The question being posed here is, will there be any surprises in the election results on November 7? Of course there will be - there are always surprises in election results! However the outcome of the 2011 election has been confidently predicted by political pundits years in advance - this means that we are guaranteed to see at least one surprise on November 7!
So what might this surprise be? The conventional wisdom is that the Saskatchewan Party will gain seats at the expense of the NDP as it cruises to a second term. Given the consistent public polling results that have been released in recent years, it is unlikely that this conventional wisdom will not come to pass.
Therefore the coming surprises may have something to do with the magnitude of the Saskatchewan Party's victory and the scope of defeat for the Saskatchewan NDP. Therefore two possibilities emerge - either the Sask Party could gain more seats and the NDP could lose more seats than expected, or the Sask Party could gain fewer eats and the NDP could lose fewer seats than expected. Unless there is a dramatic shift in opinion before November 7, we are unlikely to see the NDP build on the 20 seats that they currently hold in the Legislature. But this doesn't mean that the NDP can't defeat any incumbent Sask Party MLAs.
There are 3 seats where Sask Party MLAs are vulnerable to NDP victories this fall. The margins of victory for Darryl Hickie in Prince Albert Carlton, Warren Michelson in Moose Jaw North and Jeremy Harrison in Meadow Lake were all within 100 votes last time. If you add the votes that the Liberal candidates in those constituencies received in 2007 to the Sask Party total, the pluralities of victory for Hickie, Michelson and Harrison grow to 660 votes, 236 votes and 431 votes respectively. Of the 3, it appears that Harrison is the most vulnerable to a surprise NDP win, since a plurality of 236 votes is not an insurmountable lead. However, at this point there is provincewide momentum for the Saskatchewan Party, and likely many new voters in these ridings who are originally from out-of-province. Thus the challenge for the Sask Party and the Sask NDP will be command momentum in this marginal ridings and to deliver enough identified supporters to the polls to ensure a victory. Who ever said Saskatchewan politics is boring?!
Saturday, September 3, 2011
Friday, September 2, 2011
What is the new bellwether constituency in Saskatchewan politics?
A bellwether constituency has the unique quality of almost always ending up on the government side of the Legislature in a provincial election. From 1912 until 1999 the traditional bellwether constituency in Saskatchewan provincial politics was the Last Mountain-Touchwood seat. This constituency elected government MLAs in the overwhelming number of provincial elections during this period, with the noted exceptions of 1908, 1929 and 1938. In 1908 Thomas Anderson was elected as the MLA for Last Mountain for the Provincial Rights party, and Jake Benson of Semans won this seat as a Progressive in 1929 and for the CCF in 1938.
However the bellwether tradition in Last Mountain-Touchwood abruptly ended in recent times. Glen Hart was elected in 1999 and re-elected in 2003 for the opposition Saskatchewan Party. So the question should be posed - is there a new bellwether constituency in Saskatchewan politics? The answer to that question is a cautious and preliminary yes.
After a careful analysis of Saskatchewan's current 58 constituencies, it appears there is a worthy candidate for being the new bellwether riding in Saskatchewan politics. That constituency is none other than Regina Wascana Plains, whose current MLA is Christine Tell with the Saskatchewan Party. Tell won this seat for the Saskatchewan Party in 2007, and as the Sask Party looks certain to win a second term this fall, the word on the ground is that Tell is a safe bet to be re-elected in Regina Wascana Plains.
But this constituency bears somewhat closer scrutiny, just to make sure it cuts the bellwether mustard. The riding now called Regina Wascana Plains first came into being in 1967 and was won at that time by Henry Baker, the long-time Mayor of Regina. Baker was a CCF candidate and the election was won by the Liberals. Baker was re-elected in 1971 as an NDP candidate and the election was won by Allan Blakeney and the NDP. In 1975 the seat was changed to Regina Wascana and it was won by Tony Merchant of the Liberals, though the Blakeney Government was re-elected. But in 1978 Clinton White of the NDP won this seat, and in every provincial election since 1978, the constituency has consistently been on the government side of the Legislature. In 1982 Gord Currie of the Tories won this seat, followed by PC candidate Beattie Martin in 1986, and Doreen Hamilton of the NDP in 1991, 1995, 1999 and 2003.
