narrowly re-elected in the 2003 election with 46 percent of the vote, compared to 41 percent for New Democrat Mark Pitzel. But Kerpan stepped aside for 2007 and Fred Bradshaw, a pilot from Carrot River, kept this seat for the SP with 61 percent of the vote.

Bradshaw is seeking a second term on November 7. Given that there will be no Liberal candidate in Carrot River Valley this time and the current momentum in Saskatchewan politics, it would not be beyond the pale for Bradshaw to win again with 65 to 70 percent of the vote. History will also be made in this election with the first Green candidate to appear on the ballot in Carrot River Valley.


Friday, October 28, 2011

First public opinion polling of the campaign

You can read about the results here. It's official then. Both polls confirm that the Sask Party has cracked the 60 percent level of support. This puts the Sask Party in the running for over 51 seats across the province, NDP zero to 7. A lot will depend now on the momentum of the Sask Party, and the traditional ability of the NDP to mobilize their voters on November 7.

Your feedback on the polling is most welcome.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Your thoughts on the provincial election campaign

What are your thoughts on the provincial election campaign so far? Do you find the election exciting? boring? We want to know!

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Housing is a big issue in this election campaign

This is not a surprise. I saw this coming from a mile away, as the old saying goes. The upward pressure on rent and the cost of living is terrifically strong, and shows no sign of weakening. I'll be curious to see how this issue plays out on 7 November.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Leaders Debate

Did you watch the Leaders Debeate on TV tonight? Why or why not?

Monday, October 24, 2011

Sask Greens release election platform

And there you have it. The Greens, under the leadership of Victor Lau, have really been whipping things up in this election. Who knows - maybe we'll be hearing more from him in the days ahead? Stranger things have happened.

Sask. Liberals blast the Sask Party, Sask NDP for spending promises

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Constituency Profile: Melfort


Melfort constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on the Melfort constituency, please click here.

The modern version of the Melfort constituency has been around since the 1971 general election. The MLA elected that year was Arthur Thibault of the NDP. Thibault was first elected with the CCF in a 1959 by-election in Kinistino, where Premier Douglas first unveiled his plans for a medicare scheme. Thibault retired in 1975 and was replaced by Norman Vickar. Vickar would serve in the Blakeney Government as the Minister of Industry and Commerce, and is the only person of the Jewish faith to have ever served as a Saskatchewan cabinet minister. In 1982 Vickar was defeated in the "Monday Night Massacre" that swept the NDP from office and replaced it with the Devine Conservatives. The new MLA was Grant Hodgins, a local auctioneer. Hodgins would become a big player in the Devine Government, serving as Government House Leader and Minister of Highways and Transportation. Early in 1991 Hodgins abruptly quit the PC caucus and sat as an independent, having expressed his disgust over the Fair Share Saskatchewan controversy. Hodgins did not seek re-election in 1991 and was replaced by Melfort Mayor Carol Carson. Carson served in Roy Romanow's 'war cabinet' as Minister of the Environment and Public Safety. But Carson was defeated in 1991, ending the NDP's long dominance in the riding. Carson was defeated by Liberal candidate Rod Gantefoer, a Melfort businessman. Gantefoer was part of the Liberal caucus revolt that overthrew Lynda Haverstock as party leader, and in 1997 Gantefoer was one of the founding MLAs of the Saskatchewan Party. Rod sought the Sask Party leadership in 1998 but was runner-up to Elwin Hermanson. Gantefoer was easily re-elected in 1999, 2003 and 2007. When the Sask Party came to power, Gantefoer was made Minister of Finance. Gantefoer announced in February of last year that unfortunately he was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease, and he is not seeking re-election. The Sask Party has nominated Melfort Mayor Kevin Phillips to run in this election. Gantefoer was easy re-elected in 2007 with 65 percent of the vote. Without a Liberal candidate this time and the Sask Party's strong momentum in this election, it is not beyond that pale that Phillips could win here with well over 70 percent of the vote.

Constituency Profile: Arm River-Watrous


Arm River-Watrous constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information about Arm River-Watrous constituency, please click on this link.

