Constituency Profile: Regina Coronation Park

Regina Coronation Park constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Regina Coronation Park is the seat in north Regina. Northgate Mall is the heart of the constituency. It ranges from working to middle class, with neatly maintained homes and quiet neighbourhoods.

There have been a variety of constituencies in north Regina since 1978, all with different and changing names. Regina Coronation Park. Regina Coronation Park first appeared on the Saskatchewan political landscape for 1995. The winning MLA that time, and in every election since up to 2007, was Kim Trew of the NDP. Trew was first elected as an MLA in 1986 in the old Regina North seat, after the PCs won it in 1982 from New Democrat Stan Oxelgren. The seat was vacant in 1986, after Jack Klein switched to Regina South and won there for the Tories. Trew won a five-way nomination in 1986 to become the NDP candidate, and he never faced any serious opposition for the remainder of his political career. However, the Sask Party is slowly closing the gap in the NDP in this seat. The Sask Party won 24 percent of the vote in Regina Coronation Park in 2003 and 32 percent in 2007, and actually won a poll for the first time, the one that includes Merlin Crescent.

After a political career that spans 25 years, Kim Trew has retired as an MLA (and a brief stint as Minister of Labour in 2001). After another 5-way donnybrook of a nomination battle, Jaime Garcia came out on top after the 3rd ballot, and is the new NDP standard bearer in the riding. Jaime has been campaigning hard for months and is doing lots of marketing leading up to the vote. But Mark Docherty of the Sask Party is no slouch either, the Sask Party has provincewide momentum. However, the NDP has a large base in Regina Coronration Park. There will be no Liberal candidate in the riding this time (the Liberals won 9 percent in Regina Coronation Park last time), which will automatically bring the Sask Party up to 41 percent in the seat, the SP may not be able to close the gap here before election day. Conventional wisdom favours the NDP to hold Regina Coronation Park, though the margin of victory may be a lot closer than anyone could have imagined previously. 

Constituency Profile: Regina Elphinstone-Centre

Regina Elphinstone-Centre constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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When one sets foot in north-central Regina, they are setting foot on NDP holy ground. It is the mighty fortress known in the past as Regina Elphinstone, and today is called Regina Elphinstone-Centre. It is the mightiest electoral stronghold of the Saskatchewan NDP. It is almost legendary in status and mythical in quality, because the seat has had an unbroken string of CCF/NDP MLAs since 1944, and the winning plurality for the NDP in this seat is usually very large, rarely under 60 percent of the vote. In the "Monday Night Massacre" election in which the Saskatchewan NDP were reduced to 8 seats in the Legislature, Regina Elphinstone was among the 8. The most famous former MLA for this constituency is the late Allan Blakeney, Premier of Saskatchewan from 1971 to 1982 and Rhodes Scholar, who passed away this past spring.
The former Regina Centre constituency is also another Saskatchewan NDP fortress, having also remained in the NDP column in 1982. In 2003 Regina Elphinstone and Regina Centre were fused together to form Regina Elphinstone-Centre. The only MLA to date for this riding is Warren McCall, who was first elected in Regina Elphinstone in February 2001, after the previous MLA, former Deputy Premier Dwain Lingenfelter resigned to pursue opportunities elsewhere. McCall was easily re-elected in 2003 with 66 percent of the vote and 62 percent in 2007. McCall was a cabinet minister in the Calvert Government, holding the portfolios of Advanced Education and Employment, and Corrections and Public Safety. In opposition, Warren has critic duties for Crown Corporations, First Nations and Metis Relations, and Provincial Secretary.

McCall is being challenged this time by Bill Stevenson of the Saskatchewan Party, and Ingrid Alesich of the Green Party. Alesich also ran for the Greens in this riding in 2007 and got 5 percent of the vote. There will be no Liberal this time in Regina Elphinstone-Centre, which will probably do little to affect the outcome in this constituency. Stevenson has been campaigning hard for several months, and with the strong momentum behind the Sask Party provincewide, it is likely that Stevenson will considerably close the gap with McCall on November 7th. However Warren is no pushover. He has solid roots in Regina Elphinstone-Centre, being the third generation of his family to live and work in the constituency. Today one can still drive by his grandmother's former home in the middle of the riding on Elphinstone Street, a modest, unassuming home painted in white. Warren has also worked hard over the past decade as the MLA for this area, having been voted "Best Regina MLA" in the prairie dog. McCall is also the holder of the social gospel tradition for the Saskatchewan NDP; it is difficult to imagine this flame being snuffed out on November 7th. Although McCall's victory may not be as spectacular as in past elections, we should still expect to see him in the winner's circle this time.