However the bellwether tradition in Last Mountain-Touchwood abruptly ended in recent times. Glen Hart was elected in 1999 and re-elected in 2003 for the opposition Saskatchewan Party. So the question should be posed - is there a new bellwether constituency in Saskatchewan politics? The answer to that question is a cautious and preliminary yes.
After a careful analysis of Saskatchewan's current 58 constituencies, it appears there is a worthy candidate for being the new bellwether riding in Saskatchewan politics. That constituency is none other than Regina Wascana Plains, whose current MLA is Christine Tell with the Saskatchewan Party. Tell won this seat for the Saskatchewan Party in 2007, and as the Sask Party looks certain to win a second term this fall, the word on the ground is that Tell is a safe bet to be re-elected in Regina Wascana Plains.
But this constituency bears somewhat closer scrutiny, just to make sure it cuts the bellwether mustard. The riding now called Regina Wascana Plains first came into being in 1967 and was won at that time by Henry Baker, the long-time Mayor of Regina. Baker was a CCF candidate and the election was won by the Liberals. Baker was re-elected in 1971 as an NDP candidate and the election was won by Allan Blakeney and the NDP. In 1975 the seat was changed to Regina Wascana and it was won by Tony Merchant of the Liberals, though the Blakeney Government was re-elected. But in 1978 Clinton White of the NDP won this seat, and in every provincial election since 1978, the constituency has consistently been on the government side of the Legislature. In 1982 Gord Currie of the Tories won this seat, followed by PC candidate Beattie Martin in 1986, and Doreen Hamilton of the NDP in 1991, 1995, 1999 and 2003.
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Saskatchewan's new November election tradition
With the rise of fixed provincial election dates in Saskatchewan, our province now has a new political tradition of November election dates. This is a fairly recent development; the previous two provincial elections in 2003 and 2007 happened in November. And as we all know, this year's election will be held on November 7.
There used to be a strong tradition of holding provincial elections in Saskatchewan in the month of June. The first June election in Saskatchewan was in 1917. This was followed by June provincial elections in 1921, 1925, 1929, 1934, 1938, 1944, 1948, 1952, 1956 and 1960. But since 1960 June elections have become a more rare event, with the only June elections in the past 50 years being in 1971, 1975 and 1995.
The reasoning for June elections in Saskatchewan was fairly straightforward - the weather was guaranteed to be reasonable for voter turnout, and it is a time of year when optimism usually runs fairly high. In analyzing the outcomes of June elections in Saskatchewan, the incumbent government has always been re-elected with two major exceptions - 1944 and 1971. In those elections the opposition NDP rode a wave of voter discontent to power over incumbent Liberal governments.
Now we are into a period in Saskatchewan political history where November elections are going to be the norm. So what is the rational for November election dates? It can't be based on weather - any election date beyond October 1 always runs the risk of running into the onset of winter. Winter weather likely drives down voter turnout. Therefore the inclination toward November elections probably has something more to do with voter psychology. Just think about it - November can be a cold, windy month. Often there is snow on the ground, but even if there is no snow yet in November, the landscape across the province is barren after harvest and non-evergreen trees have shed their leaves. Thus it is a time of year when voters are less likely to want to vote for change - and therefore would be more inclined to re-elect the incumbent government. In plan English, November is not a time when Saskatchewan voters are conditioned to vote for change.
However, voters in 2007 did opt for change, from Lorne Calvert and the NDP to Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan Party. However, the Sask Party did not run the typical negative campaign that one would expect of an opposition party. In the 2007 election, Wall and the Sask Party went out of their way to say this was going to be a positive change, where hope beats fear. That message resonated with voters and helped push the Saskatchewan Party over the top in some close urban battles.
There used to be a strong tradition of holding provincial elections in Saskatchewan in the month of June. The first June election in Saskatchewan was in 1917. This was followed by June provincial elections in 1921, 1925, 1929, 1934, 1938, 1944, 1948, 1952, 1956 and 1960. But since 1960 June elections have become a more rare event, with the only June elections in the past 50 years being in 1971, 1975 and 1995.
