After the proposed Domed Stadium for downtown Regina fell through this past winter, Regina Mayor Pat Fiacco has come up with a new stadium proposal. This time the private sector will be footing 75 percent of the bill for construction costs, though it has not been revealed yet which companies are stepping up to the plate. Public funding will round out the remaining 25 percent. Earlier this week Regina city council unanimously approved the project.
Now that a stadium for downtown Regina is back on the radar screen, people are starting to talk about this issue again, and people on lining up on both sides of the issue. Does a new stadium need to be built in downtown Regina? Many people are still suggesting that the stadium around Taylor Field could renovated at a fraction of cost of a new stadium. There is still the question of whether the province and the federal government are willing to help fund even 25 percent of a stadium.
What do you think? Should a new stadium be built in Regina, yes or no? Why or why not? You tell us!
Friday, August 26, 2011
A new poll for you to participate in
Sask Politics 1 has a new public opinion poll up! We want to know if you will watch Jack Layton's funeral on TV tomorrow.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Priming the Pump for November 7, Part 4 - the Liberals
This is the latest installment of a short series to 'prime the pump' or prepare you for our election coverage for the November 7 provincial vote. We expect the campaign to begin in earnest after Labour Day. Today's installment looks at the Saskatchewan Liberal Party.
If you knew nothing about Saskatchewan's political history, you would never believe that the Saskatchewan Liberal Party of today once dominated this province's politics. The party today is but a mere shadow of its former self. It is now hard to believe, but the Saskatchewan Liberal Party was once a dynamic force that created this province. The Liberals established a dynasty that carried the party to victory in the first 9 provincial elections in Saskatchewan - 1905, 1908, 1912, 1917, 1921, 1925, 1929, 1934 and 1938. If you are doubtful, do your own investigating.
So what happened to the Saskatchewan Liberal Party, and why is it relevant to the 2011 provincial election? In order to accurately predict what will happen on November 7, it is necessary to unlock the history of this enigmatic former political powerhouse.
The Saskatchewan Liberal Party was launched on August 16, 1905 as a classical liberal party. From its very inception the party advocated a strong climate for launching and sustaining businesses, personal initiative and personal freedom, all core classical liberal values. These values were very appealing to the waves of immigrants who made their way to this province from across Eastern, Central and Northern Europe. In most instances, these individuals came to Saskatchewan to either escape the chronic poverty and lack of economic opportunity in their homeland, or to escape local tyranny and oppression, or both. Those who fled Russia after the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 came to especially find the Saskatchewan Liberal Party to their liking.
Five Liberal Premiers took office during this dynasty - Walter Scott, William Martin, Charles Dunning, Jimmy Gardiner,and Bill Patterson. Without going into a lot of detail, it can be said that the economic foundation for the province was laid during this dynasty.
The Liberal grip on power in Saskatchewan ended with the rise of the Great Depression. The double blows of global economic collapse and environmental catastrophe (drought) during the 1930s not only ruined the province's economy, but it broke the spirit of Saskatchewan citizens and robbed them of their dignity. It was a time when farming families came to abandon their farms in the middle of the night rather than face foreclosure. Since money was scarce, a family would make new clothes quite often by cutting holes in jute flour sacks, and then dying them different colours (when possible). It was not uncommon to encounter folks with no shoes, and no food. This trauma left deep scars on the province, and many became convinced that more government involvement in the economy was needed to prevent a similar catastrophe from occurring again. Thus the Saskatchewan CCF came to power in 1944, ending the Saskatchewan Liberal dynasty.
The Liberals would then spend the next 20 years in opposition. It was not until the coming of Ross Thatcher to the leadership of the Liberals on September 20, 1959 at a packed convention in the Trianon Ballroom in downtown Regina, that the party truly began to move forward again. Thatcher had been the CCF MP for Moose Jaw, but left the party on April 22, 1955. Thatcher cited the growing influence of trade unions in the party as his main reason for departure. Thatcher was the owner of a successful hardware store in Moose Jaw, and he used his same personal initiative and entrepreneurial drive to propel the Saskatchewan Liberals back to power on April 22, 1964. The Thatcher years in Saskatchewan were highlighted by a new phase of economic development that saw the rise of the potash industry and a private pulp and paper mill for Prince Albert. However the Thatcher Government made one fatal error in its second term, when it introduced user fees for medical visits. That single issue doomed the Liberal Government in the 1971 election, and the party has not been in power since.
Thatcher died one month after the election, of a massive heart attack at age 53. There have been rumours about the nature of Thatcher's death, but photos of Ross in Dale Eisler's Rumours of Glory biography of Thatcher clearly show his health was failing in the final months of his life. Thatcher's strong commitment to a free enterprise economy as the force that sustained the Saskatchewan Liberal Party went to the grave with him. Thatcher's successors were not interested in classical Liberalism. Thatcher's successors in the 1970s were more interested in following the lead of Pierre Trudeau in Ottawa by aligning liberalism with big and invasive government. This shift did not go unnoticed by provincial Liberal voters, and by 1978 the party was wiped off the province's political map.
