2011 Saskatchewan provincial election reaction and analysis: I told you so, Part 2

Wow, what a night! Where to begin? At the beginning, of course.

Saskatchewan Party

Again, I extend my heartiest congratulations to the Saskatchewan Party, on a job well done. They accomplished what they set out to do, and that was the annihilation of their NDP opposition. The Sask Party gained 11 seats for a total of 49. The Sask Party now has more urban seats than does the NDP, including both seats in Moose Jaw and in Prince Albert, 8 out of 12 in Saskatoon, and 8 out of 11 in Regina.

There are two satisfying victories from the night that Premier Wall must be savouring - Regina Douglas Park and The Battlefords. The Sask Party invested a great deal of time and money in ensuring that Dwain Lingenfelter would never have the opportunity to use his dirty bag of political tricks on them. The Sask Party effectively neutralized 'Link' as an opponent by running TV ads against him for the past 2 years. They knew that if they gave Lingenfelter even the smallest opening, that he would be able to exploit it and damage them. In that regard the Sask Party plan was executed perfectly, and as a bonus they knocked Lingenfelter right out of the Legislature. It became obvious that 'Link' was in trouble in his own riding about halfway through the election campaign. At the start of the writ period, Regina South NDP candidate Yens Pedersen had large billboard signs up across his riding, including one on Kramer Boulevard across from the University of Regina. But two weeks ago Saturday, all of those signs were removed and replaced with giant Lingenfelter lawn signs. I took that as a sign that the NDP central campaign had determined that Sask Party candidate Bill Hutchinson was too far ahead in Regina South for Pedersen to catch, and that precious NDP resources were needed more urgently to hold the line where Lingenfelter was running. The victory in The Battlefords destroys the potential for a free enterprise alternative to the Sask Party to occur at any time in the near future.

This is the biggest election win in Saskatchewan history - it even surpasses the great 1912 election win by the Sask Liberals when Premier Walter Scott won almost 57 percent of the vote and 45 of 53 seats in the Legislature. Premier Brad Wall now sits on a mountain on political capital. Not only is he the most popular politician in the province since the days of Tommy Douglas, but he now has a landslide government at his disposal. With over 64 percent of the vote, he has a mandate to do as he pleases.

The big question then becomes, what will Premier Wall do with his landslide government? Will he continue with the strategy of the first term and continue moving to the left, or will he finally use this opportunity to start bringing free enterprise government to our province? Expectations of our Premier are now very high, given the economic boom and the large mandate just awarded to the Saskatchewan Party. My instincts tell me that Premier Wall has from now until the next provincial budget in March 2012 to send the people of this province a clear signal about the future direction of his government, one way or the other. I can't imagine the Premier would sit on all of this capital and not do anything with it.

But in any case, the Sask Party has lots of breathing room. It has no competition for voters on the right (for the time being) and the Wall Government can look forward to a rosy economic picture for the foreseeable future. We should be looking for some of the new MLAs to be added to cabinet. Kevin Doherty and Kevin Phillips, the new MLAs for Regina Northeast and Melfort respectively, seem like sure bets for cabinet positions.

All of the predictions that the NDP would win Meadow Lake were not even close. Even my prediction that Jeremy Harrison would win by 500 to 1000 votes was way off. Harrison clobbered the NDP in his seat by over 1,600 votes. There was also some speculation that Bill Hutchinson was in trouble in Regina South, but I knew that was not the case. Hutchinson ended up growing his margin of victory over NDP candidate Yens Pedersen to 944 votes from 255. Two things fed the explosion of the Sask Party vote from 50% provincewide to over 64% - the high popularity of Premier Wall, and the total collapse of the Sask Liberal Party. I was also told the NDP would hold Regina Northeast, but Kevin Doherty blasted Dwayne Yasinowsky right out of the water.

It has been a great election for the Sask Party. The best part for the Sask Party is that if the Liberals fail to rebuild, and if no other free enterprise party emerges to challenge the Sask Party, then the results of November 7 could be repeated in future provincial elections for the foreseeable future. We could have Sask Party government without end for decades.


Saskatchewan New Democrats

For New Democrats. these election results must be depressing and disheartening. The 'natural governing party' has lost over half of the 20 seats they won in 2007, including their leader Dwain Lingenfelter. 'Link' has resigned in wake of the election results, and soon the attention will shift to electing a new leader for the party. In the past, the Saskatchewan NDP did their best to keep the Liberal and Conservative parties competitive with each other so that they could walk up the middle and win power. But in the past 12 years, the NDP created their own slow motion train wreck instead. The NDP formed a disastrous Coalition Government with the Liberals in 1999. After the Coalition was done, the New Democrats went out of their way to ensure no Liberal MLAs were elected in the 2003 and 2007 elections. Even though the Liberals were positioned on the left for those elections, it was still in the NDP interest to see that at least one Liberal was elected to the Legislature. Instead, many New Democrats I know cheered when the Liberals were shut out in 2003 and 2007. Last night, the chickens came home to roost for the NDP.

To be blunt, New Democrats deserved to watch their party slam into the cinderbrick wall of Saskatchewan politics last night. It would do the NDP good to learn some humility and to reflect on the anger toward their party that washed over half of their MLAs out of office. Hopefully the NDP will learn something useful from this election, instead of becoming more bitter and sanctimonious. Most Saskatchewan people are tired of negativity and mediocrity in our politics. Regardless of how we voted on November 7th, most people want our province's economy to grow and succeed, not fail. The days wallowing in mediocre results for our province are over, and the NDP now have to find a way to operate in this new environment.

The last 12 years have been ones of steady decline for the NDP. They had 42 seats in 1995, 29 in 1999, 30 in 2003, 20 in 2007 and now they are down to 9. One wonders if New Democrats will continue to ignore the generational crisis that is enveloping their party and spurring the gradual decline. This crisis began in 1987 when Roy Romanow was acclaimed as Sask NDP Leader, and the party passed up an opportunity to recruit young people from the 'Baby Bust' generation.

The NDP deserve some credit for waging an issues-based campaign instead of the slimefest they usually conduct. The problem though is that the NDP simply made too many promises, too many expensive promises, and never grasped the marketing end of these promises. The New Democrats would have been better off making fewer promises and putting them into an 'orange book', then promoting the top 2 or 3 items in that orange book.

One encouraging thing for the NDP is that most of their remaining MLAs are young and have something to offer in terms of rebuilding their party. Individuals like Trent Wotherspoon, Warren McCall and Cam Broten are well thought of inside and outside of their party, and they have a lot of talent and skills to offer the people of this province. Perhaps these MLAs will succeed in creating a less arrogant and less sanctimonious NDP. Maybe these MLAs will even manage to modernize their party and move it economically to the centre of the spectrum?

Now that Lingenfelter is gone from the NDP Leadership, New Democrats will have a chance to elect a new leader. This time. the NDP have to show more wisdom in their next choice of leader. Given the disasterous trend in the party's fortunes since 1999, they can't afford another bad choice in leader.