The reasoning for June elections in Saskatchewan was fairly straightforward - the weather was guaranteed to be reasonable for voter turnout, and it is a time of year when optimism usually runs fairly high. In analyzing the outcomes of June elections in Saskatchewan, the incumbent government has always been re-elected with two major exceptions - 1944 and 1971. In those elections the opposition NDP rode a wave of voter discontent to power over incumbent Liberal governments.
Now we are into a period in Saskatchewan political history where November elections are going to be the norm. So what is the rational for November election dates? It can't be based on weather - any election date beyond October 1 always runs the risk of running into the onset of winter. Winter weather likely drives down voter turnout. Therefore the inclination toward November elections probably has something more to do with voter psychology. Just think about it - November can be a cold, windy month. Often there is snow on the ground, but even if there is no snow yet in November, the landscape across the province is barren after harvest and non-evergreen trees have shed their leaves. Thus it is a time of year when voters are less likely to want to vote for change - and therefore would be more inclined to re-elect the incumbent government. In plan English, November is not a time when Saskatchewan voters are conditioned to vote for change.
However, voters in 2007 did opt for change, from Lorne Calvert and the NDP to Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan Party. However, the Sask Party did not run the typical negative campaign that one would expect of an opposition party. In the 2007 election, Wall and the Sask Party went out of their way to say this was going to be a positive change, where hope beats fear. That message resonated with voters and helped push the Saskatchewan Party over the top in some close urban battles.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Priming the Pump for November 7, Part 7 - the Western Independence Party
This is the final installment in the Priming the Pump series in lead up to the November 7 provincial election in Saskatchewan. Today we look at the Western Independence Party of Saskatchewan or WIP.
The WIP is not the first Western Canadian separatist party in this province. The forerunner to the WIP was the Western Canada Concept or WCC party that contested the 1982 and 1986 provincial elections. The WCC fielded candidates in most constituencies in 1982 but failed to elect anyone. However many WCC candidates did finish third ahead of the Liberals. The party's strongest showing was in the rural seats south of the Trans Canada Highway; the WCC wave began about mid-election on the eastern side of the province, swept west to the Alberta border and began to fizzle out by election day. Thus the party's best showings were in the southwest rural seats, where 2 New Democrat MLAs managed to survive the 'Monday Night Massacre'.
In February 1986 two renegade PC MLAs joined the WCC, Bill Sveinson and Lloyd Hampton. Sveinson bolted from the PC party in 1983 and joined the Liberals. But in 1985 Sveinson was booted from the Liberals and convinced Hampton to join him in the WCC. Thus for a time the WCC was the Third Party in the Legislature. There was a controversy within the WCC at the time, since the Party Leader welcomed the new MLAs while the Party President did not. However both MLAs were shown the door before the next provincial election. Shortly after 1986 the WCC faded from the Saskatchewan political scene.
The WIP does not appear to share anything in common with the WCC, other than they both advocate the formation of a new nation in Western Canada. In fact the WIP has passed a resolution that supports the State of Israel to deliberately separate itself from the WCC. The WIP was formed on July 12, 2003 and ran 17 candidates in the subsequent election. None of the candidates were elected and the party 0.64% of the provincial vote. Just 8 candidates were chosen for the 2007 election and again no MLAs were elected.
The newest Leader of the WIP is Dana Arnason, and he will be running in the Biggar constituency this fall. It is not clear yet how many other candidates the party will run. At the present time there is no polling that has been done to indicate what kind of support there would be for the Western separation in Saskatchewan at this time. The WIP does not show up in public opinion polling so it is unlikely the party will make a big splash this fall. This party's identity is tied to the issue of Western separation and it is not an issue that is currently on the public radar screen. However if a future government in Ottawa were to make a move that alienates Westerners, support for a party like the WIP in Saskatchewan could explode overnight. The potential for a powerful Western Separatist movement in this part of the world always ripples just under the surface; it is always one insult from Ottawa away. However for now it appears such a movement lies dormant. At this point it appears unlikely that the Western-based Conservative government in Ottawa will come to alienate Westerners in the same way that the federal Liberals did.