The 1980s were lean years for the party, electing just one MLA during the heyday of the Devine Government. That MLA was Ralph Goodale, who quit in 1988 to pursue a career in federal politics. But Goodale failed in his bid to get elected to Ottawa. It was at this time, on April 2, 1989, that a Saskatoon doctor named Lynda Haverstock won the party's leadership at a convention at the Hotel Saskatchewan. Haverstock spent the next 6 years crossing the province and almost single-handedly rebuilt the Liberal Party during this time. By 1995 Haverstock's work had paid off - the party had won 11 seats that year, and she became Leader of the Official Opposition. The PCs had dropped to third place. But on the heels of Haverstock's great achievement, she was overthrown later that year at a convention at the same hotel where she was first elected Leader. Haverstock was given an ultimatum to quit by the caucus, after federal Liberals instigated a failed review of her leadership. From the moment that Haverstock was forced to resign as Leader, the party has been in decline ever since to the present day.
The public beheading of Haverstock as Leader is one of the most disturbing events in Saskatchewan history. Instead of being rewarded for her efforts, Haverstock was punished, and the party has never come to grips with this disaster. Another Saskatoon doctor, Jim Melenchuk was elected party leader in 1996. Less than a year later half of his caucus quit to join the fledgling Saskatchewan Party. Another MLA would defect to the NDP in 1998. In the 1999 election the Liberals dropped to 4 seats. 4 seats turned into 3 when Wood River MLA Glen McPherson quit rather than face a court challenge to the election results in his seat. McPherson won re-election in 1999 by just a single vote. Even if McPherson had survived the court challenge, he was not eager to became part of the disastrous Coalition Government that came 2 weeks after the 1999 election.
3 Liberal MLAs, including Melenchuk, joined the minority NDP in government for the next 4 years. The move completely alienated the classical liberal core of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party. This was a major contributing factor to the party being wiped off political map in 2003. The other majority contributing factor was the further blurring of the party's identity by new leader David Karwacki. One of the key ingredients of past success of the Saskatchewan Liberal party had been its being distanced as much as possible from the federal Liberals. But instead Karwacki chose to align the provincial party's policies with those of the federal party, and he even went so far as to endorse the very left-wing Stephane Dion in the 2006 federal leadership race. Thus the party sank even lower in the 2007 election - no seats and just 9.4 percent of the vote provincewide. For the first time in the party's history, not a single Liberal candidate even finished second in a constituency, Karwacki included. On December 19, 2007, Karwacki resigned as Leader.
A new leader would not be elected until February 2009 in the person of Ryan Bater. This young fellow was the CEO of the Battlefords Regional Economic Development Authority, and had been the party's Battlefords candidate in 2007. However, Ryan is a neophyte to politics, and he inherited a destroyed party. By the time he was acclaimed leader about 18 months after the provincial election, most of the party's remaining organization had long since evaporated. Faced with a situation not of his making, Bater is using whatever resources he has at his disposal to contest the Battlefords constituency this November 7.
In a recent interview with the Leader Post, Bater made it clear that the party will not be able to run a provincewide campaign this time, or even be able to run candidates in every seat. Most public opinion polling done since 2007 suggests the Liberals are running anywhere from 2 to 4 percent across the province. All of the lost support has gone to the Saskatchewan Party, as evidenced by that party's lofty polling numbers, which in recent tracking comes in at 58 percent. While there may be the odd provincial Liberal who decides this time to vote NDP or Green, most Liberals who are not going to vote for the party this time will gravitate to the party that comes closest to representing their views, that being the Saskatchewan Party. Without taking local personalities and efforts into consideration, this single dynamic should provide the Saskatchewan Party with a minimum gain of 6 seats this November from the NDP.
If the Liberals are unable to rebuild after 2011, it could signal the rise of a new political order in this province, one dominated by the Saskatchewan Party. But if the Liberals do manage to start rebuilding after this year, then we may still be in the Great Depression cycle of politics that was outlined in previous installments in this series. Only time will tell what the future holds for the Saskatchewan Liberals.
While the current situation is rather bleak for the Liberals, some factors do weigh in their favour that could pave the way for the revival of the party at some point in the future. Under Bater's leadership, the party has adopted a Declaration of Principles of Prairie Liberalism that restores the party's traditional classical liberal core of values that was a key ingredient in the party's past success. That Declaration was approved at the 2009 convention. Also Saskatchewan Liberal delegates voted in 2009 to make a complete break with the Liberal Party of Canada. While the Saskatchewan Liberal Party needs to go much further to distance its identity from that of the federal Liberals, these are steps that could provide a basis for rebuilding the party some day. But in the meantime, the Saskatchewan Liberals are struggling, and their dismal current fortunes are a boon the Wall Government and disaster for the Saskatchewan NDP.