Constituency Profile: Regina Rosemont

Regina Rosemont constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Regina Rosemont is a fairly typical NDP seat in west-central Regina. The overwhelming majority of the demographics here is made up of older, white, working class folks. This voters tend to be unionized but are also church going folks and hold traditional social values. In the Saskatchewan NDP lexicon, you couldn't find a more ideal seat.

The first MLA for Regina Rosemont was elected in the 1975 provincial election. Bill Allen was re-elected easily in 1978 but lost in 1982 in the "Monday Night Massacre." The new MLA at that time was Gordon Dirks, a Progressive Conservative. Dirks had been on Regina City Council before winning in Regina Rosemont, and served in the Devine Cabinet as Minister of Social Services. But Dirks was easily defeated in 1986 by Bob Lyons of the NDP. Lyons was re-elected easily in 1991. He didn't run for re-election in 1995. From 1995 to 2003, Regina Rosemont was split between the Regina Sherwood and Regina Elphinstone constituencies. In 2003, Regina Rosemont is restored, and veteran NDP MLA and Cabinet Minister Joanne Crofford is elected here. Crofford was first elected in 1991 in Regina Lake Centre and in 1995 and in 1999 in Regina Centre. Crofford retired in 2003 and after some controversy and two separate nomination meetings, Trent Wotherspoon emerged as the NDP candidate and new MLA for Regina Rosemont in 2007.

Upon the election of Dwain Lingenfelter as NDP Leader in 2009, Wotherspoon was named NDP Finance critic. This posting has allowed Trent to maintain a high profile as an opposition MLA. And as anyone who has driven through west Regina over the past 4 years can attest to, Wotherspoon has invested a great deal of time and money on buying billboard space across his constituency. In this general election campaign, the Wotherspoon campaign has succeeded in putting up thousands of lawn signs across the constituency, which is a testament to Trent's personal popularity among his voters. To be sure, Wotherspoon's Sask Party adversary Tony Fiacco, the brother of Regina Mayor Pat Fiacco, also has a large number of lawn signs up across Regina Rosemont. But if I had to pick one seat that I was absolutely sure the NDP will keep in the November 7th election, my instincts tell me it will be Regina Rosemont. If Lingenfelter resigns as Sask NDP Leader shortly following this provincial election, there is also a great deal of speculation that Wotherspoon will be a candidate in the NDP leadership race.

Final Polling Results: I told you so

I told you so. I predicted that as what remained of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party's voting base imploded in this election, that it would find its way into the Sask Party's column. And the Greens are now the third party, with over 5 percent of the vote. Most ominous for the New Democrats is that their polling numbers haven't budged.

Ask not for whom the bell tolls this Monday. If these polling results carry over into Monday's vote, then we will witness a political tsunami roll over the province, crushing many New Democrat MLAs in its path. This is going to be one humdinger of an election, and I think we'll be talking about the election results for decades to come. We may be on the verge of a new era in Saskatchewan politics. I am as fascinated as you are to see the coming election results.

Constituency Profile: Moose Jaw North

Moose Jaw North constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Moose Jaw North first came into the Saskatchewan political lexicon in 1967. It was the first election where the cities of Moose Jaw, Regina, Saskatoon and Prince Albert used multiple seats to elect MLAs instead of the two-seat electoral system. The first MLA for Moose Jaw North was Gordon Snyder of the NDP. Snyder was first elected in Moose Jaw in 1960 and was re-elected in 1964, 1967, 1971, 1975 and 1978. In the 1970s, Snyder served as Minister of Labour in the Blakeney Government. Snyder was defeated in the "Monday Night Massacre" election of 1982, and he subsequently retired from politics. In 1971, Snyder moved to Moose Jaw Wakamow riding, and Donald McDonald of the Liberals won Moose Jaw North. McDonald didn't run for re-election in 1975, and New Democrat John Skoberg won the seat back for the NDP. Skoberg had been the New Democrat MP for Moose Jaw from 1978 to 1982. Skoberg was returned to the Legislature in 1978 but retired in 1982. The seat was picked up by Keith Parker of the PC Party. But Parker lost in 1986 to New Democrat Glenn Hagel.

