We here at SaskPolitics1 expect that the 2011 provincial election campaign will begin in earnest after Labour Day on September 5. While the election writ won't be dropped until the end of September, you can be sure that full electioneering will commence after that long weekend. Therefore Sask Politics 1 is going to write a short series of articles to 'prime the pump' or set the stage for the upcoming election.
For those of you who are newcomers to Saskatchewan politics, there are really only 2 (maybe 3 depending on your interpretation) eras in Saskatchewan politics since the province was founded in 1905.The first era lasted from 1905 to 1944 and was marked by the Saskatchewan Liberal dynasty. Except for the Conservative minority government produced in 1929, the Liberals governed Saskatchewan during this entire period. The Liberals actually won the largest number of seats in the 1929 election, but the Conservatives overthrew this government in a non-confidence motion and governed for the next 5 years in a coalition with Progressives and independents. Thus the Saskatchewan Liberal Party won every election in this period - 1905, 1908, 1912, 1917, 1921, 1925, 1929, 1934 and 1938. This political era ended with the onset of the Great Depression. The trauma experienced by Saskatchewan people during that terrible time caused a fundamental realignment of voting patterns.
The second era of Saskatchewan history began in 1944 and remains to the present day, thus far. 1944 marked the rise of the Saskatchewan CCF party to power. The CCF governed until 1964, then changed its name to the New Democratic Party, and has since governed the province from 1971 to 1982 and from 1991 to 2007. This political era has thus been dominated by the CCF/NDP, and is marked by a curious pattern. The pattern goes something like this; the CCF/NDP govern for a minimum of 3 back to back terms - Tommy Douglas had 5 terms, Allan Blakeney 3, and between them Roy Romanow and Lorne Calvert got 4. The CCF/NDP are then replaced by a free enterprise anti-NDP party for a maximum of 2 back to back terms - the Ross Thatcher Liberals governed from 1964 to 1971, the Grant Devine Progressive Conservatives ruled from 1982 to 1991, and the Brad Wall Saskatchewan Party has been in power since 2007.
What all of this means is that according to the pattern of current Saskatchewan politics, Brad Wall and the Sask Party are on track to win a second majority government on November 7, 2011. This coming election then will set the stage for the truly interesting provincial election in 2015. If the Saskatchewan Party can win a 3rd term in 2015, then the pattern of politics that emerged from the Great Depression will be over. But if the Saskatchewan NDP can make a comeback and win power in 2015, then the current pattern of Saskatchewan politics will be renewed, and its business as usual. Perhaps the results this November 7 will give us a clear indication of the shape of things to come in 2015.
For those of you who are newcomers to Saskatchewan politics, there are really only 2 (maybe 3 depending on your interpretation) eras in Saskatchewan politics since the province was founded in 1905.The first era lasted from 1905 to 1944 and was marked by the Saskatchewan Liberal dynasty. Except for the Conservative minority government produced in 1929, the Liberals governed Saskatchewan during this entire period. The Liberals actually won the largest number of seats in the 1929 election, but the Conservatives overthrew this government in a non-confidence motion and governed for the next 5 years in a coalition with Progressives and independents. Thus the Saskatchewan Liberal Party won every election in this period - 1905, 1908, 1912, 1917, 1921, 1925, 1929, 1934 and 1938. This political era ended with the onset of the Great Depression. The trauma experienced by Saskatchewan people during that terrible time caused a fundamental realignment of voting patterns.
The second era of Saskatchewan history began in 1944 and remains to the present day, thus far. 1944 marked the rise of the Saskatchewan CCF party to power. The CCF governed until 1964, then changed its name to the New Democratic Party, and has since governed the province from 1971 to 1982 and from 1991 to 2007. This political era has thus been dominated by the CCF/NDP, and is marked by a curious pattern. The pattern goes something like this; the CCF/NDP govern for a minimum of 3 back to back terms - Tommy Douglas had 5 terms, Allan Blakeney 3, and between them Roy Romanow and Lorne Calvert got 4. The CCF/NDP are then replaced by a free enterprise anti-NDP party for a maximum of 2 back to back terms - the Ross Thatcher Liberals governed from 1964 to 1971, the Grant Devine Progressive Conservatives ruled from 1982 to 1991, and the Brad Wall Saskatchewan Party has been in power since 2007.
What all of this means is that according to the pattern of current Saskatchewan politics, Brad Wall and the Sask Party are on track to win a second majority government on November 7, 2011. This coming election then will set the stage for the truly interesting provincial election in 2015. If the Saskatchewan Party can win a 3rd term in 2015, then the pattern of politics that emerged from the Great Depression will be over. But if the Saskatchewan NDP can make a comeback and win power in 2015, then the current pattern of Saskatchewan politics will be renewed, and its business as usual. Perhaps the results this November 7 will give us a clear indication of the shape of things to come in 2015.
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