If you knew nothing about Saskatchewan's political history, you would never believe that the Saskatchewan Liberal Party of today once dominated this province's politics. The party today is but a mere shadow of its former self. It is now hard to believe, but the Saskatchewan Liberal Party was once a dynamic force that created this province. The Liberals established a dynasty that carried the party to victory in the first 9 provincial elections in Saskatchewan - 1905, 1908, 1912, 1917, 1921, 1925, 1929, 1934 and 1938. If you are doubtful, do your own investigating.
So what happened to the Saskatchewan Liberal Party, and why is it relevant to the 2011 provincial election? In order to accurately predict what will happen on November 7, it is necessary to unlock the history of this enigmatic former political powerhouse.
The Saskatchewan Liberal Party was launched on August 16, 1905 as a classical liberal party. From its very inception the party advocated a strong climate for launching and sustaining businesses, personal initiative and personal freedom, all core classical liberal values. These values were very appealing to the waves of immigrants who made their way to this province from across Eastern, Central and Northern Europe. In most instances, these individuals came to Saskatchewan to either escape the chronic poverty and lack of economic opportunity in their homeland, or to escape local tyranny and oppression, or both. Those who fled Russia after the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 came to especially find the Saskatchewan Liberal Party to their liking.
Five Liberal Premiers took office during this dynasty - Walter Scott, William Martin, Charles Dunning, Jimmy Gardiner,and Bill Patterson. Without going into a lot of detail, it can be said that the economic foundation for the province was laid during this dynasty.
The Liberal grip on power in Saskatchewan ended with the rise of the Great Depression. The double blows of global economic collapse and environmental catastrophe (drought) during the 1930s not only ruined the province's economy, but it broke the spirit of Saskatchewan citizens and robbed them of their dignity. It was a time when farming families came to abandon their farms in the middle of the night rather than face foreclosure. Since money was scarce, a family would make new clothes quite often by cutting holes in jute flour sacks, and then dying them different colours (when possible). It was not uncommon to encounter folks with no shoes, and no food. This trauma left deep scars on the province, and many became convinced that more government involvement in the economy was needed to prevent a similar catastrophe from occurring again. Thus the Saskatchewan CCF came to power in 1944, ending the Saskatchewan Liberal dynasty.
The Liberals would then spend the next 20 years in opposition. It was not until the coming of Ross Thatcher to the leadership of the Liberals on September 20, 1959 at a packed convention in the Trianon Ballroom in downtown Regina, that the party truly began to move forward again. Thatcher had been the CCF MP for Moose Jaw, but left the party on April 22, 1955. Thatcher cited the growing influence of trade unions in the party as his main reason for departure. Thatcher was the owner of a successful hardware store in Moose Jaw, and he used his same personal initiative and entrepreneurial drive to propel the Saskatchewan Liberals back to power on April 22, 1964. The Thatcher years in Saskatchewan were highlighted by a new phase of economic development that saw the rise of the potash industry and a private pulp and paper mill for Prince Albert. However the Thatcher Government made one fatal error in its second term, when it introduced user fees for medical visits. That single issue doomed the Liberal Government in the 1971 election, and the party has not been in power since.
Thatcher died one month after the election, of a massive heart attack at age 53. There have been rumours about the nature of Thatcher's death, but photos of Ross in Dale Eisler's Rumours of Glory biography of Thatcher clearly show his health was failing in the final months of his life. Thatcher's strong commitment to a free enterprise economy as the force that sustained the Saskatchewan Liberal Party went to the grave with him. Thatcher's successors were not interested in classical Liberalism. Thatcher's successors in the 1970s were more interested in following the lead of Pierre Trudeau in Ottawa by aligning liberalism with big and invasive government. This shift did not go unnoticed by provincial Liberal voters, and by 1978 the party was wiped off the province's political map.
The 1980s were lean years for the party, electing just one MLA during the heyday of the Devine Government. That MLA was Ralph Goodale, who quit in 1988 to pursue a career in federal politics. But Goodale failed in his bid to get elected to Ottawa. It was at this time, on April 2, 1989, that a Saskatoon doctor named Lynda Haverstock won the party's leadership at a convention at the Hotel Saskatchewan. Haverstock spent the next 6 years crossing the province and almost single-handedly rebuilt the Liberal Party during this time. By 1995 Haverstock's work had paid off - the party had won 11 seats that year, and she became Leader of the Official Opposition. The PCs had dropped to third place. But on the heels of Haverstock's great achievement, she was overthrown later that year at a convention at the same hotel where she was first elected Leader. Haverstock was given an ultimatum to quit by the caucus, after federal Liberals instigated a failed review of her leadership. From the moment that Haverstock was forced to resign as Leader, the party has been in decline ever since to the present day.
The public beheading of Haverstock as Leader is one of the most disturbing events in Saskatchewan history. Instead of being rewarded for her efforts, Haverstock was punished, and the party has never come to grips with this disaster. Another Saskatoon doctor, Jim Melenchuk was elected party leader in 1996. Less than a year later half of his caucus quit to join the fledgling Saskatchewan Party. Another MLA would defect to the NDP in 1998. In the 1999 election the Liberals dropped to 4 seats. 4 seats turned into 3 when Wood River MLA Glen McPherson quit rather than face a court challenge to the election results in his seat. McPherson won re-election in 1999 by just a single vote. Even if McPherson had survived the court challenge, he was not eager to became part of the disastrous Coalition Government that came 2 weeks after the 1999 election.