Hagel had a lively career as an MLA. He was Speaker of the Legislature from 1996 to 1999, and then joined cabinet in 2001. Hagel held several different portfolios, including Post Secondary Education, Social Services, Gaming, Community Resources and Employment, Provincial Secretary, and Culture, Youth and Recreation. Hagel was re-elected in 1991, 1995, 1999 and 2003. In 2007 Hagel was defeated by Warren Michelson of the Saskatchewan Party by exactly 33 votes. Part of Hagel's defeat may be the result of an alleged  controversy over NDP caucus funds when Hagel was Caucus Chair. Hagel was never charged by police. Today Hagel is Mayor of Moose Jaw, so he has enjoyed a political comeback.

Michelson is running for re-election on November 7th. His opponents include Derek Hassen of the NDP, Corrine Johnson of the Green Party, and PC Party Leader Rick Swenson. Swenson was the MLA for Thunder Creek from 1985 to 1995 and held several cabinet portfolios in the Devine Government. Swenson was also interim PC Leader from 1992 to 1994. Swenson became PC Leader in 2006 after the party came out of self-imposed hibernation for 2 provincial elections after the formation of the Saskatchewan Party. Swenson ran in Thunder Creek in 2007 but finished fourth with 3.42 percent of the vote. Swenson and the PC Party is before the courts with the Sask Party over access to the PC Trust Fund. The trust fund was established by the PCs before the party was placed in hibernation. The trust fund contains an estimated $3-million.

Constituency Profile: Prince Albert Carlton

Prince Albert Carlton constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Prince Albert Carlton first appeared on Saskatchewan political maps in the 1991 provincial election, having been carved out of the old Prince Albert constituency. The first MLA for Prince Albert Carlton was New Democrat Myron Kowalsky, who was first elected in 1986 in the old Prince Albert constituency. Kowalsky was easily re-elected in 1991, 1995, 1999, and in 2003. Kowalsky became Speaker of the Saskatchewan Legislature in 2001 and remained in the post until his retirement in 2007. The 2007 election saw Prince Albert police officer Darryl Hickie win Prince Albert Carlton for the Saskatchewan Party by a razor-thin 61 vote margin. Since his win in 2007, Hickie has been a cabinet minister in the Wall Government. Hickie was initially Minister of Corrections and Public Safety.

Hickie is running for re-election on November 7, and his main opponent is New Democrat candidate Ted Zurakowski, a teacher. The NDP hope to pick up this seat on Monday, but without a Liberal candidate in the race, that will be a tall order. In 2007 the Liberal candidate in Prince Albert Carlton got 370 votes or 4.77 percent of the vote. If all of those people are voting this time, most if not all of them will be voting Sask Party this time. And if one considers the strong momentum behind the Sask Party in this election, it could be that Dickie wins again by a plurality of several hundred votes. Prince Albert Carlton has been an NDP stronghold in the past and in normal circumstances is very winnable for the party. However the 2011 election is not a normal situation.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Greystone

Saskatoon Greystone constituency is outline in red on the map above.

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Maybe it has something to do with all of the folks in the constituency who have university degrees, but Saskatoon Greystone has a knack for attracting well-educated and high profile candidates. Saskatoon Greystone first appeared in Saskatchewan politics for the 1991 provincial election, largely being carved out of the old Saskatoon University riding. In 1991, New Democrat MLA Peter Prebble was seeking re-election in the new riding, but he was defeated by Sask Liberal Leader Lynda Haverstock. Haverstock was originally planning to run in either Rosetown-Elrose or Kindersley in 1991, but somehow the federal Liberal dilletantes succeeded in encouraging her to run in Saskatoon Greystone instead. Their thinking was probably that when the time came to knife her in the back, they wouldn't have as far to travel to do the job if Haverstock was representing an urban constituency.