The WIP is not the first Western Canadian separatist party in this province. The forerunner to the WIP was the Western Canada Concept or WCC party that contested the 1982 and 1986 provincial elections. The WCC fielded candidates in most constituencies in 1982 but failed to elect anyone. However many WCC candidates did finish third ahead of the Liberals. The party's strongest showing was in the rural seats south of the Trans Canada Highway; the WCC wave began about mid-election on the eastern side of the province, swept west to the Alberta border and began to fizzle out by election day. Thus the party's best showings were in the southwest rural seats, where 2 New Democrat MLAs managed to survive the 'Monday Night Massacre'.
In February 1986 two renegade PC MLAs joined the WCC, Bill Sveinson and Lloyd Hampton. Sveinson bolted from the PC party in 1983 and joined the Liberals. But in 1985 Sveinson was booted from the Liberals and convinced Hampton to join him in the WCC. Thus for a time the WCC was the Third Party in the Legislature. There was a controversy within the WCC at the time, since the Party Leader welcomed the new MLAs while the Party President did not. However both MLAs were shown the door before the next provincial election. Shortly after 1986 the WCC faded from the Saskatchewan political scene.
The WIP does not appear to share anything in common with the WCC, other than they both advocate the formation of a new nation in Western Canada. In fact the WIP has passed a resolution that supports the State of Israel to deliberately separate itself from the WCC. The WIP was formed on July 12, 2003 and ran 17 candidates in the subsequent election. None of the candidates were elected and the party 0.64% of the provincial vote. Just 8 candidates were chosen for the 2007 election and again no MLAs were elected.
The newest Leader of the WIP is Dana Arnason, and he will be running in the Biggar constituency this fall. It is not clear yet how many other candidates the party will run. At the present time there is no polling that has been done to indicate what kind of support there would be for the Western separation in Saskatchewan at this time. The WIP does not show up in public opinion polling so it is unlikely the party will make a big splash this fall. This party's identity is tied to the issue of Western separation and it is not an issue that is currently on the public radar screen. However if a future government in Ottawa were to make a move that alienates Westerners, support for a party like the WIP in Saskatchewan could explode overnight. The potential for a powerful Western Separatist movement in this part of the world always ripples just under the surface; it is always one insult from Ottawa away. However for now it appears such a movement lies dormant. At this point it appears unlikely that the Western-based Conservative government in Ottawa will come to alienate Westerners in the same way that the federal Liberals did.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Priming the Pump for November 7, Part 6 - the PC Party
Today is Part 6 of the short 'Priming the Pump' series in lead up to the November 7 provincial election in Saskatchewan. In the second last of the series we look today at the PC Party of Saskatchewan.
The Progressive Conservatives are Saskatchewan's second oldest political party. It first appeared on ballots in the 1912 election, having emerged from the Provincial Rights party. Today the PCs are a mere shadow of their former selves in recent times. 25 years ago the Tories were in government; today they are a fringe party.
The Tories struggled for most of Saskatchewan's early history, continually placing a distant second to the Liberals. In 1929 the Liberals were forced into a minority result and the Conservatives under James Anderson formed a coalition government with 6 Progressive MLAs and 5 Independents. But a dark cloud hung over this government, as it was alleged the Ku Klux Klan was behind the rise of the Tories. By 1934 every member of the Anderson government was defeated. 1934 marked the start of a long dry spell for the party in Saskatchewan, and not elect a single MLA for the next 5 provincial elections.
In 1964 a single Progressive Conservative was elected to the Legislature, and the party managed to secure 18 percent of the provincial vote. The MLA was party leader Martin Pederson of Hawarden, the member for Arm River. Herman Danielson had been the Liberal MLA for Arm River since 1934, but Pederson defeated him. It was the same election that saw the Liberals return to power in Saskatchewan under the leadership of Ross Thatcher.
However Pederson was defeated in 1967, and the PCs also returned to the margins. By 1971 the party fielded only 16 candidates and garnered just 2 percent of votes provincewide. But in 1973 the PCs merged with the Social Credit party, and Dick Collver beat Lloyd Avram in a leadership race. In hindsight 1973 proved to be a pivotal year for the PCs. Collver had been a fundraiser for the Saskatchewan Liberals, but became alienated after the Thatcher Government adopted user fees for visits to doctors. Collver spent the next 2 years traveling the province to build the PC party from scratch. By 1975 Collver's hard work had paid off with the election of 7 MLAs and the capturing of 28 percent of the vote. By 1978 the PCs were tied with the Liberals in the Legislature at 11 MLAs each and in the provincial election that year the Tories finally replaced the Liberals as the main opposition to the NDP by winning 17 seats - the Liberals were left seatless. Collver stepped down as leader in 1979 to lead the Unionest party, and was replaced by Grant Devine, a U of S professor in Agricultural Economics.