The Greens

Congratulations are in order for Victor Lau and the Green Party of Saskatchewan, the province's new third party. The Greens got over 11,000 votes provincewide, or about 3 percent of the vote. That is an improvement of 66% from the 2 percent they got in 2007. The Greens fielded a full slate of candidates for the first time, and 41 percent of those candidates were women, a provincial record for any party. Lau was thrust into the Green Party leadership on September 6 when Larissa Shasko abruptly quit and went to work on Yens Pedersen's NDP campaign in Regina South. A leadership vote was held on September 25 that reinforced Victor as Leader, but that only gave him and his team 2 weeks to prepare for the dropping of the election writ. But inspite of being behind the eight ball, Lau and his team hammered out a coherent election platform and mobilized a full slate of candidates, most of whom actively campaigned in their local communities. The thing is that if Shasko hadn't quit as Green Leader, its doubtful the Greens would have fielded a full slate of candidates or run the energetic and engaging campaign that they did. Shasko actually did the Greens a favour by resigning.

However, the Greens still have a lot of work to do to be taken more seriously in this province. In order to start climbing in the polls and public consciousness, the Greens are likely going to have to rebrand so they can appeal to a larger portion of the Saskatchewan electorate. A lot of work also needs to be done in terms of recruiting, fundraising and organizing. If the Greens do these things, they could begin to rise as an electoral force in the province. However if the party continues to be treated like a social club, then the Greens will go nowhere. Thus the party is at a crossroads; they had reason to cheer their improved results in this election, but now the Greens are confronted with a challenge and an opportunity at the same time. It will be curious to see if and how the Greens approach this opportunity.

Saskatchewan Liberal Party

The collapse of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party is now complete. The Liberals engaged in a risky and disastrous high-stakes strategy that allowed most of the party to wither and die, and to instead pour all of their resources into The Battlefords constituency where Leader Ryan Bater lives and works.This strategy was never going to work. By deliberately only running 9 candidates, they ensured that there would be minimal media coverage of the party, and that running only a handful of candidates would fuel the perception (and the reality) that the party had not yet hit rock bottom. The fact that the Liberals were hardly in the news from 2007 to 2011 didn't help.


But there are other troubling aspects about the these election results for the Liberals. For all of the talk of pouring all of the party's resources into The Battlefords riding, Bater only managed 12 percent of the vote, or 805 votes. Was any doorknocking done in leadup to this election? It sure doesn't look like it. Then there is the matter of Ralph Goodale and Justin Trudeau. It was always the unwritten rule that no Saskatchewan Liberal Leader should ever campaign or even be seen in public with federal Liberal politicians, yet Bater invited Goodale in to help, and Trudeau was supposed to make an appearance, then ditched at the 11th hour. Bater made a genuine attempt to reposition the Liberals along their traditional right-wing, classical liberal roots in 2009, with new policies and the adoption of the Declaration of Principles of Prairie Liberalism. The provincial Liberal voting base is right-wing, in the libertarian, classical liberal way. But the Declaration just gathered dust and was never promoted or used to recruit new members, and the party still shared the same terrible red and white colours and name as the federal party. These election results confirm what people tried to tell Bater over the past 4 years to no avail, that the Liberal brand is dead in Saskatchewan, deader than a doornail. No serious rebuilding of the party happened after the 2007 election. Instead party members who were not from Saskatoon lost interest when they saw the party wasn't going to recover, and moved on. The nails were really driven into the Liberal coffin in September 2009, when only one of the two by-elections was contested, and no effort was put into winning either seat.

In order for the party to move ahead from now on, the party's name will have to be changed, and a new colour scheme will have to be adopted. Otherwise the party is simply dead. There isn't much of a future for the Saskatchewan Liberal Party in wake of these election results, not unless a serious rebranding is done soon.

I may have more analysis in the days ahead. That's it for now.

Election night reaction to the results

Well friends, there isn't much about tonight's election results that is very surprising. If you've paid attention to anything that I've been saying for the past 3 and a half years, then you'll know that I predicted the results of thsi evening for a long time now. I predicted that with the demise and disappearance of the Sask Liberal Party, it would create an electoral tsunami that swept away most of the 20 New Democrat MLAs elected in 1997. I may have been a little off on numbers (I predicted zero to 7 for the NDP), but in the greater scheme of things, I turned out to be very close to the high range of that scale.

First of all congratulation to Premier Wall and other 48 members of his caucus - well done. They worked hard for this result, and to the victors go the spoils. Also, congratulations to the 9 New Democrats who managed to find someone solid to lash themselves too when they saw the tsunami coming. To everyone else in all of the parties who were defeated tonight, I hope you can find some comfort in your loss, I mean that.

I'll be back tomorrow with a full analysis of the election results, and the implication of these numbers.

Here are the 2011 Saskatchewan provincial election results

Here are the elections results, courtesy of Elections Saskatchewan

Election day is here

The polls are open across Saskatchewan today from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. I'll have final results posted on here, an analysis of the results, followed by a post-mortem.

Constituency Profile: Regina Douglas Park

Regina Douglas Park constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on Regina Douglas Park, please click here.

This is the last installment of the 58 constituency profiles for the November 7, 2011 provincial election in Saskatchewan. All of the profiles can be found by searching the archives of this blog.

I saved the most closely watched race of the 2011 election campaign for last. Yes, it is Regiana Douglas Park, named after famous CCF Premier Tommy Douglas. For decades, this seat has been a CCF/NDP stronghold, a seat the New Democrat have come to take for granted. The dynamics of this election campaign have thrown that certainty into doubt.

At the very least, Regina Douglas Park is in play this time, which is remarkable when you consider this is the seat of Dwain Lingenfelter, Leader of the Official Opposition, and Leader of the New Democratic Party of Saskatchewan. But its true. There is intense speculation about whether 'Link" will win here again on November 7th.

A bit of history is required here first, to put the current race into context. This seat was created in 1975 and was originally called Regina Victoria. The MLA was Regina Mayor Henry Baker, a New Democrat. Baker won comfortably here in 1975 and 1978, but was taken by surprise and defeated in 1982 by Metro Rybchuk. Rybchuk and his family have the exclusive franchise to cater all events held at the St. Mary's Parish Centre. Rybchuk was the MLA for one term, then the NDP took back this seat in 1986 when city councillor Harry Van Mulligen won. Harry won here with enormous margins again in 1991, 1995 and 1999. In 1998, Van Mulligen joined the Romanow Cabinet as Minister of Social Services, and later became Minster of Finance in the Calvert Government. In 2003 this constituency was renamed Regina Douglas Park, and Harry won here again with 57 percent of the vote, and an impressive 5,136 votes. Van Mulligen ran again in 2007 and won this time with 51 percent of the vote. In 2009, Harry stepped aside so Lingenfelter could have a seat in the Legislature. When the Septembert 2009 by-election came, Lingenfelter won, but it was not the steamroller victory that the New Democrats were used to. 'Link' won with 50 percent of the vote, Kathleen Peterson of the Sask Party got 43 percent, and Victor Lau with the Green Party won about 8 percent. There was no Liberal candidate in the by-election (which became a sign of things to come in this election).