3 Liberal MLAs, including Melenchuk, joined the minority NDP in government for the next 4 years. The move completely alienated the classical liberal core of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party. This was a major contributing factor to the party being wiped off political map in 2003. The other majority contributing factor was the further blurring of the party's identity by new leader David Karwacki. One of the key ingredients of past success of the Saskatchewan Liberal party had been its being distanced as much as possible from the federal Liberals. But instead Karwacki chose to align the provincial party's policies with those of the federal party, and he even went so far as to endorse the very left-wing Stephane Dion in the 2006 federal leadership race. Thus the party sank even lower in the 2007 election - no seats and just 9.4 percent of the vote provincewide. For the first time in the party's history, not a single Liberal candidate even finished second in a constituency, Karwacki included. On December 19, 2007, Karwacki resigned as Leader.
A new leader would not be elected until February 2009 in the person of Ryan Bater. This young fellow was the CEO of the Battlefords Regional Economic Development Authority, and had been the party's Battlefords candidate in 2007. However, Ryan is a neophyte to politics, and he inherited a destroyed party. By the time he was acclaimed leader about 18 months after the provincial election, most of the party's remaining organization had long since evaporated. Faced with a situation not of his making, Bater is using whatever resources he has at his disposal to contest the Battlefords constituency this November 7.
In a recent interview with the Leader Post, Bater made it clear that the party will not be able to run a provincewide campaign this time, or even be able to run candidates in every seat. Most public opinion polling done since 2007 suggests the Liberals are running anywhere from 2 to 4 percent across the province. All of the lost support has gone to the Saskatchewan Party, as evidenced by that party's lofty polling numbers, which in recent tracking comes in at 58 percent. While there may be the odd provincial Liberal who decides this time to vote NDP or Green, most Liberals who are not going to vote for the party this time will gravitate to the party that comes closest to representing their views, that being the Saskatchewan Party. Without taking local personalities and efforts into consideration, this single dynamic should provide the Saskatchewan Party with a minimum gain of 6 seats this November from the NDP.
If the Liberals are unable to rebuild after 2011, it could signal the rise of a new political order in this province, one dominated by the Saskatchewan Party. But if the Liberals do manage to start rebuilding after this year, then we may still be in the Great Depression cycle of politics that was outlined in previous installments in this series. Only time will tell what the future holds for the Saskatchewan Liberals.
While the current situation is rather bleak for the Liberals, some factors do weigh in their favour that could pave the way for the revival of the party at some point in the future. Under Bater's leadership, the party has adopted a Declaration of Principles of Prairie Liberalism that restores the party's traditional classical liberal core of values that was a key ingredient in the party's past success. That Declaration was approved at the 2009 convention. Also Saskatchewan Liberal delegates voted in 2009 to make a complete break with the Liberal Party of Canada. While the Saskatchewan Liberal Party needs to go much further to distance its identity from that of the federal Liberals, these are steps that could provide a basis for rebuilding the party some day. But in the meantime, the Saskatchewan Liberals are struggling, and their dismal current fortunes are a boon the Wall Government and disaster for the Saskatchewan NDP.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Federal politicians in Saskatchewan pay tribute to Jack Layton
Tributes continue to flow in from across the spectrum to honour Jack Layton. Although no New Democrat MPs were elected in Saskatchewan during Layton's watch, it seems that he had a profound impact on the province's federal participants.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Simon de Jong passes away
Former Regina New Democrat MP Simon de Jong has also passed away. De Jong was the MP for Regina East and Regina QuAppelle from 1979 to 1997.
But de Jong has 2 claims to fame in addition to his having been an MP. de Jong survived the 1993 by defeating his Liberal opponent by less than 1,000 votes. It is the way de Jong won that was interesting. The Liberals won all of the Regina polls in Regina QuAppelle, while the Reform Party won all of the rural polls. But de Jong finished second in every poll - and won enough votes that way to get re-elected.
In 1989, de Jong ran in the federal NDP leadership race and finished 4th. de Jong wore a microphone during the convention, including during a meeting with Dave Barrett, who was runner-up to the winner Audrey McLaughlin. de Jong's comments with Barrett and with his mother in Dutch were used by the CBC in a documentary about that convention.
Sask Politics 1 extends deepest condolences to the family and friends of de Jong at this time.
But de Jong has 2 claims to fame in addition to his having been an MP. de Jong survived the 1993 by defeating his Liberal opponent by less than 1,000 votes. It is the way de Jong won that was interesting. The Liberals won all of the Regina polls in Regina QuAppelle, while the Reform Party won all of the rural polls. But de Jong finished second in every poll - and won enough votes that way to get re-elected.