Haverstock was re-elected in Saskatoon Greystone in 1995, and after the disgusting way in which the dilletantes overthrew her as party leader, she remained as the Independent MLA for Saskatoon Greystone for the remainder of her term. In 1999 Haverstock did not seek re-election, and in 2000 she was appointed Lieutenant-Governor of Saskatchewan. Haverstock was succeeded as the MLA for Saskatoon Greystone in 1999 by Prebble, who once Lorne Calvert became Premier in 2001, finally joined Executive Council. Prebble was Minister of the Public Service Commission, Corrections and Public Safety and the Office of Energy Conservation. Prebble is known as a champion of environmental issues, so he was a good fit for Energy Conservation.

Anyhow, Prebble didn't run for re-election in 2007, and Saskatoon Greystone was won by Rob Norris of the Saskatchewan Party. Norris had been a Liberal candidate in Saskatoon Eastview in 2003, but two days after Liberal Leader David Karwacki lost in the Weyburn-Big Muddy by-election in June 2006, Norris officially jumped to the Saskatchewan Party. Since being in government, Norris has become Minister of Advanced Education, Employment and Labour. Later, Norris' duties were changed so that he is now the Minister of Advanced Education, Employment and Immigration, and he is also the Minister for SaskPower and the Minister for Innovation.

Norris is running for re-election on November 7, and Prebble has come out of retirement to face him. This is truly a Battle of the Titans, and one of the hottest contests in this provincial election. Simone Clayton is running for the Liberals and the Green candidate is Tammy McDonald. The trade union movement reviles Norris for passing controversial labour legislation since 2007, so they are focused on trying to defeat Norris. Norris won by 298 votes in 2007, and his ability to win or lose will depend in large part how much campaigning the Liberals are doing here, and if the momentum behind the Sask Party will lift Norris' boat come election day. Prebble should never be ruled out though; he is an effective campaigner, and is easily recognized in Saskatoon after a political career that spans five decades. On the other hand, Norris is also well-known in Saskatoon, and is touted as someone who could replace Brad Wall as Sask Party Leader some day. Look for a Norris win on November 7, though it might or might not be a slim victory.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Sutherland

Saskatoon Sutherland constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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As far as the short history of urban constituencies in Saskatchewan go, that of Saskatoon Sutherland is rather interesting. While it could never be called a bellwether seat, it is a seat that generally reveals the future direction of provincial politics in Saskatchewan; as Saskatoon Sutherland goes, so will the overall political direction. The first time that Saskatoon Sutherland was contested was in the pivotal 1975 provincial election. By this time the dilletantes already had their fangs sunk deeply into the Saskatchewan Liberal Party and were already well on their way to driving the proverbial dagger into the party the first time around. But in spite of themselves, the Liberals actually won this constituency, with popular City Councillor Evelyn Edwards as the candidate. But unfortunately for Edwards, she passed away suddenly the following year. In the subsequent by-election, PC candidate Harold Lane won, an event which fuelled the rise of the Tories in provincial politics, and also fuelled the demise of the Liberals. But in 1978, Saskatoon Sutherland switched MLAs again, this time going with Peter Prebble of the NDP. It would be the only time Prebble was elected in Saskatoon Sutherland, but definitely not his last term as an MLA!

In 1982 Prebble ran for re-election in another constituency and lost. The new MLA elected for Saskatoon Sutherland amid the "Monday Night Massacre" was PC candidate Paul Schoenhals. Schoenhals served in the Devine Cabinet during his term, and after his defeat in 1986 he became the President and CEO of the newly-privatized Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan. Schoenhals was defeated by Mark Koenker of the NDP, a Lutheran Pastor. Koenker was re-elected in 1991 and 1995 and retired in 1999. Another New Democrat, Graham Addley, won in Saskatoon Sutherland in '99,and was re-elected in 2003. Addley served as Minister of Investment Saskatchewan and ISC in the Calvert Government until his defeat in 2007 to Joceline Schreimer of the Saskatchewan Party. Schreimer decided not to run for re-election in 2011. In her place, the Sask Party has nominated Paul Merriman, the son of former Saskatoon Northwest Sask Party MLA Ted Merriman. The NDP candidate is Naveed Anwar, the Green candidate is Larry Waldinger and Kaleb Jeffries is the Liberal candidate.