Lau is back to face Lingenfelter again in tomorrow's vote,and this time he is the new Leader of the Green Party. The Sask Party nominated Russ Marchuk, a former teacher, principal and school trustee. Marchuk was nominated by the Sask Party in May 2010 and has been compaigning here ever since. Lau is not in a position to win the seat outright, but his party has done well in this provincial election,and he may make gains in tomorrow's vote. While Green parties are noted for drawing votes from across the political spectrum, parties like the NDP seem to be most impacted by this. This is not really good news for Lingenfelter, who is fighting for his political life in this election. 'Link' can't afford to lose ground to both Marchuk and Lau. Without a Liberal candidate in this race, as was the case in 2009, there is also no chance to blunt growth for the Saskatchewan Party or the Greens in this seat. Thus the race in Regina Douglas Park is one of high stakes for Lingenfelter; it will be a winner-take-all affair.

My only prediction about the contest in Regina Douglas Park, is that the eyes of the province will be upon this seat tomorrow night. The safe bet is to say Lingenfelter will win this seat again, but this is not an ordinary election. The Sask Party is polling at over 66 percent across the province, and Lingenfelter himself may be the most hated man in Saskatchewan political history, thanks to a two-year negative ad campaign against him from the Sask Party. Will the voters of Regina Douglas Park save Lingenfelter, or will they finish off his political career once and for all with a defeat? Inquiring minds want to know. Regardless of its outcome, the results from Regina Douglas Park will keep us all spellbound tomorrow, one way or another.

Constituency Profile: The Battlefords

The Battlefords constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on the Battlefords, please click here.

The Battlefords was first contested in the 1917 provincial election. For the most part, The Battlefords was a Liberal stronghold until the historic CCF victory in 1944. In two the three by-elections in the Battlefords held since 1944, the Liberals were the winners in 1950 and 1996, while the NDP took the other one in 1980. But as far as general elections go, The Battlefords has elected a CCF/NDP MLA in every provincial election from 1944 onward except for 1982 and 1999. Eiling Kramer, who was a powerful cabinet minister in the Douglas, Lloyd and Blakeney Governments, won The Battlefords eight times in a row - 1952, 1956, 1960, 1964, 1967, 1971, 1975 and 1978 - and never lost once.

The Battlefords disappeared as a constituency from 1995 to 2003, then returned to the political map. In 2003, former New Democrat MP Len Taylor beat Liberal MLA Jack Hillson to win The Battlefords, and was re-elected in 2007. Taylor served as Government House Leader and Minister of Health in the Calvert Government. After Calvert quit as NDP Leader, Taylor served as interim Opposition Leader from 2008 to 2009.

Taylor is running for re-election tomorrow against the same two individuals who challenged him in The Battlefords in 2007, those being Herb Cox of the Saskatchewan Party and Liberal Ryan Bater. But there is a twist. Bater is now Leader of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party, and whatever remaining resources the Liberals have are being poured into Bater's campaign. In fact, the Liberals made the monumental decision for this election to only run a handful of candidates, and to instead throw all of their resources into Bater's contest. It is a very bold and highly risky gambit, and it raises the stakes immensely in this race.

For Taylor, there is no tomorrow for him if he loses. Len has already had a political career at the federal, municipal and now provincial levels. Defeat for him tomorrow effectively marks the end of his political career, and the NDP lose a seat in an election where every seat will count for them.

But it is for the Saskatchewan Party where perhaps the stakes are even higher in this seat. Since the party was formed in 1997, The Battlefords has been the one seat where results are always disappointing for the Sask Party. The Sask Party came within 300 votes of winning this seat in 2007, and likely never imagined that Bater would become the next Liberal Leader, which complicates their plans to win the seat. As mentioned before the stakes are high for the Sask Party in this race. If Bater wins this seat tomorrow, it poses a threat to the Sask Party's dominance over free enterprise voters, at least in the long run. A big part of the rise of the Sask Party has been the Liberal Party's failure to create and maintain a consistent identity as a free enterprise party that does not kowtow to the hated federal Liberals. Those identity problems remain for the Saskatchewan Liberals, especially when they share the same name and the same red and white colour scheme as the federal party, and bring in federal politicians to campaign with Bater. But a Bater victory here tomorrow throws open the door for future competition for free enterprise voters in Saskatchewan, and that's something the Sask Party can't afford, at least right now.

The 2011 race in the Battlefords is one of the most intriguing and electrifying in this election; it captures the imagination. It is a seat where the Liberals are making a last stand; if Bater loses The Battlefords tomorrow, its game over for the Liberals, in a part of the world where the Liberal brand has become extinct. The outcome of The Battlefords race will be fascinating to watch.

As far as predictions go about the outcome of this seat, that is difficult to forecast. Sask Party support is exploding all over the province, but the governing party is locked in hand-to-hand combat with a second free enterprise party. Throw into the mix that neither the Sask Party nor the Liberals hold this seat and that Taylor is not going to go away easily, and we have a real donnybrook on our hands. That said, I'm not prepared to predict an outcome in this seat.

Just so he doesn't feel left out, Owen Swiderski rounds out the slate of candidates in The Battlefords - he is the Green candidate. Swiderski has a role to play tomorrow too, since Green parties tend to draw votes from across the political spectrum, but usually twice as many votes from the NDP as from non-NDP parties.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Riversdale

Saskatoon Riversdale constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on Saskatoon Riversdale, please click here.

It is the seat of kings, Saskatchewan NDP royalty. Saskatoon Riversdale has elected not one, but two New Democrat MLAs who were Premier of Saskatchewan, those being Roy Romanow and Lorne Calvert. Saskatoon Riversdale first emerged on Saskatoon's political map in the 1967 provincial election. A young lawyer named Roy Romanow won the NDP in this seat. In 1970, Romanow would come within a whisker of beating Allan Blakeney in the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race. The following year when the Blakeney Government came to power, Blakaney made Romanow Deputy Premier and Minister of Justice and Attorney General. Romanow's status for many years after is that he was the Dauphin, the crown prince of the NDP who would someday succeed Blakeney as Sask NDP Leader and become Premier of Saskatchewan. Romanow went on to easy re-election in Saskatoon Riversdale in 1971, 1975 and 1978. But in 1982, Romanow got caught in the "Monday Night Massacre" PC landslide. It is now the stuff of legend; Romanow lost Saskatoon Riversdale in that election by 19 votes to a young woman named JoAnn Zazelenchuk. Romanow spent the next 2 years in court in an attempt to have the results overturned, but without luck. But in 1986, Romanow made a huge comeback by winning back Saskatoon Riversdale in a landslide once again. The next year, Romanow was acclaimed to succeed Blakeney as NDP Leader, and became Leader of the Official Opposition. 1991 was not a disappointment to Romanow - he was easily re-elected in his seat, and became Premier of Saskatchewan in the "Monday Night Massacre Part 2" when his NDP won 55 of the 66 seats in the Legislature. Romanow was re-elected in 1995 and 1999, but his government ended up in a minority government. It wasn't supposed to happen, and although he salvaged a majority government by signing a coalition pact with the Liberals, his political fate was sealed. Romanow retired from politics in 2000, and a huge chapter in the history of Saskatoon Riversdale had come to an end.