In 1989, de Jong ran in the federal NDP leadership race and finished 4th. de Jong wore a microphone during the convention, including during a meeting with Dave Barrett, who was runner-up to the winner Audrey McLaughlin. de Jong's comments with Barrett and with his mother in Dutch were used by the CBC in a documentary about that convention.
Sask Politics 1 extends deepest condolences to the family and friends of de Jong at this time.
Priming the Pump for November 7, Part 3 - the Saskatchewan NDP
This is the latest installment of a short series that 'primes the pump' for you leading up to the provincial election campaign in Saskatchewan this November 7. The campaign will get underway right after Labour Day, so there is an opportunity now to lay the groundwork for the election coverage here. Today's installment looks at the Official Opposition party, the Saskatchewan NDP.
Most people in the province regard the Saskatchewan NDP and its forerunner the Saskatchewan CCF to be the 'natural governing party' of Saskatchewan. At least that has been the case since 1944, when Tommy Douglas lead the Saskatchewan CCF to power in a landslide election win. The CCF under Douglas would go on to roll up wins in 1948, 1952, 1956 and 1960 before being defeated in 1964. The CCF used those 20 years in power to entrench their political base through building up the provincial civil service and the creation of and expansion of existing Crown Corporations, dozens and dozens of them. Today almost 100 Crown Corporations are the legacy of the Douglas Government in this province. Most of the Crowns are not as well known as the commercial entities of SaskTel, SaskPower, SaskEnergy, SGI and STC. Not all of the Crowns were founded by the CCF, but all of them certainly became mature entities during the Douglas Administration.
The CCF came back to power in Saskatchewan in 1971 as the New Democratic Party, led by Allan Blakeney. It was a time when the NDP voting base was further entrenched when thousands of 'baby boomers' were given employment in various sectors of government and the Crowns. It marked the last time the NDP would make a targeted effort to entrench its voting base provincially in Saskatchewan, on such a large scale.
The return of the Saskatchewan NDP to power in 1991 under Roy Romanow marked a turning point in the history of the party. Romanow had been Blakeney's Deputy Premier, and was acclaimed as party leader in 1987. Romanow's acclamation had the unintended result of delaying the renewal of the party and opening the NDP to the 'baby bust' generation born from 1966 to 1980. The Romanow Government's historic effort to eliminate the horrendous budget deficit from the Devine era and then ongoing efforts to bring the $16-billion debt under control further eroded the party's ability to recruit in the province. By 1995 the government's majority had been whittled away in rural Saskatchewan, and by 1999 the NDP presence in the rural seats was all but gone. The Romanow Government, being pre-occupied with controlling the province's finances, didn't come to grips with the transformation of the family farm into the corporate farm, and the result was the alienation of rural voters from the NDP. In the 12 years since the New Democrats first lost their rural voting base, there has been no sign that rural voters plan on returning to the NDP anytime soon.
1999 was another turning point for the Saskatchewan NDP. Not only did the rural base of the party disappear, but so did the Romanow Government's majority of seats in the Legislature. Left with just 29 seats after the September 16th election, the NDP entered a coalition government with the Saskatchewan Liberal Party's 3 remaining MLAs. While the NDP thought themselves clever at the time and were able to continue in power, the Coalition Government in hindsight has proven to be disaster for both the New Democrats and the Liberals. The Liberals have been destroyed as a result of that government and their political fortunes have now completely collapsed. The slow-motion train wreck that became the Saskatchewan Liberals as a result of that coalition government has created a situation where the NDP cannot now climb back into government. Under Lorne Calvert, the NDP were able to form a thin majority government in 2003, but that government proved to be aimless and without direction. Voters put the New Democrats out of government finally by 2007, and since then the party's fortunes have declined further.
Dwain Lingenfelter, a former high ranking cabinet minister from the Romanow Government, returned to Saskatchewan in 2009 after spending 9 years as an oil executive in Calgary. 'Link' won the Saskatchewan NDP leadership after an intense battle with 3 rivals and a scandal involving the sale of NDP memberships in the Meadow Lake area. Lingenfelter thus began his leadership under a dark cloud and without momentum. 'Link' had always prided himself on being a politician who lacked definition, but this came back to haunt him early in his leadership when the Sask Party bought ads that defined 'Link' as an angry, warped old man who is frustrated and out of touch with Saskatchewan people. The ads worked. Lingenfelter is now the most unpopular leader in the history of the Saskatchewan NDP, and his party is polling almost 30 percentage points behind the Sask Party. Lingenfelter also polls as enormously unpopular at a time with Premier Brad Wall is very very popular.