Arm River-Watrous was first contested in 2003, after the merging of the former Arm River and Watrous constituencies. The only MLA for this constituency has been Greg Brkich of the Saskatchewan Party. Brkich was first elected in Arm River in 1999, and is seeking re-election on November 7.

The composition of this constituency is very interesting. The Arm River portion of the riding has a strong anti-NDP tradition, which pockets of NDP strength remain in the Watrous portion of the seat. Brkich was re-elected in 2007 with 58 percent of the vote, compared to 29 percent for the NDP. But without a Liberal candidate in Arm River-Watrous this time and given the huge momentum behind the Sask Party, Brkich is likely to win this time with 65 to 70 percent of the vote.

Constituency Profile: Last Mountain-Touchwood


Last Mountain-Touchwood constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on the Last Mountain-Touchwood constituency, please click on this link.

The Last Mountain-Touchwood constituency was considered a bellwether riding in Saskatchewan politics until recently, and remains one of the most politically active regions in rural Saskatchewan. This constituency was formed in 1975 from the merger of the old Last Mountain and Touchwood constituencies. This seat now stretches from the eastern shore of Last Mountain lake to the western outskirts of Melville.

Important figures from the former Last Mountain constituency include Liberal MLA Sam Latta and Russ Brown with the CCF. Notable MLAs from Touchwood include Tom Johnston of the CCF and Liberal George Trapp.

The first MLA for Last Mountain-Touchwood was elected in the historic 1975 provincial election. Gordon MacMurchy of the NDP was actually first elected in Last Mountain in 1971. In 1975 he cruised to an easy victory. MacMurchy served in cabinet for the full 11 years that the Blakeney New Democrats were in power, including the powerful post of Minister of Agriculture. MacMurchy was re-elected in 1978 but lost in 1982 during the "Monday Night Massacre" along with most of his New Democrat colleagues. The new MLA in 1982 was Progressive Conservative Arnold Tusa of Cupar. Tusa became Speaker of the Legislature in 1986. It should be noted here that a good many past MLAs for this constituency have served as Speaker. Tusa was defeated in 1991 by New Democrat Dale Flavel of Silton. Flavel was re-elected in 1995 but lost in 1999 when the NDP base in Rural Saskatchewan collapsed. Flavel was defeated by Saskatchewan Party candidate Glen Hart of Cupar. Hart's re-election in 2003 ended Last Mountain-Touchwood's reputation as a bellwether constituency. Hart was easily re-elected in 2007 and in spite of a stiff challenge to his nomination, Hart is back in this election and is seeking re-election.

In 2007, Hart won with 60 percent of the vote compared to 31 percent for the NDP candidate. Without a Liberal candidate in Last Mountain-Touchwood this time, and given the momentum behind the Sask Party, it is very likely that Hart will be re-elected on November 7, perhaps in the neighbourhood of 65 to 70 percent of the vote.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Candidate nominations are now closed in the election

You can click here to see the finalized list of candidates, as of the close of nominatinos at 2 p.m. today.It is significant that the Greens are running a full slate of 58 candidates for the first time in their history, and that 41 percent of their candidates are women.
One constituency has five candidates, that being Biggar. Besides the Sask Party, NDP and Greens, there is also a PC candidate and the leader of the Western Independence Party.
For the first time in their 106 year history, the Liberals are only running 12 candidates, and only 1 in rural Saskatchewan. This means its official - the Liberals are now a fringe party.

Sask Party candidate apologizing for comment about First Nations revenue sharing

This was bound to happen sooner or later.   So far none of the parties have had to boot any of their candidates.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Constituency Profile: Indian Head-Milestone

Indian Head-Milestone Constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on the Indian Head-Milestone Constituency, please click on this link.

The Indian Head-Milestone Constituency is a relatively new entity in Saskatchewan politics, having first seen the light of day in 1995 from a merger of the old Indian Head-Wolseley and Bengough-Milestone ridings.
Some noteworthy former MLAs represented these ridings before 1995. Doug McFarlane and Cy MacDonald were cabinet ministers in the Thatcher Government, with MacDonald being Minister of Social Services. Graham Taylor was Minister of Public Participation in the Devine Government, and runner up to Devine in the 1979 Saskatchewan PC leadership race. In Bengough-Milestone, Bob Pickering had been a Minister in the Devine Government, and July Bradley was Minister of Highways in the Romanow Government.