The Tories under Devine went on to win a historic landslide win in 1982 now called the 'Monday Night Massacre'. It was an event that changed Saskatchewan political history. The first term of the Devine Government provided relatively 'good' government to the province. But the second term that began after 1986 resulted in near disaster. Today it is widely agreed upon that the second term of the Devine Government was one of the worst governments in Canadian history. The Tories massively overspent while in power, to the point where the annual budget deficit was on average about $1-billion per year. The result was that by the time the PCs were defeated in 1991, the province ended up with a $16-billion debt and the public treasury was teetering on the brink of default.
The PC party went into sharp decline after 1991 election due to some unforeseen events. Revelations of scandal and malfeasance overwhelmed any hope the party had of rebuilding, with several former MLA and paid staff being sent to prison for fraud. By 1995 the party was in a struggle for survival. A young farmer from Eston named Bill Boyd had been elected MLA in 1991 in the Kindersley constituency. Boyd became leader of the party in 1994, and embarked on a historic mission to save the party's remaining MLAs. Boyd's strategy paid off - while the PCs were reduced to third place in the 1995 election, the party salvaged 5 of its 10 seats. Two years later 4 of those MLAs including Boyd joined with 4 Liberals MLAs to form the Saskatchewan Party in a news conference in the Blue Lounge at the Hotel Saskatchewan on August 8, 1997.
In October 1997, party members made a sombre gathering at the Regina Inn and made the heartwrenching decision to put the party into suspended animation. It was agreed that the party would sit out the next 2 provincial elections and that a special board of trustees would administer the Regina PC Metro Trust Fund. After the 2003 provincial election the PC party came out of hibernation and former MLA and cabinet minister Rick Swenson became the new party leader. Since that time the PCs have run a handful of candidates in the 2007 provincial election and contested the Saskatoon Northwest by-election last fall, but the party's results were unimpressive in both contests. So far the party has nominated candidates in the 2 Moose Jaw constituencies, including Swenson in Moose Jaw North. The party's efforts at rebuilding are hamstrung by an ongoing court case with the Saskatchewan Party over control of the PC Trust Fund. The outcome of that court case may determine the future fortunes of the Tory party. At the same time, it is not clear if the legacy of the Devine Government will hobble a potential rebuilding of the PC Party in the future; in time memory of that government's infamy may fade. But for the time being the Tories are small fry in the grand pond of Saskatchewan politics.
The Progressive Conservatives are Saskatchewan's second oldest political party. It first appeared on ballots in the 1912 election, having emerged from the Provincial Rights party. Today the PCs are a mere shadow of their former selves in recent times. 25 years ago the Tories were in government; today they are a fringe party.
The Tories struggled for most of Saskatchewan's early history, continually placing a distant second to the Liberals. In 1929 the Liberals were forced into a minority result and the Conservatives under James Anderson formed a coalition government with 6 Progressive MLAs and 5 Independents. But a dark cloud hung over this government, as it was alleged the Ku Klux Klan was behind the rise of the Tories. By 1934 every member of the Anderson government was defeated. 1934 marked the start of a long dry spell for the party in Saskatchewan, and not elect a single MLA for the next 5 provincial elections.
In 1964 a single Progressive Conservative was elected to the Legislature, and the party managed to secure 18 percent of the provincial vote. The MLA was party leader Martin Pederson of Hawarden, the member for Arm River. Herman Danielson had been the Liberal MLA for Arm River since 1934, but Pederson defeated him. It was the same election that saw the Liberals return to power in Saskatchewan under the leadership of Ross Thatcher.