The public opinion polling done of the provincial parties also shows the collapse of the Saskatchewan Liberals to under 5 percent provincewide. All of the previous support that the Liberals had received in the past has made its way to the Saskatchewan Party, as evidenced by the growing base of support for the Saskatchewan Party from 1999 onward. The New Democrats now head into the fall election facing an impossible situation - fighting a popular Saskatchewan Party government that commands the entire free enterprise voting base. Just doing the math of adding Liberal and Sask Party support together from 2007 across the 58 seats in the Legislature shows that on November 7, the NDP stand to lose a minimum of 6 seats. But this is a conservative estimate since it doesn't take into account new voters who are voting for the first time or whom are from outside of the province. Thus the 2011 provincial election is a massive salvage operation for the NDP. The party is faced with the grim task of trying to salvage as many of its 20 seats in the Legislature as possible. With the adding of the 2007 Liberal vote to that of the Sask Party this fall, it will be virtually impossible for the New Democrats to pick up any new seats, except for perhaps Meadow Lake along the 'forest fringe'.
The prospect of a severely reduced NDP caucus will have immediate consequences for the post-election era. It is doubtful that Lingenfelter will be able or even willing to remain as Party Leader after November 7. New Democrats will then be plunged into their 3rd leadership race in the past decade. There is no shortage of potential leadership candidates for that contest, but the real question is if any of Link's successors will be capable of rebuilding the party. The New Democrats face many challenges in the years ahead, including an aging voting base, a caucus dominated by older MLAs and former Cabinet Ministers, and party desperately in need of a new vision for voters. However, there is some good news for the NDP. Lingenfelter has enjoyed some success in restoring the party's almost mythical ground organization in many seats across the province, as evidenced by having most of the party's candidates nominated before this summer. The New Democrats will also be able to draw on their rich tradition in the dark days ahead - stories of their fabled political past will be of some comfort to them as they fight for their political lives this time. And if the free enterprise voting base goes into disarray again after 2011 (which is entirely possible), then a window of opportunity may yet emerge for the Saskatchewan NDP to return to power in 2015 and thus maintain their domination over Saskatchewan politics.
But in the short term, the Saskatchewan NDP face a daunting chore this fall. It will not be happy task for the party to decide which of its 20 MLAs can be salvaged, and who will have to be thrown under the bus to save the others. To borrow a quote from Winston Churchill, November 7, 2011 may prove to be the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party's 'finest hour'.
Most people in the province regard the Saskatchewan NDP and its forerunner the Saskatchewan CCF to be the 'natural governing party' of Saskatchewan. At least that has been the case since 1944, when Tommy Douglas lead the Saskatchewan CCF to power in a landslide election win. The CCF under Douglas would go on to roll up wins in 1948, 1952, 1956 and 1960 before being defeated in 1964. The CCF used those 20 years in power to entrench their political base through building up the provincial civil service and the creation of and expansion of existing Crown Corporations, dozens and dozens of them. Today almost 100 Crown Corporations are the legacy of the Douglas Government in this province. Most of the Crowns are not as well known as the commercial entities of SaskTel, SaskPower, SaskEnergy, SGI and STC. Not all of the Crowns were founded by the CCF, but all of them certainly became mature entities during the Douglas Administration.
The CCF came back to power in Saskatchewan in 1971 as the New Democratic Party, led by Allan Blakeney. It was a time when the NDP voting base was further entrenched when thousands of 'baby boomers' were given employment in various sectors of government and the Crowns. It marked the last time the NDP would make a targeted effort to entrench its voting base provincially in Saskatchewan, on such a large scale.
The return of the Saskatchewan NDP to power in 1991 under Roy Romanow marked a turning point in the history of the party. Romanow had been Blakeney's Deputy Premier, and was acclaimed as party leader in 1987. Romanow's acclamation had the unintended result of delaying the renewal of the party and opening the NDP to the 'baby bust' generation born from 1966 to 1980. The Romanow Government's historic effort to eliminate the horrendous budget deficit from the Devine era and then ongoing efforts to bring the $16-billion debt under control further eroded the party's ability to recruit in the province. By 1995 the government's majority had been whittled away in rural Saskatchewan, and by 1999 the NDP presence in the rural seats was all but gone. The Romanow Government, being pre-occupied with controlling the province's finances, didn't come to grips with the transformation of the family farm into the corporate farm, and the result was the alienation of rural voters from the NDP. In the 12 years since the New Democrats first lost their rural voting base, there has been no sign that rural voters plan on returning to the NDP anytime soon.
1999 was another turning point for the Saskatchewan NDP. Not only did the rural base of the party disappear, but so did the Romanow Government's majority of seats in the Legislature. Left with just 29 seats after the September 16th election, the NDP entered a coalition government with the Saskatchewan Liberal Party's 3 remaining MLAs. While the NDP thought themselves clever at the time and were able to continue in power, the Coalition Government in hindsight has proven to be disaster for both the New Democrats and the Liberals. The Liberals have been destroyed as a result of that government and their political fortunes have now completely collapsed. The slow-motion train wreck that became the Saskatchewan Liberals as a result of that coalition government has created a situation where the NDP cannot now climb back into government. Under Lorne Calvert, the NDP were able to form a thin majority government in 2003, but that government proved to be aimless and without direction. Voters put the New Democrats out of government finally by 2007, and since then the party's fortunes have declined further.
