What is the new bellwether constituency in Saskatchewan politics?

A bellwether constituency has the unique quality of almost always ending up on the government side of the Legislature in a provincial election. From 1912 until 1999 the traditional bellwether constituency in Saskatchewan provincial politics was the Last Mountain-Touchwood seat. This constituency elected government MLAs in the overwhelming number of provincial elections during this period, with the noted exceptions of 1908, 1929 and 1938. In 1908 Thomas Anderson was elected as the MLA for Last Mountain for the Provincial Rights party, and Jake Benson of Semans won this seat as a Progressive in 1929 and for the CCF in 1938.

However the bellwether tradition in Last Mountain-Touchwood abruptly ended in recent times. Glen Hart was elected in 1999 and re-elected in 2003 for the opposition Saskatchewan Party. So the question should be posed - is there a new bellwether constituency in Saskatchewan politics? The answer to that question is a cautious and preliminary yes.

After a careful analysis of Saskatchewan's current 58 constituencies, it appears there is a worthy candidate for being the new bellwether riding in Saskatchewan politics. That constituency is none other than Regina Wascana Plains, whose current MLA is Christine Tell with the Saskatchewan Party. Tell won this seat for the Saskatchewan Party in 2007, and as the Sask Party looks certain to win a second term this fall, the word on the ground is that Tell is a safe bet to be re-elected in Regina Wascana Plains.

But this constituency bears somewhat closer scrutiny, just to make sure it cuts the bellwether mustard. The riding now called Regina Wascana Plains first came into being in 1967 and was won at that time by Henry Baker, the long-time Mayor of Regina. Baker was a CCF candidate and the election was won by the Liberals. Baker was re-elected in 1971 as an NDP candidate and the election was won by Allan Blakeney and the NDP. In 1975 the seat was changed to Regina Wascana and it was won by Tony Merchant of the Liberals, though the Blakeney Government was re-elected. But in 1978 Clinton White of the NDP won this seat, and in every provincial election since 1978, the constituency has consistently been on the government side of the Legislature. In 1982 Gord Currie of the Tories won this seat, followed by PC candidate Beattie Martin in 1986, and Doreen Hamilton of the NDP in 1991, 1995, 1999 and 2003.