When Lorne Calvert won the Sask NDP leadership race in 2001, he needed to find a seat in the Legislature. At the time the only vacant seat was Saskatoon Riversdale, so he contested the seat in the 2001 by-election, and won handily. Calvert won easy re-election in 2003 and again in 2007. The 2003 election win for Calvert was a shining moment for him; the party was widely expected to lose the election, but instead won 30 out of 58 seats. In his final run in 2007, Calvert won 56 percent of the vote in the constituency. In 2008, Calvert announced he would retire from politics, and the following year he resigned as the MLA for Saskatoon Riversdale.

In the June 2009 by-election in the southwest Saskatoon riding, Danielle Chartier won for the New Democrats with 53 percent of the vote. However she staved off a strong challenge from the Saskatchewan Party, who got 42 percent of the vote.

Chartier is running for re-election tomorrow in Saskatoon Riversdale. In all of the punditry about the unfolding of the vote, it is always mentioned that Chartier will likely be re-elected, in spite of the relatively close by-election results in 2009. The Liberals got a little over 2 percent of the vote in this seat in the 2009 by-election and are not running a candidate in the seat this time, so the little bit of vote they add to the Sask Party total will not be enough to ensure SP candidate Fred Ozirney victory. tomorrow. If Ozirney closes the gap and forces a close race on November 7, it will be because of the strong momentum behind the Sask Party's provincewide campaign. The gap of victory may close considerably for Chartier, but the conventional wisdom is that she will win again in Saskatoon Riversdale.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Massey Place

Saskatoon Massey Place is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on Saskatoon Massey Place, please click here.

Saskatoon Massey Place constituency used to be called Saskatoon Mount Royal. The riding changed names for the 2007 provincial election. As constituencies go, it is a relatively new one. Saskatoon Mount Royal first appeared on the province's political map for 1995. Eric Cline, a New Democrat MLA and lawyer, switched from Saskatoon Centre to this new riding, and was easily re-elected with 63 percent of the vote. His main challenger was Liberal candidate Maurice Vellacott, who in 1997 went on to become the Reform MP for what is now Saskatoon Wanuskewin. Cline served in several cabinet positions in the Romanow and Calvert Governments, with Finance being the top position. Cline won again in 1999 with 58 percent of the vote. In 2003 Cline secured victory one more time with 61 percent of the vote. Today Cline is an executive with Areva.

For the 2007 election, Cam Broten won the NDP nomination for Saskatoon Massey Place, and went on to win the constituency with 56 percent of the vote. Broten is the grandson of 1960s CCF MLA for Watrous, Broten has worked as a policy analyst for the provincial government. Cam is running again in tomorrow's provincial election. His main opponent is Ali Muzaffar of the Sask Party. Also Diane West is running for the Greens. When pundits talk about bedrock seats that the Sask NDP should be able to keep in tomorrow's election, they never mention Saskatoon Massey Place. With no Liberal candidate in the seat, the Sask Party will be running at a minimum of 42 percent in the riding. The Greens got 2 percent last time and will be good for at least that much support again. With the wind fully in the Sask Party's sails for this election, it is not unreasonable to suggest that the Sask Party is closing the gap in Saskatoon Massey Place and have made this seat competitive. Broten has a reasonably high profile from the past 4 years as NDP post-secondary education critic, so he has a decent chance of re-election. But with the momentum lifting Sask Party support across the province, it may be a royal battle in this seat come tomorrow night.

The difference between the NDP winning 3 or 4 seats in this election and salvaging 9 or 10, will depend on MLAs like Cam Broten to win again. The legendary political machine of the Saskatchewan NDP will need to deliver as best as possible in the face of the Sask Party juggernaut. Without the surging support for the Sask Party, Broten's re-election would be a slam dunk. But as it stands, this seat may hang in the balance. Much rides on the 'Get Out The Vote' effort that Broten and his team has ready for tomorrow.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Fairview

Saskatoon Fairview constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on Saskatoon Fairview, please click here.

The Saskatchewan NDP will be put to the ultimate test tomorrow in the Saskatoon Fairview constituency. By all measuring sticks, this seat has generally been an NDP stronghold.Whether or not that trend will continue will be put to the test right away.

The constituency of Saskatoon Fairview was carved out of the west side of Saskatoon for the 1982 provincial election. The winner was Ray Weiman of the PC Party. Weiman got 62 percent of the vote, compared with 34 percent for the NDP. But in 1986, the NDP candidate Bob Mitchell took another run at the seat, and this time he beat CFQC broadcaster Ross McQuarrie by almost two-to-one. Mitchell went on to win again in 1991 with 66 percent of the vote, compared with 23 percent for the Liberals. When the Romanow Government came to power, Mitchell became Justice Minister and Attorney General in the 'war cabinet'. Mitchell was re-elected in 1995 with 65 percent of the vote, but he didn't finish his term. Mitchell retired in 1999 and went back to practicing law. In the June 1999 by-election held in Saskatoon Fairview, former New Democrat MP Chris Axworthy won with 64 percent of the vote. Axworthy was also re-elected 3 months later with 57 percent, and became Minister of Justice, Attorney General, Aboriginal Affairs and Intergovernmental Affairs. When Romanow stepped down as Saskatchewan NDP Leader on September 25,2000, Axworthy ran in the leadership race and finished a close second. Axworthy didn't finish term term and resigned as the MLA for Saskatoon Fairview. Axworthy made two attempts in 2004 and 2006 to get elected as a Liberal MP, but failed both times.

In the 2003 by-election held in Saskatoon Fairview, the NDP kept the seat with Andy Iwanchuk being the new MLA. Iwanchuuk worked as a Staff Representative for CUPE Saskatchewan before his by-election win. Iwanchuk won again in 2003 and 2007, with 47 and 55 percent of the vote respectively. Iwanchuk serves as Opposition Whip and is a blood relative of Saskatchewan Liberal Leader Ryan Bater.