The first MLA for Indian Head-Milestone was Lorne Scott of the NDP. Scott was first elected in 1991 in Indian Head-Wolseley. Scott was swept out in 1999 in the Saskatchewan Party tide that washed over Rural Saskatchewan. Scott was replaced by Don McMorris; Don got 48 percent of the vote compared to 29 percent for Scott. McMorris went on to easy re-election in 2003 and 2007, garnering 49 and 64 percent of the vote respectively McMorris is running for re-election on November 7th. Without a Liberal candidate to split the free enterprise voting base, McMorris is expected to cruise to re-election in the neighbourhood of 70 percent of the vote, or more.

Constituency Profile: Canora-Pelly

Canora-Pelly constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on the Canora-Pelly Constituency, please click here.

Canora-Pelly is a fusion of the old Canora and Pelly constituencies. It first appeared on Saskatchewan's political map in 1995 and has had only one MLA in that time. Ken Krawetz won by only 50 votes as a Liberal in 1995, beating Pelly New Democrat MLA Ron Harper. Harper was later elected in Regina Northeast in 1999 and will retire on November 7.

Krawetz was was of the founding eight MLAs who formed the Saskatchewan Party on August 8, 1997. Prior to that Ken contested the 1996 Saskatchewan Liberal leadership race. Krawetz finished 3rd on the 2nd ballot, just 13 votes behind Tom Hengen. It has been speculated that had Krawetz finished ahead of Hengen on that ballot, that Krawetz would have beaten Melenchuk in the leadership race, and political history in this province would have unfolded differently.

Krawetz became Official Opposition Leader in 1996 after Jim Melenchuk became Liberal Leader and was without a seat in the Legislature. Krawetz held the post after switching parties and remained Leader of the Official Opposition until 1999 when Sask Party Leader Elwin Hermanson took his seat in the Assembly.

Krawetz went on to easy re-election as a Saskatchewan Party MLA in 1999 with 58 percent of the vote, 53 percent in 2003 and 64 percent in 2007. Since 2003 Krawetz has held the title of Deputy Premier. In 2007 Premier Wall named Krawetz Minister of Education, and last year Ken was moved into the Finance portfolio. Given Krawetz' popularity among his constituents and his high profile in the Wall Government, it seems extremely unlikely that Krawetz will lose on November 7th.

Constituency Profile: Thunder Creek

Thunder Creek constituency is outlined in red on the map above.
For more information on Thunder Creek constituency, please click this link.

The Thunder Creek constituency first emerged from the ether in 1975 provincial election, an event that is still an important watershed in modern Saskatchewan politics. The first MLA for this riding was Colin Thatcher, son of former Liberal Premier Ross Thatcher. Colin was elected as a Liberal, but by 1977 he could see that the party was being destroyed by the Regina lawyers and their friends, so he jumped to the PC Party. Thatcher was easily re-elected in 1978 and in 1982. Colin became Minister of Energy in the Devine Government. In 1984, Thatcher was stripped of his constituency after he was convicted of murdering his ex-wife JoAnn Wilson. In the March 1985 by-election, Thatcher was succeeded by fellow Tory Rick Swenson. Swenson would serve in the Devine Cabinet for the remainder of his time in government. Swenson was re-elected in 1986 and in 1991, but retired in 1995. Swenson was replaced by Liberal candidate Gerry Aldridge, the brother of long-time NDP strategist Garry Aldridge. In 1999, Thunder Creek flipped to Lyle Stewart of the Saskatchewan Party, and has remained in the Sask Party column ever since. It is expected that Stewart will be easily re-elected on November 7th.


For more information on the Thunder Creek constituency, please click here.

Constituency Profile: Melville Saltcoats

Melville-Saltcoats constituency is outlined in red

For more information on this constituency, please click here.

The Melville-Saltcoats constituency is a relatively new creation in Saskatchewan politics. It was formed for the 2003 provincial election from a merger of the old Melville and Saltcoats constituencies. 

