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Sunday, November 6, 2011

Constituency Profile: Regina Dewdney

Regina Dewdney constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on Regina Dewdney, please click here.

The Regina Dewdney constituency is one of the most fascinating ridings in Regina. Although it has only been on the political map since 1991, it is a seat that is gaining more and more profile with each passing election.

The first MLA for Regina Dewdney was Ed Tchorzewski, a heavyweight in the Saskatchewan NDP. Ed was the MLA for Regina North East from 1985 to 1991, but moved into the new riding when it opened up. Before that he was the MLA for Humboldt from 1971 to 1982. In his 1991 win, Tchorzewski captured 69 percent of the vote. Tchorzewski held several portfolios in the Blakeney and Romanow Governments; the pinnacle of his career was as Minister of Finance, not once but twice. "Torch" was the last Finance Minister in the Blakeney Government, and the first Finance Minister in the Romanow Government. Tchorzewski was re-elected in 1995 with 69 perent of the vote, then quit provincial politics in 1999 and became President of the federal NDP.

In the June 1999 by-election held in Regina Dewdney, he was replaced by fellow New Democrat Kevin Yates. Yates was Chief Negotiator for SGEU before the by-election win. Yates turned back a strong challenge from the Liberals by winning with 48 percent of the vote. In a rematch later in the 1999 provincial election, Yates won again with 47 percent of the vote. Since that time, Yates turned back a strong challenge in 2003 by beating former Saskatchewan Roughrider and Separate School Trustee Rob Bresciani of the Saskatcheawn Party, winning 55 percent of the vote compared to 28 percent for the Sask Party. In 2007, the Sask Party came within 500 votes of beating Yates; the SP got 40 percent of the vote, compared to 45 percent for Yates.

Yates was Minister of Corrections and Public Safety in the NDP Government and later Minister of Community Services. Kevin played a significant role in helping decide the outcome of the last 2 Saskatchewan NDP leadership contests with his sale of memberships for the winning candidate. Yates is always underestimated and should never be dismissed outright. That said, Yates faces a significant challenge this time from another Saskatchewan Roughrider, this time Gene Makowsky, again for the Saskatchewan Party. The Sask Party has made a very big deal about running Makowsky in Regina Dewdney, so the stakes are high here for both parties.

What is very different in Regina Dewdney this time compared to 2007, is the collapse of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party. In 2007, Shaine Peters got 13 percent of the vote, or 1,083 votes. While Regina Dewdney is the only Regina constituency with a Liberal candidate this time, the candidate is in name only; there is no Liberal campaign in the seat. Therefore the Liberal vote is in play. As in most other seats across the province, I expect most of the Liberal vote will end up in the Sask Party column this time in Regina Dewdney, and that would be the case regardless of whether Makowsky was the Sask Party candidate or not. Yates has to hope that most of the Liberal vote stays home this time, or else he will be in trouble. Most pundits predict Makowsky will win Regina Dewdney on November 7, and I also fall into that camp. The collapse of the Liberals and the strong momentum behind the Sask Party has created an electoral tsunami that will wash away most of the NDP MLAs, and unfortunately for Yates, barring a miracle, he falls in this category.

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