This time Iwanchuk faces a stiff challenge from the Sask Party. The candidate is Jennifer Campeau, a University Instructor and Ph.D. candidate. Jan Norris of the Green Party is the other candidate. Without a Liberal candidate in Saskatoon Fairview this time, the 11 percent that the Liberals got in 2007 will move to the Sask Party, giving the SP 45 percent of the vote right off the mark. Given the provincewide momentum behind Premier Wall and the Sask Party, Saskatoon Fairview might be a very close race, and there is the potential for an upset. A lot will depend tomorrow on the ability of Iwanchuk and his campaign team to get out their vote. If the fates are smiling, Iwanchuk may win again on November 7. I think this seat is a toss-up. Iwanchuk can never be counted out in a seat with a solid NDP voting history, and with an excellent political organization too. But the political tsunami building behind Brad Wall means MLAs like Iwanchuk can't take their re-election for granted this time. The difference between the NDP winning 3 or 4 seats or 9 or 10 seats tomorrow, will come down to how candidates like Iwanchuk fare in the face of the Brad Wall juggernaut.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Eastview

Saskatoon Eastview is outlined in red on the map above.

For more information on Saskatoon Eastview, please click here.

The constituency we now call Saskatoon Eastview has its origins in the 1967 provincial election campaign. It was first called Saskatoon Nutana South. The winning candidate was Dr. Austin Forsyth for the Liberals. Forsyth was defeated in 1971 by Herman Rolfes of the NDP. Rolfes would serve in the Blakeney Cabinet as Minister of Social Services, Minister of Continuing Education and Minister of Health. Rolfes switched ridings in 1975 and the new MLA in the renamed Saskatoon Eastview constituency was Liberal Glen Penner, who is remains a Saskatoon City Councillor to this very day. After his term was done, Penner retired and was succeeded in 1978 by Bernard Poniatowski of the NDP. But Poniatowski also served for just one term, having been swept out with most of his NDP colleagues in the 1982 "Monday Night Massacre". Kim Young was the winning candidate for the PCs in Saskatoon Eastview. After just one term, Young also retired and was replced by Ray Martineau, another Tory. But after serving just a few months as MLA for Saskatoon Eastview, Martineau mysteriously quits. In the 4 May 1988 by-election held in Saskatoon Eastview, the winner was Bob Pringle of the NDP, winning 53 percent of the vote. Pringle was easily re-elected in 1991 and later joined the Romanow Cabinet as Minister of Social Services. Later Pringle also served as Minister of Senior's Issues. By 1998, Pringle had obviously had enough of provincial politics, because he resigned and returned to Saskatoon and became a City Councillor. Pringle resigned from Council last year and has begun a 5 year term as the Province's Children's Advocate.

A by-election was held in June 1998 to replace Pringle. Liberal Leader Jim Melenchuk decided to run in the by-election, but it turned out to be a mistake. The by-election was won by NDP candidate Judy Junor, President of the Saskatchewan Union of Nurses. In hindsight, that by-election loss was another event that helped speed the Saskatchewan Liberals on their downward spiral to fringe party status. Anyone, Junor joined the NDP cabinet and would become Associate Minister of Health, Provincial Secretary, and later Minister of Learning. Junor has since been re-elected in Saskatoon Eastview in 1999, 2003 and 2007, and is seeking re-election tomorrow.

Junor's percentage of the vote has always been in the 45 percent range. But she faces her strongest challenge yet from Corey Tochor of the Saskatchewan Party. Junor only beat the Sask Party by 410 votes or four percentage points in 2007. This time there is no Liberal candidate in the seat; in 1998 the Liberals won 10 percent in Saskatoon Eastview. This means that Junor is in big trouble, since almost all of the Liberal vote will go to the Sask Party. Add in the strong provincial momentum behind the Saskatchewan Party, and Junor may be hard pressed to win again on November 7th. Victory is not impossible Junor, just not very likely.

Constituency Profile: Saskatoon Meewasin

Saskatoon Meewasin constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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This constituency was forged out of the old Saskatoon River Heights constituency in 1995 and before that it was called Saskatoon Mayfair. The Saskatchewan NDP have had a very good electoral history in this seat, in no small part because of the favourable split in the anti-NDP vote.

The modern electoral history of this seat begins in the 1991 "Monday Night Massacre Part 2" election when the Saskatchewan NDP win 55 out of 66 seats under the leadership of Roy Romanow. The winning MLA in Saskatoon River Heights was Carol Teichrob, a New Democrat, farmer, and Reeve and Councillor for the RM of Corman Park. Teichrob amassed over 4,900 votes, compared to over 3,500 hundred for former PC cabinet minister Ray Meiklejohn, and over 2,900 for Liberal candidate Ed Monuik. Teichrob was ushered into Romanow's 'war cabinet' of 11 cabinet ministers right away and became Minister of Education. Teichrob was comfortably re-elected in Saskatoon Meewasin in 1995 and became Minister of Municipal Government.

Two terms were enough for Teichrob, and she didn't run again in 1999. Instead Carol passed the torch to fellow New Democrat Carolyn Jones won with 44 percent of the vote, compard with 35 percent for the Saskatchewan Party, 16 percent for the Liberals and 4 percent for the fledgling New Green Alliance. Jones was MLA for just one term and did not seek re-election in 2003. Saskatchewan Liberal Leader David Karwacki decided to run in Saskatoon Meewasin in 2003. Karwacki ended up being challenged by Saskatoon lawyer Frank Quennell. 2003 turned out to be part one of a two-part, three-wey battle between Quennell, Karwacki and the Saskatchewan Party for control of that seat. Quennell ended up keeping the seat for the NDP with 40 percent of the vote, compared with 33 percent for Karwacki and 26 percent for Shelley Hengen of the Saskatchewan Party. It was the election where the Liberals were shut out of the Legislature after sharing two years in a diastrous coalition government with the NDP. Quennell was named Justice Minister in the Calvert Government,a nd in 2007 he went on to be re-elected in Saskatoon Meewasin. The 2007 results were more of a cliffhanger; Quennell won with 35 percent of the vote, Roger Parent of the Saskatchewan Party finished second with 32 percent, and Karwacki finished a dismal third with 30 percent.  These results had the effect of pushing the the Saskatchewan Liberal Party over the cliff into the abyss, especially since Karwacki had campaigned for the past two elections on a left-wing platform, which aliented his right-wing voting base.

Quennell is running for re-election tomorrow. Parent is back as the Saskatchewan Party candidate. the Liberals are running a token candidate in the seat. Tobi-Dawne Smith rounds out the slate as the Green candidate, and is currently President of the Green Party. It's expected most if not all of the support that Karwacki got in 2007 will disappear. While Quennell is likely to pick up some of that support since it originally came from the NDP in the first place (it is very rare in Saskatchewan provincial politics for voters to move between the Liberals and the NDP), a majority of the Liberal vote in this seat will likely migrate to the Saskatchewan Party. This is one of the seats that is almost certain to flip from NDP to Saskatchewan Party this time. Quennell is working hard to be re-elected, but collapse the Saskatchewan Liberal Party will deal him a cruel hand tomorrow. It is ironic that Quennell's defeat of Karwacki in 2003 and 2007 set off a dynamic that will cause his electoral defeat in the very same constituency.

