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This is the last installment of the 58 constituency profiles for the November 7, 2011 provincial election in Saskatchewan. All of the profiles can be found by searching the archives of this blog.
I saved the most closely watched race of the 2011 election campaign for last. Yes, it is Regiana Douglas Park, named after famous CCF Premier Tommy Douglas. For decades, this seat has been a CCF/NDP stronghold, a seat the New Democrat have come to take for granted. The dynamics of this election campaign have thrown that certainty into doubt.
At the very least, Regina Douglas Park is in play this time, which is remarkable when you consider this is the seat of Dwain Lingenfelter, Leader of the Official Opposition, and Leader of the New Democratic Party of Saskatchewan. But its true. There is intense speculation about whether 'Link" will win here again on November 7th.
A bit of history is required here first, to put the current race into context. This seat was created in 1975 and was originally called Regina Victoria. The MLA was Regina Mayor Henry Baker, a New Democrat. Baker won comfortably here in 1975 and 1978, but was taken by surprise and defeated in 1982 by Metro Rybchuk. Rybchuk and his family have the exclusive franchise to cater all events held at the St. Mary's Parish Centre. Rybchuk was the MLA for one term, then the NDP took back this seat in 1986 when city councillor Harry Van Mulligen won. Harry won here with enormous margins again in 1991, 1995 and 1999. In 1998, Van Mulligen joined the Romanow Cabinet as Minister of Social Services, and later became Minster of Finance in the Calvert Government. In 2003 this constituency was renamed Regina Douglas Park, and Harry won here again with 57 percent of the vote, and an impressive 5,136 votes. Van Mulligen ran again in 2007 and won this time with 51 percent of the vote. In 2009, Harry stepped aside so Lingenfelter could have a seat in the Legislature. When the Septembert 2009 by-election came, Lingenfelter won, but it was not the steamroller victory that the New Democrats were used to. 'Link' won with 50 percent of the vote, Kathleen Peterson of the Sask Party got 43 percent, and Victor Lau with the Green Party won about 8 percent. There was no Liberal candidate in the by-election (which became a sign of things to come in this election).
Lau is back to face Lingenfelter again in tomorrow's vote,and this time he is the new Leader of the Green Party. The Sask Party nominated Russ Marchuk, a former teacher, principal and school trustee. Marchuk was nominated by the Sask Party in May 2010 and has been compaigning here ever since. Lau is not in a position to win the seat outright, but his party has done well in this provincial election,and he may make gains in tomorrow's vote. While Green parties are noted for drawing votes from across the political spectrum, parties like the NDP seem to be most impacted by this. This is not really good news for Lingenfelter, who is fighting for his political life in this election. 'Link' can't afford to lose ground to both Marchuk and Lau. Without a Liberal candidate in this race, as was the case in 2009, there is also no chance to blunt growth for the Saskatchewan Party or the Greens in this seat. Thus the race in Regina Douglas Park is one of high stakes for Lingenfelter; it will be a winner-take-all affair.
My only prediction about the contest in Regina Douglas Park, is that the eyes of the province will be upon this seat tomorrow night. The safe bet is to say Lingenfelter will win this seat again, but this is not an ordinary election. The Sask Party is polling at over 66 percent across the province, and Lingenfelter himself may be the most hated man in Saskatchewan political history, thanks to a two-year negative ad campaign against him from the Sask Party. Will the voters of Regina Douglas Park save Lingenfelter, or will they finish off his political career once and for all with a defeat? Inquiring minds want to know. Regardless of its outcome, the results from Regina Douglas Park will keep us all spellbound tomorrow, one way or another.
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