Priming the Pump for November 7, Part 3 - the Saskatchewan NDP

This is the latest installment of a short series that 'primes the pump' for you leading up to the provincial election campaign in Saskatchewan this November 7. The campaign will get underway right after Labour Day, so there is an opportunity now to lay the groundwork for the election coverage here. Today's installment looks at the Official Opposition party, the Saskatchewan NDP.

Most people in the province regard the Saskatchewan NDP and its forerunner the Saskatchewan CCF to be the 'natural governing party' of Saskatchewan. At least that has been the case since 1944, when Tommy Douglas lead the Saskatchewan CCF to power in a landslide election win. The CCF under Douglas would go on to roll up wins in 1948, 1952, 1956 and 1960 before being defeated in 1964. The CCF used those 20 years in power to entrench their political base through building up the provincial civil service and the creation of and expansion of existing Crown Corporations, dozens and dozens of them. Today almost 100 Crown Corporations are the legacy of the Douglas Government in this province. Most of the Crowns are not as well known as the commercial entities of SaskTel, SaskPower, SaskEnergy, SGI and STC. Not all of the Crowns were founded by the CCF, but all of them certainly became mature entities during the Douglas Administration.

The CCF came back to power in Saskatchewan in 1971 as the New Democratic Party, led by Allan Blakeney. It was a time when the NDP voting base was further entrenched when thousands of 'baby boomers' were given employment in various sectors of government and the Crowns. It marked the last time the NDP would make a targeted effort to entrench its voting base provincially in Saskatchewan, on such a large scale.

The return of the Saskatchewan NDP to power in 1991 under Roy Romanow marked a turning point in the history of the party. Romanow had been Blakeney's Deputy Premier, and was acclaimed as party leader in 1987.  Romanow's acclamation had the unintended result of delaying the renewal of the party and opening the NDP to the 'baby bust' generation born from 1966 to 1980. The Romanow Government's historic effort to eliminate the horrendous budget deficit from the Devine era and then ongoing efforts to bring the $16-billion debt under control further eroded the party's ability to recruit in the province. By 1995 the government's majority had been whittled away in rural Saskatchewan, and by 1999 the NDP presence in the rural seats was all but gone. The Romanow Government, being pre-occupied with controlling the province's finances, didn't come to grips with the transformation of the family farm into the corporate farm, and the result was the alienation of rural voters from the NDP. In the 12 years since the New Democrats first lost their rural voting base, there has been no sign that rural voters plan on returning to the NDP anytime soon.

1999 was another turning point for the Saskatchewan NDP. Not only did the rural base of the party disappear, but so did the Romanow Government's majority of seats in the Legislature. Left with just 29 seats after the September 16th election, the NDP entered a coalition government with the Saskatchewan Liberal Party's 3 remaining MLAs. While the NDP thought themselves clever at the time and were able to continue in power, the Coalition Government in hindsight has proven to be disaster for both the New Democrats and the Liberals. The Liberals have been destroyed as a result of that government and their political fortunes have now completely collapsed. The slow-motion train wreck that became the Saskatchewan Liberals as a result of that coalition government has created a situation where the NDP cannot now climb back into government. Under Lorne Calvert, the NDP were able to form a thin majority government in 2003, but that government proved to be aimless and without direction. Voters put the New Democrats out of government finally by 2007, and since then the party's fortunes have declined further.

Dwain Lingenfelter, a former high ranking cabinet minister from the Romanow Government, returned to Saskatchewan in 2009 after spending 9 years as an oil executive in Calgary. 'Link' won the Saskatchewan NDP leadership after an intense battle with 3 rivals and a scandal involving the sale of NDP memberships in the Meadow Lake area. Lingenfelter thus began his leadership under a dark cloud and without momentum. 'Link' had always prided himself on being a politician who lacked definition, but this came back to haunt him early in his leadership when the Sask Party bought ads that defined 'Link' as an angry, warped old man who is frustrated and out of touch with Saskatchewan people. The ads worked. Lingenfelter is now the most unpopular leader in the history of the Saskatchewan NDP, and his party is polling almost 30 percentage points behind the Sask Party. Lingenfelter also polls as enormously unpopular at a time with Premier Brad Wall is very very popular.

The public opinion polling done of the provincial parties also shows the collapse of the Saskatchewan Liberals to under 5 percent provincewide. All of the previous support that the Liberals had received in the past has made its way to the Saskatchewan Party, as evidenced by the growing base of support for the Saskatchewan Party from 1999 onward. The New Democrats now head into the fall election facing an impossible situation - fighting a popular Saskatchewan Party government that commands the entire free enterprise voting base. Just doing the math of adding Liberal and Sask Party support together from 2007 across the 58 seats in the Legislature shows that on November 7, the NDP stand to lose a minimum of 6 seats. But this is a conservative estimate since it doesn't take into account new voters who are voting for the first time or whom are from outside of the province. Thus the 2011 provincial election is a massive salvage operation for the NDP. The party is faced with the grim task of trying to salvage as many of its 20 seats in the Legislature as possible. With the adding of the 2007 Liberal vote to that of the Sask Party this fall, it will be virtually impossible for the New Democrats to pick up any new seats, except for perhaps Meadow Lake along the 'forest fringe'.

The prospect of a severely reduced NDP caucus will have immediate consequences for the post-election era. It is doubtful that Lingenfelter will be able or even willing to remain as Party Leader after November 7. New Democrats will then be plunged into their 3rd leadership race in the past decade. There is no shortage of potential leadership candidates for that contest, but the real question is if any of Link's successors will be capable of rebuilding the party. The New Democrats face many challenges in the years ahead, including an aging voting base, a caucus dominated by older MLAs and former Cabinet Ministers, and party desperately in need of a new vision for voters. However, there is some good news for the NDP. Lingenfelter has enjoyed some success in restoring the party's almost mythical ground organization in many seats across the province, as evidenced by having most of the party's candidates nominated before this summer. The New Democrats will also be able to draw on their rich tradition in the dark days ahead - stories of their fabled political past will be of some comfort to them as they fight for their political lives this time. And if the free enterprise voting base goes into disarray again after 2011 (which is entirely possible), then a window of opportunity may yet emerge for the Saskatchewan NDP to return to power in 2015 and thus maintain their domination over Saskatchewan politics.

But in the short term, the Saskatchewan NDP face a daunting chore this fall. It will not be happy task for the party to decide which of its 20 MLAs can be salvaged, and who will have to be thrown under the bus to save the others. To borrow a quote from Winston Churchill, November 7, 2011 may prove to be the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party's 'finest hour'.