It is likely that the Sask Party will hold Saskatoon Sutherland and possibly add to their margin of victory from 2007 by taking from the Liberal column. Schreimer won with 43 percent of the vote in 2007, so Merriman could capture up to 50 percent of the vote or more this time around. Waldinger is also an active Green candidate; it will be very interesting to see how he finishes in this contest.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Southeast

Saskatoon Southeast constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Saskatoon Southeast was first contested in the 1991 election (also called the Monday Night Massacre Part 2) under the name of Saskatoon Wildwood. The riding was renamed to Saskatoon Southeast in 1995. The first MLA for this riding was Pat Lorje of the NDP. Lorje was a 12 year veteran of Saskatoon City Council before making the leap to the provincial arena. Lorje won by about 1,100 votes in 1991, 540 votes in 1995, and just 38 votes in 1999, each time against a Liberal candidate. The 1999 results went to a recount, but were dropped after the Liberal MLAs signed their death warrants by joining the disastrous Coalition Government. Somehow, Lorje made it into the Romanow and Calvert cabinets, serving in the following portfolios; Minister of Aboriginal Affairs, Provincial Secretary, Minister of Post-Secondary Education, and Minister of the Environment. Toward the end of Lorje's time as an MLA she was briefly out of cabinet after a bizarre incident where she allegedly struck one of her aides. Apparently, the incident was coined later as an "afffectionate slap". Lorje didn't run for re-election in 2003, and took off for the glamourous life of Hollywood before returning to Saskatoon, and is now on City Council again.

After having lost Saskatoon Southeast by just 38 votes in 1999, there was a rumour afterward that in 2003, Liberal Leader David Karwacki was holding open the Liberal nomination in the seat for a star candidate. David's brother Grant had been the Liberal candidate in 1999, but in 2003 Grant decided to run in Saskatoon Nutana instead. However, the star candidate never materialized, and prominent Saskatoon lawyer Don Morgan stormed to victory for the Saskatchewan Party in the riding. Morgan has since gone on to easy re-election in 2007 by over 3,000 votes or 30 percentage points, and looks poised to win this riding again on November 7th.

Morgan is Justice Minister and Attorney General in the Wall Government, and one of the big power brokers in caucus. In 2007, Morgan captured 59 percent of the vote. With the wind in the Sask Party's sails and just a paper candidate running for the Liberals in Saskatoon Southeast, Morgan could easily win 70 percent of the vote or more in this election.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Silver Springs

Saskatoon Silver Springs constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Saskatoon Silver Springs is one of the newest constituencies in the province. It reflects the tremendous growth on the northeast side of Saskatoon. Saskatoon Silver Springs was first contested in the 2003 provincial election. It was won by Ken Cheveldayoff of the Saskatchewan Party with about 45 percent of the vote, compared to 39 percent for the NDP. Cheveldayoff was re-elected in 2007 with 62 percent of the vote. Since 2007 Cheveldayoff has held several portfolios in the Wall Government, including Minister of Crown Corporations, Minister of Enteprise Saskatchewan, and now Minister of First Nations and Metis Relations.

Cheveldayoff is indeed seeking re-election on November 7. Ken is expected to win easy re-election in this seat, with up to 70 percent of the vote.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Northwest

Saskatoon Northwest constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Saskatoon Northwest was a new constituency created for the 1995 provincial election. That year Grant Whitmore was re-elected as a New Democrat MLA. Whitmore was first elected in 1991 in Biggar. but Whitmore was narrowly defeated in 1999 by Saskatchewan Liberal Leader Jim Melenchuk by just 127 votes. Melenchuk and the other Liberals went on to sign the disastrous Coalition Government deal with the NDP, and Melenchuk ended up becoming Minister of Finance in the Coalition Government. Liberals booted Melenchuk as Leader in 2001,and so he tried running for re-election in 2003 as a New Democrat but lost to Ted Merriman of the Saskatchewan Party by 270 votes. But Merriman did not run for re-election in 2007, and was replaced by the controversial Serge LeClerc. LeClerc resigned as MLA for Saskatoon Northwest following allegations made on a cassette that he was using cocaine. In the November 2010 by-election, Gord Wyant, a City Councillor, cruised to victory in the seat with 59 percent of the vote.

The races in Saskatoon Northwest were always close as long as the Liberals were a contender. But in the 2010 by-election, the Liberals collapsed to just 3 percent of the vote in that constituency. Wyant is running for re-election on November 7 in Saskatoon Northwest, as is Liberal candidate Eric Steiner. It is very likely that Wyant will win on Monday with over 60 percent of the vote.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Centre

Saskatoon Centre is outlined in red on the map above.

