Saskatchewan's new November election tradition

With the rise of fixed provincial election dates in Saskatchewan, our province now has a new political tradition of November election dates. This is a fairly recent development; the previous two provincial elections in 2003 and 2007 happened in November. And as we all know, this year's election will be held on November 7.

There used to be a strong tradition of holding provincial elections in Saskatchewan in the month of June. The first June election in Saskatchewan was in 1917. This was followed by June provincial elections in 1921, 1925, 1929, 1934, 1938, 1944, 1948, 1952, 1956 and 1960. But since 1960 June elections have become a more rare event, with the only June elections in the past 50 years being in 1971, 1975 and 1995.

The reasoning for June elections in Saskatchewan was fairly straightforward - the weather was guaranteed to be reasonable for voter turnout, and it is a time of year when optimism usually runs fairly high. In analyzing the outcomes of June elections in Saskatchewan, the incumbent government has always been re-elected with two major exceptions - 1944 and 1971. In those elections the opposition NDP rode a wave of voter discontent to power over incumbent Liberal governments.

Now we are into a period in Saskatchewan political history where November elections are going to be the norm. So what is the rational for November election dates? It can't be based on weather - any election date beyond October 1 always runs the risk of running into the onset of winter. Winter weather likely drives down voter turnout. Therefore the inclination toward November elections probably has something more to do with voter psychology. Just think about it - November can be a cold, windy month. Often there is snow on the ground, but even if there is no snow yet in November, the landscape across the province is barren after harvest and non-evergreen trees have shed their leaves. Thus it is a time of year when voters are less likely to want to vote for change - and therefore would be more inclined to re-elect the incumbent government. In plan English, November is not a time when Saskatchewan voters are conditioned to vote for change.

However, voters in 2007 did opt for change, from Lorne Calvert and the NDP to Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan Party. However, the Sask Party did not run the typical negative campaign that one would expect of an opposition party. In the 2007 election, Wall and the Sask Party went out of their way to say this was going to be a positive change, where hope beats fear. That message resonated with voters and helped push the Saskatchewan Party over the top in some close urban battles.