However Pederson was defeated in 1967, and the PCs also returned to the margins. By 1971 the party fielded only 16 candidates and garnered just 2 percent of votes provincewide. But in 1973 the PCs merged with the Social Credit party, and Dick Collver beat Lloyd Avram in a leadership race. In hindsight 1973 proved to be a pivotal year for the PCs. Collver had been a fundraiser for the Saskatchewan Liberals, but became alienated after the Thatcher Government adopted user fees for visits to doctors. Collver spent the next 2 years traveling the province to build the PC party from scratch. By 1975 Collver's hard work had paid off with the election of 7 MLAs and the capturing of 28 percent of the vote. By 1978 the PCs were tied with the Liberals in the Legislature at 11 MLAs each and in the provincial election that year the Tories finally replaced the Liberals as the main opposition to the NDP by winning 17 seats - the Liberals were left seatless. Collver stepped down as leader in 1979 to lead the Unionest party, and was replaced by Grant Devine, a U of S professor in Agricultural Economics.
The Tories under Devine went on to win a historic landslide win in 1982 now called the 'Monday Night Massacre'. It was an event that changed Saskatchewan political history. The first term of the Devine Government provided relatively 'good' government to the province. But the second term that began after 1986 resulted in near disaster. Today it is widely agreed upon that the second term of the Devine Government was one of the worst governments in Canadian history. The Tories massively overspent while in power, to the point where the annual budget deficit was on average about $1-billion per year. The result was that by the time the PCs were defeated in 1991, the province ended up with a $16-billion debt and the public treasury was teetering on the brink of default.
The PC party went into sharp decline after 1991 election due to some unforeseen events. Revelations of scandal and malfeasance overwhelmed any hope the party had of rebuilding, with several former MLA and paid staff being sent to prison for fraud. By 1995 the party was in a struggle for survival. A young farmer from Eston named Bill Boyd had been elected MLA in 1991 in the Kindersley constituency. Boyd became leader of the party in 1994, and embarked on a historic mission to save the party's remaining MLAs. Boyd's strategy paid off - while the PCs were reduced to third place in the 1995 election, the party salvaged 5 of its 10 seats. Two years later 4 of those MLAs including Boyd joined with 4 Liberals MLAs to form the Saskatchewan Party in a news conference in the Blue Lounge at the Hotel Saskatchewan on August 8, 1997.
In October 1997, party members made a sombre gathering at the Regina Inn and made the heartwrenching decision to put the party into suspended animation. It was agreed that the party would sit out the next 2 provincial elections and that a special board of trustees would administer the Regina PC Metro Trust Fund. After the 2003 provincial election the PC party came out of hibernation and former MLA and cabinet minister Rick Swenson became the new party leader. Since that time the PCs have run a handful of candidates in the 2007 provincial election and contested the Saskatoon Northwest by-election last fall, but the party's results were unimpressive in both contests. So far the party has nominated candidates in the 2 Moose Jaw constituencies, including Swenson in Moose Jaw North. The party's efforts at rebuilding are hamstrung by an ongoing court case with the Saskatchewan Party over control of the PC Trust Fund. The outcome of that court case may determine the future fortunes of the Tory party. At the same time, it is not clear if the legacy of the Devine Government will hobble a potential rebuilding of the PC Party in the future; in time memory of that government's infamy may fade. But for the time being the Tories are small fry in the grand pond of Saskatchewan politics.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Priming the Pump for November 7 Part 5 - the Greens
Our series on 'Priming the Pump' or setting the stage for our coverage of the 2011 provincial election on November 7 continues with an installment on the Green Party of Saskatchewan.
Compared to other political parties in the province, the Greens have a relatively new history in this province. The forerunner of the Green Party of Saskatchewan was the New Green Alliance, founded on Earth day in Regina in 1998. The founders of the party had been meeting for some time; many of the individuals were former New Democrats who had grown extremely disenchanted with the Romanow Government. 1998 was in the middle of the Romanow Government's second term, and the unhappiness among left-wing political activists with the NDP had reached a boil. The first election run for the NGA was not that impressive - they fielded 16 candidates but won 1 percent of the vote. In 2003 the Greens fielded 27 candidates but only got 0.5% of the vote. In 2007 the rechristened Green Party of Saskatchewan ran 48 out of 58 candidates and managed to secure 2 percent of the vote.