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Saskatoon Centre was first created as an electoral district in 1975, was known as Saskatoon Idylwyld from 1991 to 2003, and since 2003 is called Saskatoon Centre again. This seat is an NDP stronghold on the west side of the river in Saskatoon.

The first MLA for Saskatoon Centre was Paul Mostoway of the NDP. Mostoway was re-elected in 1978 but was defeated in 1982 in the "Monday Night Massacre". From 1982 to 1986, the MLA for this seat was Progressive Conservative Jack Sandberg, a CFQC TV announcer who served briefly in the Devine Cabinet. Sandberg was defeated in 1986 by Anne Smart of the NDP. But Smart lost her nomination meeting to run again in 1991 to a young lawyer named Eric Cline, who would go on to become a well-known cabinet minister in the Romanow and Calvert Governments, including the post of Finance Minister. Cline was the MLA for Saskatoon Idylwyld until 1995, then fellow New Democrat Janice MacKinnon was the MLA here until 2001. MacKinnon was the first woman Finance Minister in Canada and brought in the first balanced budget in Canada in 1994.

David Forbes, a teacher and vice-principal, won the by-election to replace MacKinnon, and was re-elected in 2003 and 2007 in Saskatoon Centre. Forbes is standing for re-election on November 7. Apparently polling of voters in Saskatoon Centre shows that Forbes has a substantial lead in the riding, and is in no danger of being defeated. Thus he is very likely to survive the electoral tsunami headed for the Saskatchewan NDP on November 7.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Nutana

Saskatoon Nutana constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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The constituency now called Saskatoon Nutana was first contested in 1967 when Saskatoon first had multiple constituencies. In that election the seat was won by Clarence Estey of the Liberals over future NDP MLA and cabinet minister Wes Robbins. Estey lost to Robbins in 1971, and Robbins was re-elected in in 1975 and 1978. In 1978, Robbins was challenged by a young Agricultural Economics Professor from the U of S who was running for the PCs; has name was Grant Devine.

In 1982, Robbins retired and the seat was won by Evelyn Bacon of the PCs in the "Monday Night Massacre". Bacon only won by 105 votes. In 1986 Pat Atkinson stormed to victory in Saskatoon Nutana by easily defeating Bacon. Atkinson has since been re-elected in Saskatoon Nutana by wide margins in 1986, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007. Atkinson's margin of victory in 2007 was 52 percent compared to 29 percent for the Sask Party. Atkinson held a variety of cabinet posts in the Romanow and Calvert Governments, including Minister of Health, Minister of Education, Minister of Social Services, and Minister of Finance.

Atkinson announced earlier this year that she was not seeking re-election, making way for her constituency association president Cathy Sproule to run in her place. Sproule is being challenged by Zoria Broughton of the Sask Party. Broughton had run for the Liberals in Saskatoon Southeast in 2003. Some folks in the Sask Party believe that with the immense popularity of Premier Wall could push them over the top in Saskatoon Nutana this time. However the conventional wisdom is that Sproule will successful stave off the challenge, but it could be a close contest. An NDP win in Saskatoon Nutana is the most likely outcome, and any gain by the Sask Party here would be deemed an upset, and would likely mean that the Sask Party has won almost every seat in the Leg this time.

Constituency Profile: Athabasca

Athabasca constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Athabasca has a long and interesting political history. The current Athabasca constituency traces its history back to the pivotal 1934 provincial election. That was the time when the Anderson Government lost every MLA, the Liberals won a landslide with 50 out of 55 seats, and a new party called the Farmer-Labour Party won 5 seats (this party later changed its name to the CCF). The Liberals won Athabasca in 1934, and the winner was Deakin Hall. Hall was a Liberal MLA in northern Saskatchewan from 1913 until 1944. Anyhow, Hall was MLA for Athabasca from 1934 to 1938 and then switched ridings. In 1938 the new Liberal MLA for Athabasca was Jules Marion, a Metis politician and businessman who lost to Hall in 1934, as a Liberal. Yes, the two candidates were both Liberals ,and one lost to another. Anyhow, Marion was an MLA in the north from 1926 to 1934 and from 1934 until his death in 1941. Liberal Hubert Staines won a 1941 by-election by-acclamation, and in 1944 Staines made way way for fellow Liberal Louis Marion, son of Jules Marion. Marion survived the CCF sweep of 1944, but in 1948 ran for re-election in Athabasca as an Independent and won. This is the last instance where an Independent MLA has been elected to the Saskatchewan Legislature.