Melville constituency goes back to the 1934 provincial election. Giants in Saskatchewan Liberal politics stand out in this seat's glorious past, including the legendary Jimmy Gardiner and his son Wilf Gardiner. A third notable Liberal from Melville's storied past is Ron Osika, who was first elected in 1995 and served in the infamous Coalition Government as Speaker and later Minister of SaskWater, the SLGA and SPMC. He lost in 2003.

Saltcoats was one of the first constituencies in 1905. It also boasts many big names from Saskatchewan Liberal lore. The first MLA for Saltcoats was Thomas MacNutt, who was also the first Speaker of the Saskatchewan Legislature. MacNutt, Saskatchewan is named after him. MacNutt was followed by James Calder, the number 2 man in the Saskatchewan Liberal dynasty and defacto Deputy Premier. Asmundur 'Mindy' Loptson was the MLA here from 1934 until 1960 and was briefly interim Leader. Jim Snedker was Speaker of the Legislature during the Thatcher Government. Bob Bjornerud was first elected as a Liberal in 1995.

One New Democrat MLA stands out in Saltcoats, that being Edgar Kaeding, who served as Minister of Agriculture in the Blakeney Government. One Tory MLA stands out from the Melville riding, that being Grant Schmidt, who was Minister of Social Services in the Devine Government.

Bjornerud was one of the founding Saskatchewan Party MLAs in 1997, and is Minister of Agriculture in the Wall Government. Bjornerud beat Osika in the newly created Melville-Saltcoats in 2003, 39 to 32 percent, with Schmidt running as an independent and getting 18 percent. In 2007, Bjornerud  won with 62 percent of the vote. Bjornerud is running for re-election on November 7. There will be no Liberal candidate in this riding, which is remarkable given its past. It is espected that Bjornerud will be easily re-elected here, in the neighbourhood of 70 percent of the vote possibly more.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Different ways of reaching voters.

The way political parties reach voters is changing with the times. This election campaign is very interesting if for no other reason.

Constituency Profile: Wood River


Wood River constituency outlined in red on the map.

For more information on the Wood River constituency, please click here.

Of all of the 58 constituencies in Saskatchewan politics, the Wood River seat has a truly unique history. This riding is ground zero in Saskatchewan Liberal politics. It is the only constituency in the province, with current or previous boundaries, to have a Liberal MLA in every decade of the province's history. Until 1944, only Liberals represented this part of the province in the Legislature. Past MLAs worthy of note from this part of south-west Saskatchewan include Ted Culliton, Lionel Coderre, Karl Klein and Ralph Goodale of the Liberals, Ted Gross, Allan Engel, Thomas Bentley and Dwain Lingenfelter for the CCF/NDP, and Jack Wolfe for the Tories.

Wood River first came into existence in 1995 with the merging of the Assiniboia-Gravelbourg and Shaunavon constituencies. The First MLA was Glen McPherson, a Liberal who jumped from the NDP in 1993. McPherson got 48 percent of the vote, a plurality of over 1,500 votes over New Democrat Allan Engel. McPherson was part of the Liberal caucus intrigue that lead to the forced resignation of Lynda Haverstock in November 1995, just five months after the provincial election. McPherson went on to get re-elected in 1999, but only by a one-vote margin over Yogi Huyghebaert with the Saskatchewan Party. Rather than fight a court challenge from the Sask Party and looking at a hopeless situation with the Liberals in a coalition government with the NDP, McPherson resigned as the MLA for Wood River early in 2000 and faded from the political scene fairly quickly. In the fall 2000 by-election in Wood River, Huyghebaert won a commanding victory with over 65 percent of the vote. Yogi had received about 40 percent of the vote the previous year. Huyghebaert went on to get re-elected in 2003 and in 2007, with 55 and 70 percent of the vote respectively.

For the 2011 election, Huyghebaert is running for re-election, having served in cabinet for the past 2 years as the Minister of Corrections, Public Safety and Policing. His opponents are
Randy Gaudry of Willow Bunch for the NDP and Luke Bonsan of the Greens. Incredibly, it appears there will be no Liberal candidate in Wood River this time. Given the long Liberal history in this seat, it is nothing short of astonishing that there will be no Liberal candidate in Wood River this time. It would be like the NDP not running a candidate in Regina Elphinstone-Centre.