The party was going nowhere for the first few years of its existence. That all appeared to change with the arrival of Sandra Finley in the party's leadership. Finley became leader in 2006 and started a major organizational drive within the party that resulted in a near full slate of candidates for the party. Finley left the leadership to face a court challenge regarding the Canadian census. Finley refused to fill out the long-form census in 2006 - she ended up being convicted but served no jail time.
There are signs that the organizational push from 2007 has grown within the Green Party. The party is currently about 15 candidates short of a full slate, and actual nomination meetings were held to install several of the candidates. In the past all Green candidates were simply appointed due to a lack of on-the-ground organization for the Greens. And according to Facebook some of the Regina candidates are holding fundraising events in lead up to the election. No such events were held in the past. So for the first time, the Green Party of Saskatchewan is starting to take the form of a bonafide political party and not a small rabble of fringe protestors.
It also appears that by the time voters cast their ballots on November 7, the Saskatchewan Greens may become the province's new third party based on total ballots cast. As mentioned before the party could end up running a full slate of candidates this time, with many of the candidates running actually on-the-ground campaigns and not merely being parachute candidates. It was also revealed last week that the Saskatchewan Liberals only plan to run about 15 candidates this fall. Thus the Greens have an opportunity to move up the province's political food chain, at least in rankings.
However, many significant obstacles stand in the party's way. The Greens lack a strong media presence; they appear in the news sporadically, and usually focus on issues of narrow or marginal importance like opposition to nuclear energy. The party's constitution is also flawed in that it contains provision for the annual election of a new leader. Thus it has been very difficult for any of the party's leaders to establish a presence or make any real progress in building the party. Until recently the Greens lacked individuals with organizational drive and fundraising experience. And the collective wisdom of the party's decision makers is at best befuddled and at worst incompetent, given the recent decision to allow Brendan Cross to become a prospective candidate for the party in Regina Rosemont.
With the enormous unpopularity of Dwain Lingenfelter and the Saskatchewan NDP heading into this election, the Greens could make some substantial gains in this election. However to fully capitalize on the situation the Greens will need to run a full slate of candidates, and the party's decision makers need to learn how non-members perceive their party and the decisions they make. If the wind is truly in the party's sails, perhaps they could get 5 percent of the vote this time.
Compared to other political parties in the province, the Greens have a relatively new history in this province. The forerunner of the Green Party of Saskatchewan was the New Green Alliance, founded on Earth day in Regina in 1998. The founders of the party had been meeting for some time; many of the individuals were former New Democrats who had grown extremely disenchanted with the Romanow Government. 1998 was in the middle of the Romanow Government's second term, and the unhappiness among left-wing political activists with the NDP had reached a boil. The first election run for the NGA was not that impressive - they fielded 16 candidates but won 1 percent of the vote. In 2003 the Greens fielded 27 candidates but only got 0.5% of the vote. In 2007 the rechristened Green Party of Saskatchewan ran 48 out of 58 candidates and managed to secure 2 percent of the vote.
The party was going nowhere for the first few years of its existence. That all appeared to change with the arrival of Sandra Finley in the party's leadership. Finley became leader in 2006 and started a major organizational drive within the party that resulted in a near full slate of candidates for the party. Finley left the leadership to face a court challenge regarding the Canadian census. Finley refused to fill out the long-form census in 2006 - she ended up being convicted but served no jail time.
There are signs that the organizational push from 2007 has grown within the Green Party. The party is currently about 15 candidates short of a full slate, and actual nomination meetings were held to install several of the candidates. In the past all Green candidates were simply appointed due to a lack of on-the-ground organization for the Greens. And according to Facebook some of the Regina candidates are holding fundraising events in lead up to the election. No such events were held in the past. So for the first time, the Green Party of Saskatchewan is starting to take the form of a bonafide political party and not a small rabble of fringe protestors.
It also appears that by the time voters cast their ballots on November 7, the Saskatchewan Greens may become the province's new third party based on total ballots cast. As mentioned before the party could end up running a full slate of candidates this time, with many of the candidates running actually on-the-ground campaigns and not merely being parachute candidates. It was also revealed last week that the Saskatchewan Liberals only plan to run about 15 candidates this fall. Thus the Greens have an opportunity to move up the province's political food chain, at least in rankings.