After 1952, Liberal James Ripley was the MLA for Athabasca until 1956 and in 1956 the CCF won Athabasca with candidate John Harrop. But in 1960 the Liberals won in Athabasca again, with Allan Guy as the candidate. Guy was re-elected in 1964, 1967 and 1971, and served as Minister of Public Works, Minister of Municipal Affairs and Minister of the Saskatchewan Indians and Metis Department. In 1971, Guy was only re-elected in Athabasca by 12 votes over the NDP, so the results went to a by-election in September 1972. Guy won the by-election by 30 votes, and returned to the Legislature. In 1975 Guy didn't run again in Athabasca, and tried instead to run for the Liberals in Rosthern when David Boldt retired. But Guy lost to Ralph Katzman of the PCs.

In 1975 Fred Thompson won Athabasca for the NDP, and was re-elected in 1978, 1982, 1986 and 1991. Thompson held different cabinet positions in the Romanow Government, including Associate Minister of Economic Development, Minister of the Saskatchewan Housing Corporation, and Minister of the Saskatchewan Forest Products Corporation. But in 1995 Thompson was defeated by Liberal Buckley Belanger, by 159 votes or about 5 percentage points. In 1998 Belanger left the Liberals, resigned as MLA and ran for re-election in a by-election with the NDP. Belanger easily won the by-election with over 94 percent of the vote, the second highest margin of victory in Saskatchewan political history. After 1999 Belanger became Minister of the Environment and Minister of Intergovernmental and Aboriginal Affairs. Later Belanger also became Minister of Northern Affairs.

Belanger was re-elected in 1999 with 84 percent of the vote, 70 percent in 2003 and 59 percent in 2007. Belanger is seeking re-election on November 7. Although NDP fortunes are down this time, Belanger is still expected to win again in Athabasca, by a healthy margin. Oddly enough it will be the first time that there will be no Liberal candidate on the ballot in this riding. In a seat where at one time the only candidates on the ballots were 2 Liberals competing against each other, to not have a Liberal candidate on the ballot at all this time seems out of place.

Constituency Profile: Saskatchewan Rivers

Saskatchewan Rivers constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Saskatchewan Rivers first appeared on the Saskatchewan political map for the 1995 provincial election. Since that time, this seat has gone back and forth between the NDP and the Saskatchewan Party.

The first MLA for Saskatchewan Rivers was Jack Langford of the NDP. Langford was first elected in 1991 in the old Shellbrook-Torch River riding. In 1995 Langford won Saskatchewan Rivers by 1,021 votes or 15 percentage points over the Liberals. But in 1999 Langford was handed a narrow defeat by Daryl Wiberg of the Saskatchewan Party. Wiberg had narrowly lost in the 1997 federal election for the Reform Party but beat Langford in 1999 by 156 votes. But Wiberg's time as an MLA was, for in 2003 he lost to Lon Borgerson of the NDP. Borgerson won by 618 votes or about 8 percentage points. Borgerson was MLA until 2007, when he in turn was defeated by Nadine Wilson by 1,073 votes or about 13 percentage points.

Wilson is running for re-election in Saskatchewan Rivers on November 7th. Wilson won with about 55 percent of the vote in 2007. Without a Liberal candidate this time and with Premier Wall's popularity fuelling support for the Sask Party, Wilson could win this time with over 60 percent of the vote.

Constituency Profile: Rosthern-Shellbrook

Rosthern-Shellbrook constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Rosthern-Shellbrook is a very new constituency, having first been created for the 2003 provincial election after fitting together pieces of the former Rosthern, Shellbrook-Spiritwood, and Redberry Lake constituencies. Prior to 2003, Shellbrook-Spiritwood and Redberry Lake were more or less swing ridings, while Rosthern has a strong conservative voting history.

The first and only MLA for Rosthern-Shellbrook so far is Denis Allchurch of the Saskatchewan Party, who was first elected in 1999 iun Shellbrook-Spiritwood. Allchurch is the former Mayor of Spiritwood. Earlier this year, Allchurch was successfully challenged for his nomination by Scott Moe, his membership chair. As a result of this, Allchurch is not seeking re-election. It is expected that the Sask Party will easily win this riding again, since Premier Wall is very popular and there is no Liberal candidate this time. Moe could win for the Sask Party this time with upward of 65 percent of the vote or more. Allchurch captured about 58 percent of the vote here in 2007.