Constituency Profiile: Moose Jaw Wakamow

Moose Jaw Wakamow constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Moose Jaw Wakamow is an urban seat with a significant rural portion to it. The Moose Jaw portion of the riding includes everything south of Caribou Street. This constituency is universally acknowledged as an NDP stronghold, having only gone PC once 1982. The MLA for this constituency has been NDP Deputy Leader Deb Higgins since 1999. Higgins became a high profile cabinet minister in the Calvert Government, holding down the positions of Minister of Labour and Minister of Learning. In 2009, Higgins ran in the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race, and it was some of her support that put Dwain Lingenfelter over the top on the second ballot.

There are constituencies the Saskatchewan NDP will lose in the provincial election tomorrow, but Moose Jaw Wakamow is not going to be one of them. The reason for this is Higgins has built a strong rapport with her voters in what is already an NDP stronghold. Higgins is well liked among her constituents, and it is this and her many years of hard work as an MLA and Cabinet Minister that will get her re-elected in what most pundits expect will be a low-tide election for the Saskatcheawn New Democrats.

Constituency Profile: Prince Albert Northcote

Prince Albert Northcote constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Prince Albert Northcote has a continuous electoral history that goes back to the 1905 provincial election. Before 1986, this constituency was called Prince Albert-Duck Lake, and before 1975 the constituency was known as Prince Albert West. Before 1967, the riding was called Prince Albert, and before 1917, it was called Prince Albert City. 

The first MLA for what is now Prince Albert Northcote was elected in 1905 as a Liberal. John Henderson Lamont became Attorney General in the Scott Government, and in 1907 he was appointed to the Supreme Court of Saskatchewan, later called the Saskatchewan Court of Appeal. In 1927, Lamont was appointed to the Supreme Court of Canada. Lamont, Alberta is named after him. In 1908 the next MLA for the riding was another Liberal, William Turgeon, who won the 1907 by-election in this seat, and become Provincial Secretary and Attorney General in the Liberal Government, In 1908, Turgeon was defeated by John Bradshaw of the Provincial Rights Party. Bradshaw was re-elected in Prince Albert City in 1912, but lost in 1917 to Charles McDonald. McDonald was originally from Scotland and settled in Prince Albert with his wife in 1901 McDonald was re-elected in 1921 by acclamation but did not run for re-election in 1925. Instead McDonald was elected as the Liberal MP for Prince Albert. But as soon as he was elected, he agreed to give up his seat so Prime Minister Mackenzie King could run in in Prince Albert in a by-election, since King had been defeated in York North in the general election. In the 1925 provincial election, McDonald was replaced by fellow Liberal Thomas Davis. Premier Jimmy Gardiner appointed Davis as the province's first Municipal Affairs Minister in 1926. Davis was re-elected in 1929 and 1934, having defeated a young Conservative candidate named John Diefenbaker in the 1929 election. Davis was re-elected in 1934 and was made Attorney General by Premier Bill Patterson. Davis was elected one more time in 1938, then in 1939 was appointed to the Saskatchewan Court of Appeal. The next MLA for Prince Albert was Harry Fraser, who won by acclamation. But in 1944 Prince Albert politics underwent a sea change when Lachlan McIntosh of the CCF beat Fraser in the historic CCF sweep of the province. McIntosh took on many cabinet positions in the Douglas and Lloyd Governments, including the portfolios of Agriculture, Co-operation, and Municipal Affairs. The McIntosh Mall in downtown Prince Albert is named  for him. McIntosh died of a heart attack in 1962, and in the subsequent by-election he was replaced by Liberal Davey Steuart. Steuart was Mayor of Prince Albert in the 1950s, and lost to McIntosh in Prince Albert constituency in 1960. But Steuart won the 1962 by-election and kept the seat in the 1964 when the Liberals came back to power after an absence of 20 years. Steuart became Minister of Health and implemented user fees for health care. In 1965 Steuart became Minister of Natural Resources and Deputy Premier, and in 1967 he finally became Minister of Finance. After the death of Ross Thatcher in 1971, Steuart became Saskatchewan Liberal Party Leader, and was re-elected in Prince Albert-Duck Lake one more time in 1975. Steuart was appointed to the Senate in 1976, and in the following by-election, the seat was won by Tory candidate Garnet Wipf. In 1978, Prince Albert-Duck Lake changed hands again when the seat was won by Jerry Hammersmith of the NDP. But in 1982, the Tories rolled over the province in an event now called the "Monday Night Massacre". Hammersmith only beat PC candidate Phil West by 9 votes in Prince Albert-Duck Lake, and results were later overturned in court. A by-election was held for the seat in February 1983, and Hammersmith lost to Sid Dutchak of the Tories by about 800 votes or 11 percentage points. Dutchak was made Minister of Justice in the Devine Government. In 1986 Dutchak was defeated by local businessman Eldon Lautermilch of the NDP. Lautermilch was re-elected in what became Prince Albert Northcote in 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003 and finally retired in 2007. From 1992 to 2007, Lautermilch held numerous cabinet positions including Energy and Mines, Rural Development, Economic and Cooperative Development, Intergovernmental Affairs, Forestry, Highways and Transportation, and Government House Leader.In 2007 Prince Albert Northcote was won by New Democrat Darcy Furber with 53 percent of the vote or a margin of over 1,100 votes.

Furber is seeking re-election tomorrow, and faces a stiff challenge from Victoria Jurgens of the Saskatchewan Party. Conventional wisdom on the fate of this seat in the 2011 provincial election is mixed; some feel Furber will be easily re-elected, others aren't so sure. There is no Liberal candidate in Prince Albert Northcote this time, which closes the gap between the NDP and the Sask Party in this seat to about 500 votes or 10 percentage points. With provincial election strongly behind the Saskatchewan Party this time, and with the Prince Albert economy growing quickly, this contest may be too close to call. Perhaps Furber will win again if the legendary "Little Orange Machine" can get all of his supporters to the polls tomorrow. This seat is probably best listed as a toss-up between the two parties.

Constituency Profile: Meadow Lake

Meadow Lake constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Meadow Lake has been a constituency in provincial politics for decades. However the boundaries for this constituency dramatically changed for the 2003 provincial election, away from the Alberta border. The winning MLA for Meadow Lake in 2003 was Maynard Sonntag, a senior cabinet minister in the NDP Government who was first elected in the old Meadow Lake constituency in 1991. Sonntag held several different cabinet positions in the Romanow and Calvert Governments, including Energy and Mines and the Saskatchewan Liquor and Gaming Authority.  In 2007, Sonntag lost by 17 votes to former Conservative MP Jeremy Harrison. Therefore, Meadow Lake is one of the most fierce battlegrounds in this election.