However, many significant obstacles stand in the party's way. The Greens lack a strong media presence; they appear in the news sporadically, and usually focus on issues of narrow or marginal importance like opposition to nuclear energy. The party's constitution is also flawed in that it contains provision for the annual election of a new leader. Thus it has been very difficult for any of the party's leaders to establish a presence or make any real progress in building the party. Until recently the Greens lacked individuals with organizational drive and fundraising experience. And the collective wisdom of the party's decision makers is at best befuddled and at worst incompetent, given the recent decision to allow Brendan Cross to become a prospective candidate for the party in Regina Rosemont.
With the enormous unpopularity of Dwain Lingenfelter and the Saskatchewan NDP heading into this election, the Greens could make some substantial gains in this election. However to fully capitalize on the situation the Greens will need to run a full slate of candidates, and the party's decision makers need to learn how non-members perceive their party and the decisions they make. If the wind is truly in the party's sails, perhaps they could get 5 percent of the vote this time.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
As a nation, we did good
It began with not entirely unexpected, but shocking nonetheless, news. The Honourable Jack Layton had died. And so began a week in which Canadians coast to coast to coast – without distinction or boundary or disagreement – walked the talk.
It was the week when people from every stripe and bent, colour and creed, religion and spiritual bias, and every other difference that separates us, come together to walk the talk about what we preach it is to be a Canadian. Everything we fight for and against, was included, respected, celebrated and honoured.
We as Canadians often talk about being inclusive, compassionate and caring, but for a few days at the tail end of the lazy days of summer 2011, we actually were. Sure there were a few exceptions, but swiftly and convincingly, those exceptions were muted. This was not the time. And so for a brief moment we as a nation embraced and celebrated the very best of who we claim to be.
Sure, there was the distinct group cringe from many when Stephen Lewis used the word manifesto in his eulogy – it is fair to say that Jack got a well-deserved last laugh on that one - but even those ‘fighting words’ couldn’t dampen the spirit of the moment. Prime ministers and premiers – leaders and the so-called ‘regular folk’ alike – applauded, cried, laughed, mourned and danced. Yes, danced.
As Canadians we can and should be proud: we did a good job of honouring and celebrating someone who - regardless of whether we agreed with his politics - showed us all that being involved in things outside ourselves can and does make a difference.
Of course, life has already moved on. And soon, the business of politics and taking sides will return. But, for a moment in time, we experienced that it is indeed possible to ‘do Canadian’ better than we have in the recent past. May we mark this past week as the one in which the lesson was learned.
We did good.
As a postscript... To all the supporters, friends and family of Jack Layton, please know that so many share Prime Minister Harper’s sentiment - we do hope and pray this week of remembrance and celebration has indeed been a great comfort to you.
It was the week when people from every stripe and bent, colour and creed, religion and spiritual bias, and every other difference that separates us, come together to walk the talk about what we preach it is to be a Canadian. Everything we fight for and against, was included, respected, celebrated and honoured.
We as Canadians often talk about being inclusive, compassionate and caring, but for a few days at the tail end of the lazy days of summer 2011, we actually were. Sure there were a few exceptions, but swiftly and convincingly, those exceptions were muted. This was not the time. And so for a brief moment we as a nation embraced and celebrated the very best of who we claim to be.
Sure, there was the distinct group cringe from many when Stephen Lewis used the word manifesto in his eulogy – it is fair to say that Jack got a well-deserved last laugh on that one - but even those ‘fighting words’ couldn’t dampen the spirit of the moment. Prime ministers and premiers – leaders and the so-called ‘regular folk’ alike – applauded, cried, laughed, mourned and danced. Yes, danced.
As Canadians we can and should be proud: we did a good job of honouring and celebrating someone who - regardless of whether we agreed with his politics - showed us all that being involved in things outside ourselves can and does make a difference.
Of course, life has already moved on. And soon, the business of politics and taking sides will return. But, for a moment in time, we experienced that it is indeed possible to ‘do Canadian’ better than we have in the recent past. May we mark this past week as the one in which the lesson was learned.
We did good.
As a postscript... To all the supporters, friends and family of Jack Layton, please know that so many share Prime Minister Harper’s sentiment - we do hope and pray this week of remembrance and celebration has indeed been a great comfort to you.
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