Constituency Profile: Lloydminster

Lloydminster constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on Lloydminster constituency, please click here.

Lloydminster constituency first came into existence for the 1908 provincial election, then vanished after 1929 into Cutknife-Lloydminister. In 1995 Lloydminster constituency returned. In its early history Lloydminster voted strongly Liberal, but starting in the 1920s and 1930s took a strong socialist turn and remained that way into the 1990s, except for a brief interlude with the Tories in the 1980s.

The first MLA for the modern constituency of Lloydminister in 1995 was Violet Stanger of the NDP. Stanger was first elected in 1991 in the "Monday Night Massacre Part 2" in the old Cutknife-Lloydminster riding. In 1995 Stanger won with about 44 percent of the vote, or a margin of 266 votes. But when Stanger ran for re-election in 1999, she along with most of her rural colleagues were swept out by the Saskatchewan Party. Milt Wakefield, a former commissioner with the Canadian Grain Commission, won for the Sask Party with 53 percent of the vote, compared to 38 percent for Stanger. But the next time Wakefield ran for re-election in 2003, he almost lost to the NDP; only 76 votes separated Wakefield from Wayne Byers of the NDP. But Wakefield retired in 1997 and was replaced by fellow Sask Party member Tim McMillan who captured 61 percent of the vote, a 25 percentage point spread over the NDP. Today McMillan holds several cabinet portfolios, including Minister of CIC, Minister of ISC, Minister of SGI, and Minister of the Sask Liquor and Gaming Authority. McMillan also got a private members bill passed in 2009 to protect the wild ponies in Bronson Forest in his constituency.

McMillan is running for re-election on November 7. Based on his personal popularity, his track record as an MLA and Cabinet Minister and the dynamics of the election campaign, and the voting history of Lloydminister, it is likely that McMillan will be easily re-elected this time. McMillan faces no Liberal opponent, and the Greens are contesting this seat for the first time with an attractive young candidate named Meggan Hougham. Hougham is no hippie, is campaigning hard, and had a campaign visit from Green Leader Victor Lau early in the election campaign. 

Advance Polls busy

What does this mean?Everyone said this was going to be a boring election, but what if turnout turns out to be high? Maybe this is going to be more interesting than we first thought...

Constituency Profile: Biggar

Biggar constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on the Biggar constituency, please click here.

The historical Biggar constituency existed from 1912 to 1991. It was a seat with a lot of traditional CCF/NDP strength. Prominent former MLAs from Biggar's past include CCF Premier Woodrow Lloyd and NDP cabinet minister Elwood Cowley.

Biggar was reconstituted for the 2003 provincial election. The only MLA for Biggar since that time is Randy Weekes of the Saskatchewan Party. Weekes was first elected as an MLA in 1999 in the old Redberry Lake constituency. Weekes was re-elected in 2007 with 60 percent of the vote. Since there will be no Liberal candidate in Biggar this time and with the strong momentum behind the Sask Party, Weekes could win 65 to 70 percent of the vote in the riding. However, the space that the Liberals used to occupy in Biggar could be made up the the Progressive Conservative candidate in the riding, and by Western Independence Party of Saskatchewan Leader Dana Arnason, who is making his first run in Biggar. This is one of the ridings I will be watching on election night.

Constituency Profile: Batoche

Batoche constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on the Batoche constituency, please click here.

Batoche constituency first appeared on Saskatchewan's electoral map for the 2003 provincial election, having been sewn together from pieces of 6 other constituencies. The only MLA for Batoche so far is Delbert Kirsch of the Saskatchewan Party. Kirsch was re-elected in 2007 and is letting his name stand again for November 7. Kirsch faces a strong challenge from Janice Bernier, a retired trade unionist. While Bernier is surely putting up a good fight, it is very likely that Kirsch will be swept in on Brad Wall's coattails again. Also the absence of a Liberal candidate in the constituency tips the scales strongly in the Saskatchewan Party's favour. Kirsch won with 60 percent of the vote in 2007, and could easily top out at 70 percent or more in this election.