Harrison is Minister of Municipal Affairs in the Wall Government. His main opponent this time is Helen Ben of the NDP. There will be no Liberal candidate, so the 3 percent that the Liberals won last type gives Harrison a 3 percent lead off the NDP this time around. If the provincial momentum associated with Premier Wall carries over into Meadow Lake constituency, then Harrison shouldn't have any trouble being re-elected. But the NDP have a lot invested in this contest, and they are determind not to give up without a fight. If there is one seat in this election that the NDP could wrestle away from the Sask Party, it would be Meadow Lake. The problem for the NDP is that all of the Aboriginal voters in Meadow Lake already voted NDP in 2007, and the only new ones to add to that list are ones who turned 18 within the past 4 years, minus those who died recently. In conclusion, it is likely that the momentum behind the SaskParty and against the NDP will work in Harrison's favour this time. Expect Harrison to win tomorrow with a margin of 500 to 1,000 votes.                                                                                                                  
 

Constituency Profile: Regina Lakeview

Regina Lakeview constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Regina Lakeview constituency can trace its voting history back to the 1970s, but the current boundaries of the riding go back to the 1995 provincial election. Lawyer John Nilson was elected for the NDP in this seat in 1995, and has been the MLA here ever since. Nilson captured 48 percent of the vote in Regina Lakeview in 2007, compared to 32 percent for the Sask Party and 16 percent for the Liberals. Nilson is running again, and the Sask Party has recruited lawyer, former U of R President and former Manitoba Liberal Robert Hawksin. There is no Liberal candidate in Regina Lakeview this time, Green candidate Mike Wright is running an active, on the ground campaign in this seat.

Regina Lakeview is heavily populated by government and Crown employees, and lawyers. There is one more thing to be considered, and that is the addition of the new Harbour Landing neighbourhood to this seat. Without a Liberal candidate in Regina Lakeview, the Sask Party is on equal footing with the NDP. An active Green candidate further undermines the NDP in this seat, but adding Harbour Landing into the mix is the thing that will push Hawkins over the top in this seat tomorrow. Look for a Sask Party win in Regina Lakeview. The last time the NDP lost this seat was in 1982, during the "Monday Night Massacre".

Constituency Profile: Cumberland

Cumberland constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Cumberland constituency can trace its electoral history back to the historic 1912 provincial election, when the Liberals won 45 out of 53 seats, and 57 percent of the vote. Cumberland's first MLA was Deakin Hall, a Liberal. The 1912 results were declared void for Cumberland. Hall won the 1913 by-election, and won re-election in 1917 by acclamation. In 1921, George Langley was acclaimed here for the Liberals. But in a 1922 by-election Hall won here again for the Liberals, and was acclaimed again as MLA in 1925. Hall was re-elected in 1929 with 85 percent of the vote, and with 91 percent in 1938. But in 1944, Hall lost to Leslie Lee of the CCF; it marked the end of Hall's long political career. In 1948, the Liberals took back Cumberland for the last time, with Lorne Blanchard as the candidate. But in 1952, Bill Berezowsky won in Cumberland for the CCF with 52 percent of the vote, and this seat has been in the CCF/NDP column ever since.

Berezowsky was re-elected in 1956, 1960, 1964, 1967 and 1971. In 1975 Berezowsky retired and was replaced by Norm MacAuley, a fellow New Democrat. MacAuley was re-elected in 178, but in 1982 Lawrence Yew was elected for the NDP, just one of eight for the party after the "Monday Night Massacre". But Yew was a one-term MLA; in 1986, Keith Goulet became the NDP candidate and kept Cumberland for  the party. Goulet was re-elected in 1991, 1995 and 1999. Goulet was first person of Aboriginal ancestry to become a Saskatchewan Cabinet Minister. His portfolios included SGI, Education and Northern Affairs. Goulet retired in 2003 and was replaced by CBC Journalist Joan Beatty.

Beatty won with 69 percent of the vote in Cumberland in 2003 and was named Provincial Secretary and Minister of Culture, Youth and Recreation by Premier Calvert. Beatty was re-elected in 2007 with 66 percent of the vote. But in January 2008, barely 2 months after being re-elected, she quit to become the federal Liberal candidate in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River. The move angered people in both the NDP and the Liberals, and in the end Beatty was never elected as MP. In the June 2008 by-election held to replace Beatty, the NDP kept Cumberland with Doyle Vermette as the new MLA - but just barely. There was no Liberal candidate in the by-election (a sign of things to come for the 2011 provincial election) and the Greens fielded a candidate who won 181 votes or 6 percent of the vote. The Sask Party ran Metis politician Dale McAuley, who won 45 percent of the vote and came within 164 votes of being Vermette with his 50 percent.

Vermette is running for re-election, but is being challenged by Joe Hordyski of the Sask Party and Samuel Hardlotte of the Greens. For the second election in a row, there will be no Liberal candidate in Cumberland. If the trend from the 2008 by-election holds, then the Sask Party could win this NDP fortress. But if the results from 2007 prevail, then Vermette should be in good shape. The conventional wisdom is that the NDP will keep this seat, but with the Sask Party polling at 66 percent provincewide in the final days of the election campaign, a Sask Party win in Cumberland can't be ruled out either. This seat could very well be a toss-up, take your pick.

Constituency Profile: Regina Northeast

Regina Northeast constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Regina Northeast has been an NDP fiefdom since it was created for the 1967 provincial election. The first MLA for this seat was Walter Smishek, a trade unionist who played a significant role in developing Medicare in Saskatchewan, and was Minister of Health, Finance and Urban Affairs in the Blakeney Government. Smishek won in 1964, 1967, 1971, 1975 and 1978, but was defeated in 1982 by Russell Sutor of the PC Party. Sutor won 57 percent of the vote in Regina North East, which stands out as the only NDP loss (so far) in the riding's history. But Sutor quit suddenly in 1985, and in the subsequent by-election, former Humboldt MLA Ed Tchorzewski won this seat back for the NDP, giving them a ninth seat in the Legislature at time when their representation was at a historic low. Tchorzewski was easily re-elected in Regina North East in 1986, then switched ridings for 1991, which gave Ned Shillington the oppotunity to run here. Shillington was the NDP MLA for Regina Centre from 1975 to 1991. He served as Minister of Consumer Affairs in the 1970s,and later served as Associate Minister of Finance in the Romanow Government. Shillington retired in 1999 and is now a consultant in Calgary. After Shillington retired, Ron Harper became the MLA for Regina Northeast. Harper had been the MLA for Pelly from 1991 to 1995, but lost by 50 votes and becamse NDP MP Lorne Nystrom's Chief of Staff in 1997. Harper also beat retired Regina Chief of Police Murray Langgard to win the NDP nomination in Regina Northeast. Harper was easily re-elected in 2003 and 2007, and was named to cabinet just before the NDP lost government.

Harper has retired and the new NDP candidate is Dwayne Yasinowski, an NDP caucus researcher. The Sask Party candidate is Kevin Doherty, a Vice-President with SaskPower who has much private sector experience in BC. Doherty has been campaigning here for 2 years, and without a Liberal candidate in the race, Doherty looks like he is going to win this seat on November 7th. Look for Doherty to be added to Premier Wall's Cabinet in the near future.

Constituency Profile: Regina Dewdney

Regina Dewdney constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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The Regina Dewdney constituency is one of the most fascinating ridings in Regina. Although it has only been on the political map since 1991, it is a seat that is gaining more and more profile with each passing election.

