Priming the Pump Part 2 - The Saskatchewan Party

Welcome to Part 2 of Priming the Pump for the November 7, 2011 provincial election in Saskatchewan. today's installment looks at the governing Saskatchewan Party. The Saskatchewan Party is a relatively new phenomenon in the province, having been formed in 1997 as a coalition of classical liberal and conservative voters. 4 Liberal and 4 PC MLAs came together to form the party. By all measuring sticks, it has been enormously successful, having gone from 8 seats in 1997 to 10 by June 1999 and 25 by September 1999, 28 in 2003, and 38 in 2007. With 4 years of governing experience under its belt and a Premier more popular than any other in this province since the days of Tommy Douglas, the Sask Party is headed for re-election this fall. Polling done recently by Insightrix shows the Sask Party standing at 58 percent of the vote provincewide.

Let's reflect on that for a moment. At 58 percent provincewide, that means 6 out of every 10 people who plan to vote this fall, are prepared to vote for the Saskatchewan Party. This captures all of the conservative and liberal voters in this province, and some former New Democrats too. The reason for this is our unique political culture in Western Canada. We are not like Canadians in the East - we like our politics with a right-wing, meaty edge to it. Even the Saskatchewan NDP is significantly to the right of its brethren in provinces to the east of us.Thus all voters who deem themselves free enterprisers are now on board the Sask Party bandwagon. This means the Sask Party is set to capture more seats this fall than in did in 2007.

How many more you ask? In the weeks ahead, we will give you a more concrete idea of the coming magnitude of the Sask Party victory, on a seat by seat basis. For now, just based on the numbers from 2007 and the dynamics heading into this election, it appears the Sask Party will capture a minimum of 6 seats from the 20-seat NDP opposition. If the Sask Party can pick up more than 6 seats from the NDP, that will depend entirely on how new Saskatchewan residents vote, and the dynamics of the election writ period; in other words, how much momentum the Sask Party can generate.

So for the Saskatchewan Party, the only big problem they face this fall is potential apathy from their own supporters. The Sask Party is more than a country mile ahead of the NDP right now, and that might prompt many Sask Party voters to simply stay home on election day, thinking this race is 'in the bag'. The challenge for Premier Brad Wall and his team will be to motivate activists and voters to make the trek to the polls on November 7.

It is beyond November 7 though where the Saskatchewan Party faces true tests to its mettle. Since the party was founded in 1997, the Saskatchewan Party has enjoyed a steady rise in our province's politics, hitting few speed bumps along the way. Here are a few questions to consider:

• Will the Saskatchewan Party peak in popular support this fall?
• Will a second term Saskatchewan Party Government be the same as the first term?
• Will core Saskatchewan Party supporters tolerate another four years of NDP-lite government by Premier Wall and crew?
• If free enterprisers ever grow disenchanted with the Sask Party, where will they go, and what will they do?
• Does Premier Wall have plans to jump to the federal political arena?

• Will the Saskatchewan Party win a 3rd majority government in 2015?

This last question is the most intriguing of all. The ability of the Saskatchewan Party to win a third term in office is critical. The history of Saskatchewan politics going back to the Great Depression has a set pattern, where the free enterprise/anti-NDP party is unable to win a 3rd term in government in this province. Ross Thatcher and the Liberals were defeated after 2 terms in 1971, as were Grant Devine and the Progressive Conservatives in 1991. Defeat of the Sask Party government in 2015 by the NDP would only confirm that the Great Depression era of politics continues in this province. But if Brad Wall and his team can win again in 2015, it would officially end the current political cycle - and Saskatchewan politics would indeed be in new territory.

Part 3 will look at the fortunes of the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party.