Dwain Lingenfelter, a former high ranking cabinet minister from the Romanow Government, returned to Saskatchewan in 2009 after spending 9 years as an oil executive in Calgary. 'Link' won the Saskatchewan NDP leadership after an intense battle with 3 rivals and a scandal involving the sale of NDP memberships in the Meadow Lake area. Lingenfelter thus began his leadership under a dark cloud and without momentum. 'Link' had always prided himself on being a politician who lacked definition, but this came back to haunt him early in his leadership when the Sask Party bought ads that defined 'Link' as an angry, warped old man who is frustrated and out of touch with Saskatchewan people. The ads worked. Lingenfelter is now the most unpopular leader in the history of the Saskatchewan NDP, and his party is polling almost 30 percentage points behind the Sask Party. Lingenfelter also polls as enormously unpopular at a time with Premier Brad Wall is very very popular.
The public opinion polling done of the provincial parties also shows the collapse of the Saskatchewan Liberals to under 5 percent provincewide. All of the previous support that the Liberals had received in the past has made its way to the Saskatchewan Party, as evidenced by the growing base of support for the Saskatchewan Party from 1999 onward. The New Democrats now head into the fall election facing an impossible situation - fighting a popular Saskatchewan Party government that commands the entire free enterprise voting base. Just doing the math of adding Liberal and Sask Party support together from 2007 across the 58 seats in the Legislature shows that on November 7, the NDP stand to lose a minimum of 6 seats. But this is a conservative estimate since it doesn't take into account new voters who are voting for the first time or whom are from outside of the province. Thus the 2011 provincial election is a massive salvage operation for the NDP. The party is faced with the grim task of trying to salvage as many of its 20 seats in the Legislature as possible. With the adding of the 2007 Liberal vote to that of the Sask Party this fall, it will be virtually impossible for the New Democrats to pick up any new seats, except for perhaps Meadow Lake along the 'forest fringe'.
The prospect of a severely reduced NDP caucus will have immediate consequences for the post-election era. It is doubtful that Lingenfelter will be able or even willing to remain as Party Leader after November 7. New Democrats will then be plunged into their 3rd leadership race in the past decade. There is no shortage of potential leadership candidates for that contest, but the real question is if any of Link's successors will be capable of rebuilding the party. The New Democrats face many challenges in the years ahead, including an aging voting base, a caucus dominated by older MLAs and former Cabinet Ministers, and party desperately in need of a new vision for voters. However, there is some good news for the NDP. Lingenfelter has enjoyed some success in restoring the party's almost mythical ground organization in many seats across the province, as evidenced by having most of the party's candidates nominated before this summer. The New Democrats will also be able to draw on their rich tradition in the dark days ahead - stories of their fabled political past will be of some comfort to them as they fight for their political lives this time. And if the free enterprise voting base goes into disarray again after 2011 (which is entirely possible), then a window of opportunity may yet emerge for the Saskatchewan NDP to return to power in 2015 and thus maintain their domination over Saskatchewan politics.
But in the short term, the Saskatchewan NDP face a daunting chore this fall. It will not be happy task for the party to decide which of its 20 MLAs can be salvaged, and who will have to be thrown under the bus to save the others. To borrow a quote from Winston Churchill, November 7, 2011 may prove to be the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party's 'finest hour'.
Monday, August 22, 2011
A legacy yet to be written... May Jack Layton rest in peace
This morning brings sad news to the nation: Jack Layton died this morning at home surrounded by those he loved.
As the country wakes up to the news, the numerous comments on message boards, Facebook and Twitter all carry a similar theme... He will indeed be sorely missed.
This singular man - husband, father, son, grandfather - made a difference. A big difference. He brought a passion to this country not witnessed before in the lives of so many Canadians - for those under fifty and especially those under thirty.
This singular man sparked interest. This singular man moved people - regardless of political stripe - to take notice. In this era of general public disinterest in politics, here in Canada Jack Layton was able to move the bar. He was able to raise expectations.
As we here in Saskatchewan move towards our next opportunity to take interest in a political cycle - which allows us to choose who we collectively want to lead us over the next four years - let us remember Jack Layton. Remember the passion. Remember that politics and political campaigns can and should be about more than slinging mud at one another, and that the vast majority of people - those outside the campaign offices - do now expect much better.
This singular man will be dearly missed. Rest easy dear Jack... you were loved and respected beyond imagine. Your legacy is yet to be written.
As the country wakes up to the news, the numerous comments on message boards, Facebook and Twitter all carry a similar theme... He will indeed be sorely missed.
This singular man - husband, father, son, grandfather - made a difference. A big difference. He brought a passion to this country not witnessed before in the lives of so many Canadians - for those under fifty and especially those under thirty.
This singular man sparked interest. This singular man moved people - regardless of political stripe - to take notice. In this era of general public disinterest in politics, here in Canada Jack Layton was able to move the bar. He was able to raise expectations.
As we here in Saskatchewan move towards our next opportunity to take interest in a political cycle - which allows us to choose who we collectively want to lead us over the next four years - let us remember Jack Layton. Remember the passion. Remember that politics and political campaigns can and should be about more than slinging mud at one another, and that the vast majority of people - those outside the campaign offices - do now expect much better.