The first MLA for Regina Dewdney was Ed Tchorzewski, a heavyweight in the Saskatchewan NDP. Ed was the MLA for Regina North East from 1985 to 1991, but moved into the new riding when it opened up. Before that he was the MLA for Humboldt from 1971 to 1982. In his 1991 win, Tchorzewski captured 69 percent of the vote. Tchorzewski held several portfolios in the Blakeney and Romanow Governments; the pinnacle of his career was as Minister of Finance, not once but twice. "Torch" was the last Finance Minister in the Blakeney Government, and the first Finance Minister in the Romanow Government. Tchorzewski was re-elected in 1995 with 69 perent of the vote, then quit provincial politics in 1999 and became President of the federal NDP.

In the June 1999 by-election held in Regina Dewdney, he was replaced by fellow New Democrat Kevin Yates. Yates was Chief Negotiator for SGEU before the by-election win. Yates turned back a strong challenge from the Liberals by winning with 48 percent of the vote. In a rematch later in the 1999 provincial election, Yates won again with 47 percent of the vote. Since that time, Yates turned back a strong challenge in 2003 by beating former Saskatchewan Roughrider and Separate School Trustee Rob Bresciani of the Saskatcheawn Party, winning 55 percent of the vote compared to 28 percent for the Sask Party. In 2007, the Sask Party came within 500 votes of beating Yates; the SP got 40 percent of the vote, compared to 45 percent for Yates.

Yates was Minister of Corrections and Public Safety in the NDP Government and later Minister of Community Services. Kevin played a significant role in helping decide the outcome of the last 2 Saskatchewan NDP leadership contests with his sale of memberships for the winning candidate. Yates is always underestimated and should never be dismissed outright. That said, Yates faces a significant challenge this time from another Saskatchewan Roughrider, this time Gene Makowsky, again for the Saskatchewan Party. The Sask Party has made a very big deal about running Makowsky in Regina Dewdney, so the stakes are high here for both parties.

What is very different in Regina Dewdney this time compared to 2007, is the collapse of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party. In 2007, Shaine Peters got 13 percent of the vote, or 1,083 votes. While Regina Dewdney is the only Regina constituency with a Liberal candidate this time, the candidate is in name only; there is no Liberal campaign in the seat. Therefore the Liberal vote is in play. As in most other seats across the province, I expect most of the Liberal vote will end up in the Sask Party column this time in Regina Dewdney, and that would be the case regardless of whether Makowsky was the Sask Party candidate or not. Yates has to hope that most of the Liberal vote stays home this time, or else he will be in trouble. Most pundits predict Makowsky will win Regina Dewdney on November 7, and I also fall into that camp. The collapse of the Liberals and the strong momentum behind the Sask Party has created an electoral tsunami that will wash away most of the NDP MLAs, and unfortunately for Yates, barring a miracle, he falls in this category.

Constituency Profile: Regina Walsh Acres

Regina Walsh Acres is outlined in red on the map above.

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Regina Walsh Acres is a relatively new constituency in provincial politics. It was formed for the 2003 provincial election out of slices of several neighbouring seats. The winning MLA in 2003 was Sandra Morin of the NDP, a Safeway cashier. Morin was re-elected in 2007, without a Sask Party opponent. The Sask Party candidate was withdrawn before election day after allegations were made against him. This time, there is most definitely a Sask Party candidate in Regina Walsh Acres. His name is Warren Steinley, and he is currently Director of Research for the Sask Party Caucus. After this Monday, he will be the next MLA for Regina Walsh Acres when he defeats Sandra Morin. After the three Sask Party incumbents in Regina are re-elected on Monday night, Regina Walsh Acres will be next Sask Party gain in Regina.

The other candidate in Regina Walsh Acres is Bart Soroka for the Greens. This is Bart's first run for public office.

Constituency Profile: Regina South

Regina South constituency is outlined in red on the map above.

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Regina South first appeared on the political map in Saskatchewan in 1964. The Liberals won the election, and the winning candidate in Regina South was also a Liberal, Gordon Grant. Grant had been Mayor of Regina, and Gordon Road, Grant Drive and Grant Road in south Regina are all named after him. Upon entering the Thatcher Government, Grant held several cabinet positions including Highways and Transportation, Industry and Commerce, SaskPower, Telephones, and Public Health. Grant oversaw the introduction of utilization fees as Public Health Minister, an event that lead to the defeat of the Thatcher Government in 1971. Grant was re-elected in 1967 and 1971, and retired in 1975. Grant was replaced by fellow Liberal Stuart Cameron, who served for one term. After his term as MLA, Camerson was apppointed as a judge, and remains so to this day. In 1978 the Tories won Regina South, with Paul Rousseau as the winning candidate. Rousseau lost to Grant Devine in the 1979 PC Leadership race, and was added to cabinet when the Tories formed Government after the "Monday Night Massacre" in 1982. Rousseau held several positions in cabinet; Industry and Commerce was probably his most senior position. Rousseau was dumped from cabinet in 1985, and he chose not to run for re-election in 1986. Jack Klein, the PC MLA for Regina North, won the Tory nomination in Regina South, and went on to win the seat in the 1986 election. Klein held numerous portfolios in both terms of the Devine Government, including Urban Affairs and Trade and Investment. Klein ran for re-election in 1991 but finished third behind Serge Kujawa of the NDP and the Liberals. Kujawa was a famous Crown Prosecutor prior to winning in 1991. Kujawa was Crown Prosecutor in both the Colin Thatcher and David Milgaard trials. Kujawa only served as MLA for one term. In 1995 he was replaced as the MLA for Regina South by fellow New Democrat Andrew Thomson. Thomson was the first person born after the 'baby boom' to become a Saskatchewan cabinet minister. In 2006, Thomson was appointed Minister of Finance by Premier Calvert. But Thomson abrupty retired from Saskatchewan politics in 2007 and did not run for re-election. Today, Thomson has a successful executive career in Toronto with Cisco Systems.

In 2007, Regina South was narrowly won by the Saskatchewan Party. Bill Hutchinson beat Yens Pedersen of the NDP by 255 votes to become the MLA for Regina South. Hutchinson was a City Councillor before joining the Wall Government, and is Minister of Tourism, Sport, Parks and Culture. Pedersen is a lawyer with roots in the National Farmers Union, and finished a respectable third in the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race in 2009. Both Hutchinson and Pedersen are facing off again on November 7th, but this time without a Liberal candidate in the mix. Hutchinson captured about 44 percent of the vote last time, Pedersen 41 percent, and the Liberal candidate got about 12 percent. In the past, the NDP couldn't win in Regina South without the free enteprise third party winning over 15 percent of the vote in that seat. Without a Liberal candidate at all in Regina South this time, it will be impossible for the NDP to gain this seat back. We should look for Hutchinson to be re-elected here on November 7th, with possibly 60 percent of the vote or more.