For more information on Saskatoon Meewasin, please click here.
This constituency was forged out of the old Saskatoon River Heights constituency in 1995 and before that it was called Saskatoon Mayfair. The Saskatchewan NDP have had a very good electoral history in this seat, in no small part because of the favourable split in the anti-NDP vote.
The modern electoral history of this seat begins in the 1991 "Monday Night Massacre Part 2" election when the Saskatchewan NDP win 55 out of 66 seats under the leadership of Roy Romanow. The winning MLA in Saskatoon River Heights was Carol Teichrob, a New Democrat, farmer, and Reeve and Councillor for the RM of Corman Park. Teichrob amassed over 4,900 votes, compared to over 3,500 hundred for former PC cabinet minister Ray Meiklejohn, and over 2,900 for Liberal candidate Ed Monuik. Teichrob was ushered into Romanow's 'war cabinet' of 11 cabinet ministers right away and became Minister of Education. Teichrob was comfortably re-elected in Saskatoon Meewasin in 1995 and became Minister of Municipal Government.
Two terms were enough for Teichrob, and she didn't run again in 1999. Instead Carol passed the torch to fellow New Democrat Carolyn Jones won with 44 percent of the vote, compard with 35 percent for the Saskatchewan Party, 16 percent for the Liberals and 4 percent for the fledgling New Green Alliance. Jones was MLA for just one term and did not seek re-election in 2003. Saskatchewan Liberal Leader David Karwacki decided to run in Saskatoon Meewasin in 2003. Karwacki ended up being challenged by Saskatoon lawyer Frank Quennell. 2003 turned out to be part one of a two-part, three-wey battle between Quennell, Karwacki and the Saskatchewan Party for control of that seat. Quennell ended up keeping the seat for the NDP with 40 percent of the vote, compared with 33 percent for Karwacki and 26 percent for Shelley Hengen of the Saskatchewan Party. It was the election where the Liberals were shut out of the Legislature after sharing two years in a diastrous coalition government with the NDP. Quennell was named Justice Minister in the Calvert Government,a nd in 2007 he went on to be re-elected in Saskatoon Meewasin. The 2007 results were more of a cliffhanger; Quennell won with 35 percent of the vote, Roger Parent of the Saskatchewan Party finished second with 32 percent, and Karwacki finished a dismal third with 30 percent. These results had the effect of pushing the the Saskatchewan Liberal Party over the cliff into the abyss, especially since Karwacki had campaigned for the past two elections on a left-wing platform, which aliented his right-wing voting base.
Quennell is running for re-election tomorrow. Parent is back as the Saskatchewan Party candidate. the Liberals are running a token candidate in the seat. Tobi-Dawne Smith rounds out the slate as the Green candidate, and is currently President of the Green Party. It's expected most if not all of the support that Karwacki got in 2007 will disappear. While Quennell is likely to pick up some of that support since it originally came from the NDP in the first place (it is very rare in Saskatchewan provincial politics for voters to move between the Liberals and the NDP), a majority of the Liberal vote in this seat will likely migrate to the Saskatchewan Party. This is one of the seats that is almost certain to flip from NDP to Saskatchewan Party this time. Quennell is working hard to be re-elected, but collapse the Saskatchewan Liberal Party will deal him a cruel hand tomorrow. It is ironic that Quennell's defeat of Karwacki in 2003 and 2007 set off a dynamic that will cause his electoral defeat in the very same constituency.
No comments:
Post a Comment