This singular man will be dearly missed. Rest easy dear Jack... you were loved and respected beyond imagine. Your legacy is yet to be written.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Priming the Pump Part 2 - The Saskatchewan Party
Welcome to Part 2 of Priming the Pump for the November 7, 2011 provincial election in Saskatchewan. today's installment looks at the governing Saskatchewan Party. The Saskatchewan Party is a relatively new phenomenon in the province, having been formed in 1997 as a coalition of classical liberal and conservative voters. 4 Liberal and 4 PC MLAs came together to form the party. By all measuring sticks, it has been enormously successful, having gone from 8 seats in 1997 to 10 by June 1999 and 25 by September 1999, 28 in 2003, and 38 in 2007. With 4 years of governing experience under its belt and a Premier more popular than any other in this province since the days of Tommy Douglas, the Sask Party is headed for re-election this fall. Polling done recently by Insightrix shows the Sask Party standing at 58 percent of the vote provincewide.
Let's reflect on that for a moment. At 58 percent provincewide, that means 6 out of every 10 people who plan to vote this fall, are prepared to vote for the Saskatchewan Party. This captures all of the conservative and liberal voters in this province, and some former New Democrats too. The reason for this is our unique political culture in Western Canada. We are not like Canadians in the East - we like our politics with a right-wing, meaty edge to it. Even the Saskatchewan NDP is significantly to the right of its brethren in provinces to the east of us.Thus all voters who deem themselves free enterprisers are now on board the Sask Party bandwagon. This means the Sask Party is set to capture more seats this fall than in did in 2007.
How many more you ask? In the weeks ahead, we will give you a more concrete idea of the coming magnitude of the Sask Party victory, on a seat by seat basis. For now, just based on the numbers from 2007 and the dynamics heading into this election, it appears the Sask Party will capture a minimum of 6 seats from the 20-seat NDP opposition. If the Sask Party can pick up more than 6 seats from the NDP, that will depend entirely on how new Saskatchewan residents vote, and the dynamics of the election writ period; in other words, how much momentum the Sask Party can generate.
So for the Saskatchewan Party, the only big problem they face this fall is potential apathy from their own supporters. The Sask Party is more than a country mile ahead of the NDP right now, and that might prompt many Sask Party voters to simply stay home on election day, thinking this race is 'in the bag'. The challenge for Premier Brad Wall and his team will be to motivate activists and voters to make the trek to the polls on November 7.
It is beyond November 7 though where the Saskatchewan Party faces true tests to its mettle. Since the party was founded in 1997, the Saskatchewan Party has enjoyed a steady rise in our province's politics, hitting few speed bumps along the way. Here are a few questions to consider:
Part 3 will look at the fortunes of the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party.
Let's reflect on that for a moment. At 58 percent provincewide, that means 6 out of every 10 people who plan to vote this fall, are prepared to vote for the Saskatchewan Party. This captures all of the conservative and liberal voters in this province, and some former New Democrats too. The reason for this is our unique political culture in Western Canada. We are not like Canadians in the East - we like our politics with a right-wing, meaty edge to it. Even the Saskatchewan NDP is significantly to the right of its brethren in provinces to the east of us.Thus all voters who deem themselves free enterprisers are now on board the Sask Party bandwagon. This means the Sask Party is set to capture more seats this fall than in did in 2007.
How many more you ask? In the weeks ahead, we will give you a more concrete idea of the coming magnitude of the Sask Party victory, on a seat by seat basis. For now, just based on the numbers from 2007 and the dynamics heading into this election, it appears the Sask Party will capture a minimum of 6 seats from the 20-seat NDP opposition. If the Sask Party can pick up more than 6 seats from the NDP, that will depend entirely on how new Saskatchewan residents vote, and the dynamics of the election writ period; in other words, how much momentum the Sask Party can generate.
So for the Saskatchewan Party, the only big problem they face this fall is potential apathy from their own supporters. The Sask Party is more than a country mile ahead of the NDP right now, and that might prompt many Sask Party voters to simply stay home on election day, thinking this race is 'in the bag'. The challenge for Premier Brad Wall and his team will be to motivate activists and voters to make the trek to the polls on November 7.
It is beyond November 7 though where the Saskatchewan Party faces true tests to its mettle. Since the party was founded in 1997, the Saskatchewan Party has enjoyed a steady rise in our province's politics, hitting few speed bumps along the way. Here are a few questions to consider:
- Will the Saskatchewan Party peak in popular support this fall?
- Will a second term Saskatchewan Party Government be the same as the first term?
- Will core Saskatchewan Party supporters tolerate another four years of NDP-lite government by Premier Wall and crew?
- If free enterprisers ever grow disenchanted with the Sask Party, where will they go, and what will they do?
- Does Premier Wall have plans to jump to the federal political arena?
- Will the Saskatchewan Party win a 3rd majority government in 2015?
Part 3 will look at the fortunes of the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party.
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